That may have been due to the timing guidelines given much earlier - in Sept., the guideline they gave to report topline HD results was "early 2014." Many saw that as the first half of the first quarter (or mid-Feb); otherwise, why not just say "1st quarter of 2014," or "March."
Their timing hit that deadline. They halted the stock and made the announcement of results just before the open of the 2nd half of Feb.
My thinking is that that was the timing they were aiming to stay within, which just happened to coincide with the last week before options expiry on Feb. 22.
Investron definitely isn't one of our "kids" and doesn't care much about posters here or where you are based, so I don't understand why you can't be content to knock him on the Tekmira board, especially when you folks do well.
There have been weeks upon weeks when investron is the only poster here, or one of just a very few. So he's quite content if this board becomes deserted.
You won't be hurting him, just us. But so be it...
I guess that's what the ignore buttons are for.
By the way, I own some Tekmira too.
Anzalone has a presentation tomorrow that will be webcast. And maybe they'll send out a PR tomorrow morning before his event stating that the first cohort has been dosed. One or both of those might make for a nice boost tomorrow. And if the announcement about the initial dosing doesn't occur tomorrow, then we can still look for it sometime in March.
Maybe he'll say tomorrow (if the PR hasn't come out by that time) if they'll announce the actual start of the trial so that we can know whether to look for that as a catalyst. That would be helpful. (In the webcast the week before the announcement about the go-ahead by the regulatory body, Anzalone listed the various catalysts coming up through the rest of the year, so hopefully he'll do that again.)
Besides... far from bothering investron, my guess would be that he relishes this stuff.
So these folks are going to a lot of effort to affect folks who don't have anything to do with what they are upset with investron for.
Can you imagine what will happen if PBT2 turns the corner and shows a significant change in memory (along with another significant showing in executive function) with this trial? It was almost there in the earlier trial...
I've read a little more from this person's other postings now. This poster is either a faker or a fool.
How in the world are you in this stock before results? Lots of folks are quite content waiting for results. If reward comes, it won't be as significant, but if the results are significantly positive - those in now, it is true, will get to be a part of any initial first major burst - but the positive consequences of significant results (in the eyes of those who are important to Prana's future support) will be playing out for days, weeks, months, years to come. The price now comes not in what one pays for shares to get in at this point, but in taking on pre-results risk, and the many testing of the nerves that are part and parcel of this period of time.
But being very risk adverse, to the extent that you clearly are, at this point before such crucial results... I don't get it... Maybe, however, you're just playing a part?
It's intriguing (to say the least) that that first PBT2 trial was right on the cusp of showing statistical significance for memory. (Interestingly, that was via the ADAS-Cog, which isn't particularly well suited for AD at the early stages. But I don't believe they are using the ADAS-Cog during this trial, although I could be mistaken about that.)
One big problem on these tests is the learning effect, something they definitely dealt with during the 12 week trial. But perhaps, by a year's time, for an AD patient, even in the very early stages, the learning effect will not be quite as substantial by the time of the final testing. (If so, that's another reason to be happy that placebo patients going into the extension portion of the trial will be taking PBT2.)
If no results the week of?
If we get past options expiry (and the pressure to push strike prices "out of the money"), and, say, we need to wait until Tuesday or Wednesday, or perhaps, even the following Monday, I could see the stock beginning to rise again before results (which, by that time, are sure to come within the 5 remaining trading days in March). I recall that the week after options expiry, both in January and February, the stock rose signficantly.
What's your thinking regarding what might happen that would bring the stock price lower AFTER options expiry? Would it just be about the craziness/nerves of what is sure to be the last day(s) before the announcement?
The only thing I would add to that is that I think that indicators that Prana will find real support (meaning very substantial funding, via a partnership and/or their own fundraising) to take PBT2, as well as their other pipeline products, significantly further (whether that means approval directly on the horizon, or some other interim set of steps, like much more significant testing within much longer, much more populated trials) would be particularly satisfying at this stage, and would prompt a major stock revaluation to the upside.
I wouldn't see this as zero interest. I would see this as waiting for results. I think the HD results, rightly or wrongly, set the stage for some hesitancy. There was such a blowback around those results.
I have a feeling a lot of folks will be looking for a halt on the stock, and then the chance to read the topline results before deciding about what to do.
I'm actually OK with what's happening now. If anything, a low bar has been set for the AD results. Any success (above and beyond what we saw with the HD results) is not yet reflected in the sp.
Also, the last announcement occurred the last week before options expiry, which naturally made for a headwind for the sp. That surely wasn't the only factor in the pushback after the HD announcement, but it was one factor.
For the HD results, the company guided that it was aiming for "early 2014," and the timing of the HD announcment allowed them to stay within their guidance, if you count the first half of the quarter as "early 2014," which many did.
Results due "in March" could be at anytime, and I sure feel for anybody with March calls in case the announcement is not made before options expiry. But if the results were to be announced after options expiry, rather than during the days before it, that at least would relieve the sp of those headwinds.
And no, I don't think PRANA will release results based on something like that (hence, releasing the HD results the week of options expiry... that clearly wasn't a calculated part of the HD announcement... and I don't think it will be with the AD announcement; I just personally would like to see the announcement after options expiry).
Further, I don't know if we'll see anything along the lines of a fund raising deal or a partnership deal to quickly follow the announcement of the AD results, but there's at least a chance for that, which there was no chance of happening following the HD results (while still awaiting the AD results).
I'm getting the distinct impression that we'll see $30 this week.
Great day today! Another strong day into the close.
You want to bet on that? I'll take that bet.
It was in the middle of Sept. that an announcement for a delay of the HD trial was made (originally scheduled for the following month). It's now March 10th. There will be no delay of the topline results of the Imagine trial.
It was nice to see Dirk retweeting the news. Even if Tekmira is his primary RNAi stock for now, he knows (and has written many times) that a lot of what is good for one company in the sector is good for others in the sector as well.
I would imagine the Fidelity filing will be making an impact (perhaps that's part of what's happening in the price action now).
I like to keep in touch with this one, simply because this is a forum most would find initially. But yes, the other one is more civil, ;-); glad to see more are starting to find their way there, even while keeping in touch with this one too.
Nice consolidation before the next catalyst - a little one, perhaps (if they announce the starting of the actual trial), but a catalyst, nonetheless... and with things in motion towards completion of the trial, news of the next target (both next quarter), then topline results (the quarter after that, 3rd quarter - the first company to report s-antigen knockdown in humans!), then the start of the next trial (2b), and filing for the new target (the quarter after that, 4th quarter), with the start of the trial for the new target in the quarter after that (first quarter of 2015), with new targets being presented during 2015 (while the ARC-520 2b trial plays out in the background over 2015).
Should be quite a year (and more) going forward...