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Morgan Stanley Message Board

larrypaige98 142 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 2, 2015 9:18 AM Member since: May 18, 2012
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  • Aluminum giant Alcoa is also a broken stock, but not a broken business. The company is transforming itself into a specialized-metals business -- one that makes lightweight and high-performance materials. With the shares down 30% in the first half of 2015, now is the time to own the stock, which is trading at its 52-week low.
    Despite some hiccups in its transition, where core aluminum revenue has been under pressure, the company's quarterly and full-year earnings are projected to grow.
    The stock has a consensus buy rating with its average analyst 12-month price target of $16.50 suggesting more than a 50% gain from the current level of around $11. Investors looking for a solid long-term bet for the next 12 to 18 months should consider Alcoa as a value play.

    Finally, investors may want to consider ExOne, a maker of 3-D printers, whose stock has fallen 32% in the first half of 2015, as the company has missed Wall Street's earnings estimates for nine straight quarters.
    Must Read: Three ETFs Billionaire Ray Dalio Loves and Why You Should, Too
    Still, in the next five years, the company's earnings are projected to increase at an annual rate of 40%. That suggests that if or when the 3-D-printing industry takes off, ExOne may emerge as a leader. The company recently announced that it has qualified six new metals that are compatible with its direct line of 3-D printers, which gives its customers more control of what kinds of materials consumers can print objects with.
    That can be the kind of advantage it needs to separate itself from its competitors such as Stratasys (SSYS) and 3D Systems (DDD). While ExOne's lack of execution remains a concern, its average analyst 12-month price target of $13 is an almost 20% gain from the current level. I wouldn't recommend diving head-first into these shares, however. But for the second half of 2015, playing contrarian with a small position may be rewarding.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 29, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Smart people won't be selling today but rather looking to buy.

    That's right!

  • Reply to

    Alcoa Management

    by con_cern_d Jun 29, 2015 10:21 AM
    larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 29, 2015 10:33 AM Flag

    Losses? No sorry, more like around + .25 profit

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 29, 2015 10:30 AM Flag

    This happens every year. Greece gives the talking heads on TV something to talk about all day and allows the fleecing of the weak sheepies. Everything will finish higher by end of week.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 26, 2015 11:39 AM Flag

    recharge the main battery. “We don't compete with the lithium-ion, we complement it,” he said.
    The three European automakers, unidentified because of confidentiality agreements, have done testing and will do more, including critical crash testing, Kilmer said. “Like anything automotive, it has to go through extensive testing. It's a multi-year process to get to where a consumer can use it. One of the automakers tested it from minus 45 to 45 degrees (Celsius). That was a big hurdle,” Kilmer said.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 26, 2015 11:37 AM Flag

    has started construction of a $5 billion lithium-ion battery plant in Nevada that CEO Elon Musk says is vital to Tesla's goal of mass-market sales of electric cars and driving down production costs as much as 30 percent. The $100,000 Tesla Roadster's battery is good for 245 miles, but an upgrade to 400 miles between charges is in the works, the company said last month.
    But research by Carnegie Mellon University professors Jeremy Michalek and Jay Whitacre found that economies of scale in battery manufacturing are exhausted quickly. Beyond a certain point, higher volume alone won't do much to cut cost, they said.
    “Large factories alone aren't likely to solve the battery cost problem,” Michalek said. He and Whitacre declined to comment on the Alcoa-Phinergy battery.
    Alcoa said the cost of using the battery will be the same or lower than hybrid vehicles, and competitive with gasoline.
    COMPLEMENTARY APPROACH
    Lynn Trahey, a battery technology researcher at the Argonne National Laboratory in Chicago, said Alcoa and Phinergy are using the right approach.
    “Their aluminum-air batteries are recharged mechanically, meaning someone swaps out the components for fresh ones,” Trahey said. “They reportedly last a long time on one charge and have affordable components.
    “Cars need batteries that can be electrically recharged as well, like lithium-ion. Each technology serves a purpose. When artfully integrated in a car, you get the best of both worlds.”
    The lithium-ion battery in the electric Nissan Leaf has range of about 120 miles between charges, Nissan says on its website. The hybrid Toyota Prius, which uses a gas engine and battery system, has a range of about 500 miles, according to information on its website.
    The aluminum-air battery is a range extender, not the primary battery. That's because lithium-ion batteries have greater power output to drive a vehicle, Kilmer said. Aluminum-air batteries have more energy but release it slowly, making them ideal to

    cont...

