Why wouldn't you short it, CJDBS. I fully understand the short side and FD, I am short, but just curious why you are not.
What are you thoughts on CECO? I have always focused on ESI for some reason, given the drastic price swings. Is CECO an equity donut eventually?
You can call Kino Oil. It was a sale of 3000 gallons about 2 months ago. You can also call the gas station directly. They have sold a little over half. Retail price is 4.49 a gallon. I am not in the long camp, just passing along the info.
The decline in enrollment number is the key. The negative operating leverage embedded in the business will not allow them to earn positive cash flow under 45k students. They are at about 47k now and forecasting -10% in the near future. I don't see any possible path towards reversing that trend at this stage. Economy is picking up, which means people are getting jobs, etc. Their only hope is a Republican winning the election and easing regulation, but I don't even know if they have that much time.
A judge ordered Calvets to lift its suspension yesterday, and Calvets updated its website this morning. Another regulatory issue resolved for ESI. Here is a cut and paste (you can read the rest at Calvets website).
On June 23, 2015, the Honorable Judge William Claster of the Orange County Superior Court issued an order staying CSAAVE’s suspension of approval of ITT’s courses for enrollment by veteran students.
ESI is currently on HCM Level 1, for payments to be delayed, the DoE would have to upgrade ESI to HCM Level 2. I don't see this happening at this stage, since they are in better shape than last year in terms of more up-to-date on their financials, etc. Additionally, the disaster with COCO has taught the DoE what delaying payments could cause. I am not saying that there is no reason they won't upgrade to HCM 2, but I think that would have already been done.
I actually think ESI has a good cause for the DoE to release the LOC and allow ESI to pay down its high-interest debt. The LOC is meant to ensure the DoE is paid in case of financial instability, but the LOC itself is a reason for greater financial instability, given the high interest cost of carrying the cash-secured LOC.
ESI will hit $10 in the near future for the following four reasons:
1. Renegotiate the Letter of Credit to release ESI from having to post this. This alone will save ESI roughly 9m in interest costs. The Letter of Credit was originally required because of ESI's inability to file its financials in a timely manner. Now that their financials are current (10-k deadline for Dept of Education is 6 months after fiscal year), the Dept of Ed will release ESI from this requirement.
2. ESI will pay off the Cerberus loan with the cash collateral from the release of the Dept of Ed LOC.
3. ESI will mortgage its real estate holdings to accelerate its repayment on Peaks and CUSO programs, which will substantially lower ESI's interest costs. ESI couldn't do this before because their financials were so late.
4. Accounting fees will drop dramatically now that ESI has finally accounted for the PEAKS and CUSO programs. After the initial accounting has been completed, it is really only a plug and chug from here on out, which is done at a much lower cost.
Additionally, legal fees will be lower as discovery periods have ended with the SEC, CPFB, and other agencies and have entered into the settlement stages. (Any settlement with the SEC will be more related to payments by the top two executives, not ESI itself).
5. ESI's variable cost structure will continue to allow it to maintain its profitability even in the face of declining enrollment. Its average lease duration on its buildings is only 3 years and at least 4 buildings leases' expire in fiscal 2015.
Even though this stock is up dramatically over the past two trading days, it will continue to re-value itself to a more "going concern" value over the next days and possibility weeks. When ESI files its Q1 before June 15, this stock will rise another 20-30% on that day as that filing will bring ESI in full compliance with its regulatory filings.