This up move today from the low may be a classic dead cat bounce, as I've talked about earlier.
Well all I can say is my bad if this happens.
I'm at cash @ 28% from a high of 35% earlier today.
I hope most of you are at the 25% cash holdings I've been talking about for the past few months.
From the 87 and 2000 crash it has taken 6-8 years to get even.
I hope most of you can afford to hold out until this market turns around.
Good Luck and God bless.
Remember, it's not what we think it is worth. It's what the big boys are willing to pay.
Right now, everyone is a bit nervous.
If it moves up 50 cents by the end of day, that's great.
But don't count on it.
If your anxious to buy then good luck. It looks good with great volume.
I'm waiting until 15 minutes before closing to buy more or to sit tight.
If you have some play money to risk big time, look at LXRX. But you will need a strong stomach.
I think they could. Crossing my fingers.
It sure has been showing strength today. Unfortunately not a lot of volume just yet.
I raised more cash this morning selling some, not all, of my oil stocks.
We need to see a clear bottom with heavy volume upside in any stocks you may own before dipping your toes in.
Trying to time the bottom is a fools game with this downward slide
Yes RAD is holding it's own right now but I'm not buying more just yet.
It's so true that when a business, country or it's people are fearful then it only gets worse.
When a company and world leaders are fearful it builds upon itself. MORE FEAR for everyone.
Right now our local, state and federal governments are fearful of continuous downturns as well.
Our countries working and taxpaying citizens are worried if their jobs are in peril. Fearful of paying for their homes increases in medical care and insurance. Not saving enough for their children's education and for their retirement is also causing stress and fear.
The continuous increases in taxes, many hidden, are dropping every persons take home pay.
Crime around our country has increased and doesn't seem to abate.
Our cities leaders are fearful due to the increase in killings, robberies and assaults.
Our jails are overcrowded with petty thieves and kids that are picked up for doing drugs ( dealers should stay behind bars). While we are letting hard core criminals out of prison due to overcrowding.
Teens are registered as sex offenders for having consentual sex.
Very young children are harmed by no tolerance rules. Pointing a finger the wrong way, kissing a girl or boy or touching without permission.
Many of our police force, who are there to protect citizens, are spending more time policing these small things rather than protecting us from the real threats to people and property.
Our police force has been painted over with hatred due to a few bad apples.
Our own leaders have caused more distrust and hatred toward them with their words and deeds.
Why would a petty crime cause a man's death over selling some non taxed cigarettes on a corner?
Because of a law that causes the police to withhold the stupid law that's why.
Governments are always sticking their noses in their citizens lives.
If they want to eat, drink, smoke or take drugs so be it. In the MAJORITY of all these things they are only hurting themselves, no one else.
Fear is out there for all our countries citizens.
Just beware of a dead cat bounce. They can be traps for the best of us retail investors. It happens more times than not after this past market moves to the downside.
The major ETF's with their computer trading systems have complete control of this market.
Thinking we're at a bottom and jumping in too soon can be a bad decision.
We need major upside volume. If the volume is like it has been for the past month or two it could be a trap.
I'm glad someone took my advice. Congratulations.
My advice to you now is don't jump in too soon. Yes you may see what we call a dead cat's bounce next week and now you have the 25% cash that should be held for the some time. Don't end up being a dead cat.
If you are holding Good Stocks in your portfolio, then by not going to 50% was probably a good thing.
Before I will use my 25% I'll be sitting tight knowing I have cash for certain buying opportunities in the future. But not now. I'm concerned with the world economy and the world's political climate. It's just adding to more economic turmoil.
Remember, September and October can be brutal for the market as well.
So for me and hopefully you as well, we won't let that cash burn a hole in our pocket.
Yes your right. Everyone is scared with this downdraft. Notice I didn't say crash. I see this as an orderly reflection of who is willing to step up to the table and buy something that is under valued. What stock that is, is anyones guess.
For the majority of stock holders and investors for the past 8-10 years, they have not experienced a crash or correction. Everything has been up.
So this is very disappointing to say the least.
The winners in all this will be those who have invested in quality stocks and hang on. Should I say for dear life?
Do you have a long term hold strategy? If you do that's great. You'll need it.
Remember one thing. As a retail investor you are at a disadvantage. The big boys have always had an inside track to negative and positive news. You will read about it hours after they have the inside information.
For me I believe in two things due to this disadvantage. Follow the money and watch for those stocks that are up in down days or have been thrown out with the bath water for no apparent reason.
That means that in big down days there are good stocks with good earnings, dividends and forward guidance that are thrown out with others but shouldn't be.
I hope that makes sense.