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 26, 2015 11:32 AM Flag

    Phinergy spokeswoman Judith Yavniely said the company so far has demonstrated its technology on a fully electric vehicle and on an electric boat.
    The battery is Alcoa's second recent entry into automotive development. It has built three aluminum sheet plants to provide lighter-weight metal to replace steel, most notably in the new Ford F-150 pickup that is 700 pounds lighter because of its use of aluminum. In the aluminum-air battery, a six-by-six inch plates of aluminum act as the positive terminal, using about 220 pounds per vehicle, and would be replaced rather than recharged when power runs low.
    The battery could have financial advantages for Alcoa. “This is an exciting technology. It opens a whole additional chain of revenues. ... It's very cool for the future, and we know it works,” CEO Klaus Kleinfeld told securities analysts in November.
    Alcoa has a joint development deal with Phinergy to be the exclusive supplier of high-purity aluminum needed for the battery and to jointly own technology they develop.
    Kilmer said Alcoa's estimate on the amount of aluminum it could supply at “a couple of smelters worth, over time. We think it can grow to that volume,” he said.
    BIG PRODUCTION
    John Tumazos of Tumazos Very Independent Research of Holmdel, N.J., said selling aluminum for the battery “could be a big number for them” if Phinergy's technology proves commercially successful.
    If the aluminum-air battery becomes the success Kilmer described, two smelters' worth of aluminum, it could mean production of 400,000 metric tons a year, Tumazos said.
    “It would be one of their five largest customers if it grew to two smelters of 200,000 tons each. That would be over 10 percent of their smelter output and 8 percent of their shipments, but Phinergy has to be commercially successful. That volume would rank in the same league as InBev, Coke, Pepsi, Ford, GM and Boeing and other large customers.”
    Batteries for electric and hybrid cars is big business.
    Tesla Motors Inc.

    cont...

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 26, 2015 11:26 AM Flag

    Alcoa, Israeli company collaborate on aluminum-air battery

    Aluminum's light weight is giving Alcoa Inc. a leg up on other metals in making vehicles go farther on a gallon of gas, but the world's most abundant metal may help motorists drive even longer distances without using any gasoline.

    Alcoa has been working for two years with Phinergy Inc. of Israel on technology that taps energy in aluminum. The aluminum-air battery would work in tandem with a lithium-ion main battery, recharging it to extend the range of hybrid and electric vehicles by 1,000 miles, they say.

    A “breakthrough” by Phinergy removed a roadblock and raised hope that the technology, abandoned in the 1980s by researchers, can become a reality, Alcoa's chief technology officer said.

    “This is a substantial technology,” Alcoa's Ray Kilmer said. “When we saw it, we said, ‘Wow. That's the opportunity to make the aluminum-air battery work.' ”

    A team of a dozen scientists and technicians at the Alcoa Technical Center in Upper Burrell is working to resolve remaining logistic and economic obstacles. Alcoa is looking at a 2019-20 time frame for the battery to reach consumers, he said.

    Phinergy's breakthrough is based on air-electrode technology that keeps carbon-dioxide out of the system, first developed at Bar-Ilan University in Israel and licensed to Phinergy when the company was founded in 2008.

    ENVIRONMENTAL APPEAL

    Beyond extending vehicle range, Kilmer said the aluminum-air battery has environmental advantages — because it does not use or produce carbon dioxide, the battery has “a negative carbon footprint,” he said.

    That is “very attractive” to European automakers, who must cut carbon dioxide emission levels by 40 percent by 2021 under European Union mandates. American automakers are concentrating on increasing fuel mileage to 45 mpg by 2025 under government rules. Three major automakers in Europe are building vehicles using the aluminum-air battery for testing, Kilmer said.

    cont....

