depends on the offier.
if it is a cash offer, a mix of cash and shire shares, or just shire shares - assuming shire makes an offer
but lets say there is an offer (all cash) at $40 ... the stock may trade slightly higher if there is anticipation of another bid (or it may trade below the offer and slowly move up towards it as the takeover date approaches).
Really tough to anticipate at this point, stay tuned.
put your $$$ where your mouth is, and short it, else get lost, you add 0 value
NPSP is almost 100% owned by Tutes and insiders .... will be interesting to see how this unfolds
Shire PLC (ADR) (NASDAQ:SHPG) (LON:SHP) is beginning to become big in the rare diseases segment. The company’s $4.2 billion purchase of U.S. drug maker Viropharma last year and its $260 million bolt-on purchase of Lumena Pharmaceuticals have both helped in this respect.
Merger and acquisition frenzy
The pharmaceutical industry has rapidly been consolidating recently. Dealogic data shows a nearly 50% year over year increase in healthcare deals this year, amounting to around $163 billion. That amount is also more than triple the amount of deals that happened in 2012.
Meanwhile Shire PLC (ADR) (NASDAQ:SHPG) (LON:SHP) itself continues to be an attractive acquisition target as well mainly because of its fous on rare diseases and also neuroscience. The company also has a location in the tax haven of Ireland, which would be attractive to U.S. drug makers interested in tax benefits. This was a factor in Valeant Pharmaceuticals Intl Inc (NYSE:VRX)’s proposal to acquire Allergan, Inc. (NYSE:AGN) and other recent deals.
biopharm - are you short ? if not, why are you investing so much in this discussion ?
Natpara run up has started, and coupled with all the buyout noise you might get nervous (which happens) and sell - but if you need to take profits dont sell all your shares, because you will be leaving money on the table. sell maybe 25-33% max and enjoy the ride.
Hey Soflaturtle, an investor in Pharmasset could have bought GILD on the back of the takeover and reaped the growth ?
just saying ....
you could do the same if NPSP is taken over by another listed company as well.
3 of the companies I owned major chunks of shares were taken over in the last 8 months - SNTS (by SLXP), TSRX (by CBST), and CADX (by MNK), in each I could have bought the acquirer shares. in this case, could do the same with Shire (assuming they are the acquirer).. I don't disagree that investors lose the growth of what they own, but they achieve a major premium on the value of their shares of the company being acquired.
NPSP has scheduled ADCOM end of July, and I think it would be crazy for the Shire BOD to approve a buyout offer for NPSP until at least this milestone has passed. Why take that risk considering how important Natpara is to NPSP ?
However, all bets would be off following a successful ADCOM - so is SHIRE posturing right now, waiting to see who else is interested ? I have no problem waiting, my sense is that all the I's are dotted and the T's are crossed - patience, my fellow longs.
go 50/50. lots of out of the money June call buying on BMRN over last couple of days, over 3,000 contracts in the 65 and 70 strikes.
I just picked up a few for 'just in case'.
Nader gave a solid presentation on current pipeline, also mentioned NPS is looking to build their pipeline thru acquisition.
He deftly dodged a question on Q2 guidance, but did mention that they added 10 reps plus the new sales director from Viropharm and this was going to add benefits long term.
Nader did not comment on specific questions related to Q2, but said he was confident NPS would meet guidance. Did say that converting the prescription to having the patient take Gattex to staying on the program is challenging. Remember that Gattex is considered in the top 10 launches in the US, so this team knows how to launch a product (see Natpara).
Nader discussed Europe pricing for the Gattex product (different tradename in Europe), said it must be based on value proposition for each country. Local specialists were engaged for building the case.
Natpara – ADCOM panel was pushed back by 6 weeks, initiated by FDA, and this is reasonably typical. Of course, PDOUFA date unchanged which is key. There is always a risk going thru a panel but it should be noted that the study was robust, unambiguous, and data highly significant, safety profile excellent, one of largest safety databases for any orphan drug (Note Product was initially targeted for osteoporosis, 60,000 patient years of data.). Triple primary endpoint – and it hit on all thresholds.
Big physician education process once Natpara is approved – 4700 Endocrinologists will be targeted and also educating patients (small patient population)
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I had heard that comment from the GS analyst and chuckled when Nader said 'next question'.
$51 if taken out within next 3 months, else much higher post positive ADCOM.
Best of Luck !
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I was thinking along the same lines when the question was posed ... Nader was very stoic on the call, did not alter the company line: along the lines of 'NPS are confident they will make their adjusted numbers'. I think a lot of people were keying on that question and his response, not just you and me. we are 3 weeks from end of Q2, so hopefully they are either conservative or on track.
best of luck to you !
Sentiment: Strong Buy