It looks like AUDC has traded significantly fewer shares in May, June and July confirming and rebounding from the lows after the secondary than were traded in March and April when the secondary took the share price from $9.10 to $5.29. I'm thinking there aren't shares available for sale in quantity until the share price gets back to at least the $8 level and maybe not until new highs since a run to $8 would look very impressive on the chart?
Throw in short interest and it doesn't matter if it is coming down slowly and may have only increased as traders gamed the secondary . Short interest and the likelihood of a good report and/or improved guidance could push shares back up to $9 in a heck of a hurry and past $9 if volume remains depressed and shorts have to cover at higher prices. I don't think there are enough shares short to catapult shares into the $11 to $14 range near term but a bounce over $9 would be welcome and set shares up to work their way higher through year end?
The RSI number also looks good. RSI bounced off 40 on the last dip. If AudioCodes has a good RSI number until earnings then beats and/or raises guidance then it'll be very interesting to see how volume and share price play out. Throw in a golden cross and we could be back over $9 in a hurry on the way to $11.
Multiple potential acquirers are a catalyst to drive the share price higher as the market begins to discount a buyout. The divergent focus of potential acquirers primary businesses begs the question if the breadth of interest in AudioCodes products and services argues for a future as a high growth rate, high margin business.
Take that and the estimates in audcgainerforme's post and growth rate times trailing 12 months EPS is arguing for a share price in the low $20s in five months on fundamentals. Is it a bullish scenario? Yes it is. Is it impossible or improbable? Not so much. Anybody who thinks shares can't trade at 100X trailing at year end needs to take a look at current TTM EPS.
I hear you. Time to focus on the long term and yield to cost basis if you're sitting on gains? I sold out a couple bucks below the lows and am back in a few @.20 below this mornings price. Same thing with NNA only I didn't sell as many shares on the run up so I have a lower cost basis and terrific yield to cost basis.
I think there is something to be said for Navios presenting an opportunity to invest in an industry that more so than the markets in general is dominated by names that are trades not investments. We get the cyclical upside with risk moderated by the dividends and assets.
When RSI drops below 30 on NM that is a pretty good indicator shares are oversold and will bounce. I was early/bullish on my add on buys so I'm waiting to see if we get to stupid oversold to 25 to 27 RSI before I average down.
Add AAPL and IBM getting together to leverage the cloud, apps and handheld devices for big business to what MSFT is trying to do with Lync and a couple of thoughts come to mind. Cloud based everything for business is gaining momentum, and, does the AAPL/IBM partnership but any pressure on HP and Dell to try to solidify their position with cloud based communications by buying out AUDC?
I don't have a decided opinion of whether or not IBM is nimble enough or has sufficient interest in small and medium business to want AudioCodes share of cloud based communications: if HP or Dell thinks IBM might have an interest then the conversation starts getting interesting. If all the major players are working with AudioCodes that also underpins the super bullish scenario where growth starts to explode and the market starts discounting AudioCodes remaining independent. $1B is chump change in the IPO market these days and @$25 per share here.
There are risks aplenty with the super bullish scenarios but the parts still have to be worth a nice premium to the current share price and a near term buyout still figures to be between a nice premium to the current share price and $1B for the company. Buy 'em on low volume here if you're not all in already?
AUDC vs. Russell 2000 and NASDAQ the last five days is interesting: ADUC +5%, NASDAQ flat and Russell 2000 -2%. AUDC is also running well ahead of both indexes for 1, 2 and 5 years.
It will be interesting to see if volume begins to creep up before earnings. Drifting higher while the market is in a funk two weeks to earning could get real interesting real quick.
Nothing wrong with the masses getting a little excited about the stock in my book. I do think $11 to $17 a share is doable by year end which would also count as a double. If I wanted to quibble with remzzzzze I'd say the sloppy secondary was the primary catalyst giving investors and traders a shot at an easy double this year. A double from here needs some help from the analysts or estimates or revenues/EPS to come up but a double from the lows in April and May is a pretty safe bet.