  • Reply to

    RTI ownership

    by stanandterri Jun 24, 2015 8:30 PM
    larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 24, 2015 8:49 PM Flag

    Exactly. Thats why all the doom and gloom crew saying the deal wont go thru is laughable.
    Very little retail ownership: 3%

    % of Shares Held by All Insider and 5% Owners: 2%
    % of Shares Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 95%
    % of Float Held by Institutional & Mutual Fund Owners: 97%

  • Reply to

    Net Institutional Purchases

    by yousef.salama Jun 23, 2015 9:59 AM
    larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 23, 2015 7:44 PM Flag

    Oh boy! Pages and pages of ignored posts from the usual suspects and just a few meaningful posts. Anyways, celeste you'll now notice AA and RTI are moving in tandem. 2.8315 AA shares at $11.74 for 1 share of RTI equals $33.24 the price of RTI today. Wall Street is already factoring this deal as done. AA will buy RTI for much cheaper than anticipated, contrary to the board doomer's AA has not overpaid for RTI. Sorry Kids.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 22, 2015 6:07 PM Flag

    Quite eye opening, this guy has been wrong since 2008. Impressive contrarian indicator.

  • Reply to

    "analyst" Josh W. Sullivan ?

    by stks401 Jun 22, 2015 5:41 PM
    larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 22, 2015 6:06 PM Flag

    Paid shills, nothing more, nothing less. The only people who will listed and beat their drums are the doomers populating this mb.

  • The United States imports aluminum from China (5%) it gets most of its imported aluminum from Canada (62%)

    34% of aluminum was used for transportation, 26% for packaging, 12% in building, 9% for electrical, 8% for machinery and 7% for consumer durables.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 16, 2015 8:08 PM Flag

    I think the only solution is to use the ignore feature. One particular poster has targeted most of the long time posters and longs here and the only solution is to put him on ignore or to end up in a war of words with him. Which has proven to advance their agenda of creating chaos here and thru intimidation, keep any longs from posting relevant information. Much of the relevant information on AA is drowned out due to their baiting. I dont even respond to it anymore and my ignore list grows daily but at least I can participate and catch some relevant info. You'll figure out who to block soon enough. GLTY

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 11, 2015 1:03 PM Flag

    As we all know, this is just a shake down of the weak. And judging from the messages here, there are quite a few weak hands that will be shaken out. All those with fortitude and that actually own this stock, know this is a $22 stock. RTI deal should be completed soon too.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 11, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    And none of those planes will be using Chinese aluminum either. Only Certified aluminum from ISO distributors.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 9, 2015 2:00 PM Flag

    Absolutely, I have no problems long term. I refuse to average up or else I would have bought more here.

  • larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 9, 2015 1:34 PM Flag

    Well unfortunately, almost all of this started back in December with the onset of a new troll, newemaillouis. With many of the posters falling for his trolling. Of course, we had lovemoney100 here before ,disrupting things. He's still here as stock_whiz, sub4guy, drftwd, getsickfast and a host others. Same troll. Just put them on ignore as you see fit.
    GLTY

  • Reply to

    aluminum

    by stocktraderathome Jun 8, 2015 7:41 AM
    larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 8, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    All you will get is the usual bashers who are here to beat their chests about how right they are and bash the stock continuously. It's laughable to even pay attention to these guys, as they claim to have bought in December at the highs of 17's yet none of them actually understands WHAT Alcoa is actually doing. One claims AA overbought RTI the other ID claims they are underpaying and will have to pay more. When the share out of weak hands ends, they will ALL claim they predicted the exact moment when AA was going up. Of course they predict something new everyday.

    We all know, at least the real and intelligent longs that AA is about end products. IF you want to see a real aluminum play see CENX which is down a whole lot more than AA.

    2015 will be a repeat 2013 4 months is all it will take to push it to the 20's.

  • Reply to

    The List Grows!

    by celesteshop Jun 4, 2015 9:48 AM
    larrypaige98 larrypaige98 Jun 4, 2015 11:36 AM Flag

    I thought you were talking about all of sub4guys alts such as drftwd, and adding them to our growing ignore list!

MS
39.00-0.36(-0.91%)Jul 2 4:05 PMEDT