It should because they are the big turnaround stocks that will be big winners in the future.
Maybe not next week, month or year but they will be the winners long term.
Good luck and keep 25% of your portfolio in cash.
So far this past week no one is immune from a market selloff. No one. It's what someone is willing to pay. And for now, like all sell offs, no big hands are willing to commit cash thinking the market is going lower and want's to keep cash on the sidelines. I don't blame them and I've done the same this week. 30% cash at this time hoping that this is a correction and not a full blown market crash coming along with the recent downturn. Which is heartbreaking for many of us investors.
Don't try to catch a falling knife as they say. Don't try to time a bottom, wait for this correction or crash to catch it's breath. If you get in after the market corrects to the upside 20%, so be it. It's better than losing another 20-50 % thinking you timed it right.
Going all in on Monday could be great with RAD. And then again it could be another major selloff along with RAD.
Wait, wait and wait.
This market is controlled by exchange trading funds. You are at their mercy. Until they commit there is no way to know how low this market can go. For the past week they have been bailing out and raising tons of cash.
They know more than we do.
If you have your portfolio at 25% cash, you can hold on without panic.
Next week will be an eye opener. Either we go down lower or start a correction to the upside.
I do think RAD will correct to the upside. Since I had more than 25% in my portfolio I bought more today but I may be regretting it next week.
Overall this is a slow slope to a bottom. I've been in the 87 crash and the return back to even took 8 years.
But 87 was an immediate crash and not a slow spiral to lower levels like recently.
Bottom line is I hope all the people on this board have been keeping their head above water as best as can be expected during this tough time.
For one, I would hold my 25% cash. Which by the way has increased over 25% if you hold a great deal of stocks besides RAD. Wait it out before putting some of that cash back to work. Watch for premium stocks that defy the downturns and give decent dividends and has announced stock buy backs.
Today I bought some PG as well as more RAD. I based my RAD purchase on It's upward movement early this morning while the market was down 200. I paid 15 cents more than where it settled but satisfied with the purchase non the less. Didn't expect the market to plunge 350+ at the close.
Yes I admit I'm down for the year on my total portfolio. But my cash position is now 30% of my total portfolio.
I'll bide my time for now before putting my cash to work other than what I previously stated.
As most of you know I'm a long term holder of RAD.
P.S. for those of you who were 100% in stocks, I feel for you.
I do hope things turn around so everyone can be happy with their holdings.
I hope you did as well. Good opportunities will come. It takes time and patience.
The making of big up and down moves is standard procedure.
Someday it may be profitable. But for now you need to grin and bare it.
Higher powers have control over LXRX.
They can destroy it or make it go much higher.
As always, as a retail investor in any stocks, you are at a big disadvantage.
RAD's respect in the market place.
That alone protects RAD from the past large moves in the market place. I'm not talking about the small loses recently due to market corrections, I'm talking about those 15-20% drops in a day or two due to some large short talking the stock down.
RAD continues to do things right and I won't go into details. I'll let the other long term holders provide an updated list.
Once again I say that RAD is a long term hold for future large gains.
As always, I recommend keeping 25% of your portfolio in cash for special needs and investments.
I was able this week to jump in and purchase some stocks that were seriously oversold. with my 25% cash including RAD
while I also got back to 25% after the trades on stocks I felt were too weak and would fall further.
CASH is KING in this turbulent market.
Shorts have been caught with their pants down and their knee knees exposed. As my grandson calls it.
This is the short of all shorts that will cause a lot of pain for those shorts.
There may be a lot of margin calls in the morning.
Thank GOD I'm long and bought more in the AM.
You can call it what you may but I'm a believer in GOOGLE.
Now we wait to see what the action is tomorrow.
As I said above, it's not the earnings it's forward guidance.
It's not the financials I'm interested in, It's the forward guidance and the possibilities that discoveries over the past 20 years can produce great income in the future when they are approved.
In the past management always made predictions time and time again about approvals.
As a long time stock holder in LXRX I would like to have information that is not fluffed for the media and financial organizations.
Are they 6 months away, a year away or three years away for the next approval drug by the FDA?
Just give us the truth. That's all I want.
If they need to dilute the shares for a good reason, I'm ok with that.
I've been through that before.
But in the past it amounted to nothing, just more shares and bonuses to the elite few management people, making them rich.while laying off 50% of the work force.
Yes I feel a little upset overall with LXRX, but I have good reason as a long term stockholder.
Been burnt too many times in the past by previous management's promises.
So, the bottom line is, can I trust the new team?
I hope we can for the sake of all long term stock holders.
Keeping my fingers crossed. Tomorrow could be a great day or a terrible disappointment.