now hold on..we have roughly 300 million of bonds that are junior to roughly 2.6 billion of bank debt..Seanoise may know the answer to this question..but i believe that the bank debt is not for sale, nor does it trade on the open market..the bonded debt, which is roughly 300 million does trade and that is for sale..the take away point is that because the bonded debt is junior to the bank debt, it in essence really holds the same priority on the totem pole as the equity...because if the company stumbles the bonds and the equity will get completely wiped out..(because of the utter enormity of bank debt-2.6 billion) .seanoise, please add or subtract to anything i said here..u know the co. far better than all of us..thanks
I have a sneaky suspicion based on the trading activity these last 12 months that those 5 million shorts may in large part be concentrated in a handful of peoples hands, rather than in many retail hands..In fact, most of the 5.4 million shares are probobally in just 1 person's hands..If u recall the short interest in Herbalife by Bill Ackman..Before Ackman came along there was almost no short interest. I think what we have here is a very very reckless gambler..a man who has placed ALL his chips on the table and has resigned to himself that this is a Once in a lifetime bet, a get rich quick scheme if u will..But in reality this is an extremely reckless bet that could result in the loss of millions of dollars for this chap..the flip side of the coin is also true..but that said, it is still nonetheless exceeding reckless..I predict that once we put together 2 decent quarters..this chap will cover just as fast as he shorted..Id say by December this chap could cause these shares to rise to 20 dollars and take his loss of the millions of dollars he has on the table now. I could be very wrong, but I predict that this chap whoever he is will eventually take a multople million dollar loss
if we get good to very good news in August...we could easily run to 20. why? the 700 thousand shares shorted saw heavy buying in the last 10 minutes...the only sellers are the shorts...if the only sellers turn out to be buyers...we may see a short rally of biblical proportions
Obviously, someone who is a major short player brought out the big guns..he essentially shorted 10% of the entire tradeable float in 10 minutes..and the stock moved only 20 cents..
my prediction was correct..350, 000 shares traded in the last 10 minutes, that was more than 1/2 of the total shares traded for today..and of course it was a major short player who was window dressing,,...
someone holding a major short position may drive it lower, or one of the 4 billionaires that are long may drive it much higher..but i think we will see major volume in the last 10 minutes of trading..on this the last day of the quarter..window dressing
your theory would make sense if the spike in option volume coincided with a weak share price that day..but on June 25, the shares were in the high 11's..trading up to 11.90..those circumstances are more indicative of some momentum player..I still think its window dressing by one of the 4 billionaires invested in this company.....We may see more of the same Monday very late trading and then it will taper off in the coming days.
There was very heavy volume in the last 5 minutes of trading..and then a quarter million shares traded in the after hours. .one block of 60,000 shares went off at 11.35 in after hours. a total of 221,000 shares traded after hours. My guess is the window dressing will continue the same pattern Monday in the late afternoon..One of these billionaires( J Kyle Bass, John Paulson, George Schultze or Prem Watsa) all of which have huge positions in DXM is partaking in window dressing...just a guess though
as they say, and based on the amount shorted, is certain that his trade is the right one. I personally think the bet he or they are taking is extremely reckless. Time will certainly tell if he is right..One thing is for sure..either the short trader or us longs will lose big time.
that there will still be close to 5 million. I predict roughly 4.8 million. If I am right, the short covering really hasnt even begun..and of course if I am correct this is very bad news for the shorts
in the mail? If you recall back in 2005 when both of us were following FWHT, a total collapse in the share price precipitated a class action suit...After almost 10 years, the case has finally settled. Can u believe 10 years has passed..I dont follow INUV anymore , and havent posted..I did very well off this stock and its progeny..anyway, did u get a notice in the mail??
The shorts have been making us sweat for the last 8-11 months now its are turn..We have them in check mate and they will have to cover at a much higher price in the next 3-6 months..dont let them get out easy...its their turn to suffer now
bond guy the good news for us..is when they file bk that will allow them to cancel all the leases they want, such that all the underperforming stores can be closed and then they will turn a small operating profit....they will never turn a regular profit..so the equity holders will be completely wiped out but i am confident that the bond holders will be paid if not par very close to par..
but just as a caveat to that last thought,,RSH could easily make an operational profit, if the bank creditors (a separate group from the bond holders, and senior to me) would allow them to get out from under these leases..but they wont as they are worried that the inventory in the to be closed stores would be sold to keep the business alive a wee bit longer..the only way around this debacle is to file BK..which the management wont b/c they want to drain every last dollar before they litearlly cant pay the light bill..they have acccess to bank debt for at least 11 more months..thats the run rate on their cash burn as indicated by the CEO in the very last conf call..so really to sum up, equity holders and bond holders have to bend over and grab the ankles fromn the bank creditors and the RSH managers, when the latter folks could easily stop the bleeding , but they wont..its akin to having a dr watch his patient bleed to death without even putting a tourniquet on her
so in essence, i see absolutely no scenario where the equity holders would even get 1 cent..i think its over for them
I bought at 60 cents and they are currently being bid out at 35 cents..It wouldnt be a problem if RSH could tread water or make a small profit if the debts were wiped away, as the debt holers would get the equity..the problem is that even if the debts were canceled, RSH would still be losing money on an operational basis..
we are now in a full blown panic driven short rally
Bass never shorted DXM..He held several million shares and made some comments about how good DXM's prospects were last May 2013..when he made the comments the stock was about 10..and after he made the comments the shares ran to 22..he then proceeded to sell about 1/2 his position...
in nature as in life, there is no such thing as a free lunch..but the fed thinks it can fool mother nature...House prices in California are now back to , and actually exceed in many parts of the state, price levels from 2008...i see ilegal aliens who are qualifying for 400 thousabd dollar loans..their payment to cover the principal and interest payment is 2,000 a month, which doesnt include ins and taxes.If janet hiked the short rate just a half a point rates would reset all along the 30 year curve such that Mr Illegal alien's payment will now be 2500 a month ...obviously we have another housing bubble on the horizon..janet basically said even if we have higher inflation she will still be at 0...good luck wityh that Janet