There is still much to do to get from Microsoft's new CEO wanting the company to become “the productivity and platform company for the mobile-first and cloud-first world” to the most bullish AudioCodes scenarios but it sure doesn't hurt our cause any that Microsoft is talking about mobile and the cloud as a key to the companies future. The news flow is starting to go our way. Maybe an analyst or two will catch on?
I trying if for no other reason than to confound the nattering nabobs. The press release this morning is a plus too: nice to see following the earnings announcement.
I look at NM as more of a buy and hold. I bailed out a couple dollars short of the high last year but started reestablishinga position in April and May. I added a few shares at $9.05 yesterday for a lot of the same reasons you covered part of your short. With Europe on the outs this morning I'll probably rethink adding additional shares unless shares look oversold relative to the market or some of the issues you highlighted sort themselves out.
The cash and NSALI should mitigate risk nicely here.
NNA has dumped 1/3 of its value a couple of times the last couple of years and both times shares looked stupid cheap if the yield was going to hold up -- which it has. I added shares back I traded off @$4 a while ago at an average of $3.61 because I think he story has developed and there is value here. I don't think shares are going much lower because of the yield and I don't think $3.61 vs. $3.31 or $3.21 is going to make much of a difference a year or two or three down the road.
I added a few trading shares at $6.75 this morning and I'm still looking at $6.45 as a stupid cheap number we don't figure to get to as a place to add some more. The slow march back from the sell off after the secondary is starting to look very bullish. The safety net is the parts of AudioCodes are worth significantly more than the current share price given how AUDC technology and offerings are evolving and how cheap money is right now as evidenced by everything from the APKT buyout to the recent action in SONS.
What griffin said plus last I checked foo was going short as shares topped $10 looking for a pullback. I also like the dividend in the context of what I'm not earning on cash and the principal risk associated with bonds when I balance that all against the upside for NM with NSALI, etc. More so when I can buy shares on weakness.
Not so much. I'm just messing with the market while it is messing with me and trying to add a few shares. I'm way overweight AUDC shares at an average cost of $2.47 ex the trading shares I own at $5.78. If I was thinking about getting in or building a position here I wouldn't wait for $6.45 here.
...or a good report and/or guidance or analyst estimates increasing. The additional trading shares I wanted at $6.61 and didn't get a while back I want at $6.45 now -- and we'll see if I get them this time.
The surge the past few days wasn't as pronounced/obvious as past surges for the percentage move or increase in volume but it is there if you look for it and the low volume consolidation this morning confirms it.
My POV is longs want to see this kind of action all the way back to $9 ahead of a less confounding run to $11 on a good quarter or other news which gets us started on closing the gap to $14. The quirkier the trade is here the better our prospects for the long haul.
I'll consider selling the trading shares I added in my Roth IRA at $5.78 the end of April and beginning of May between $9 and $11 just to balance things out a bit but I don't see the point trading shares at these levels when the upside figures to be at least 25% and maybe 50% or more near term.
Scale in and scale out. It is a mico-cap with a lot of potential and not a lot of buzz -- which is why you're still underwater? When the wind changes it is a micro cap with a lot of potential and a relatively small float that needs to more than triple to get to a $1B valuation. There are no guarantees on the most bullish scenarios but I don't see how shares aren't worth at least $500M plus cash for parts which is nice return over your break even point, no?
The college I work at switched to VoIP phones several years ago because the incremental savings vs. legacy carriers in a high labor cost environment was compelling. AudioCodes getting a bigger piece of that pie or getting a buyout in the low double digits as a result of that surge didn't come to pass as the markets crashed from late 2007 through 2009.
Is it different now that customers are increasingly looking for more feature rich solutions? I think it is. To the extent customers demand more features and better solutions -- when interoperability is trumped by OTT, mobile, cloud, etc. -- the bullish grow or get bought out a significant gain from current levels are fully back in play. The safety net is still the sum of the parts are worth more than the current share price.