I forget, when do they typically release their monthly metrics...particular day at the beginning of month? During market hours? I'll go look it up, thx for any informed feedback.
You've been dead right on the web 2.0 debacle. Major congrats. What do you see happening from here?
chart is very weak, but w/ beating markets have taken lately, I'd not be surprised for a negative reaction to the ER tonight. Last quarter was good, which has expectations very high. Lots of distribution has taken place.
I've been watching this for years and was long for a good bit from the 50's. Growth is slowing now and they do not pay a dividend. The chart has put in a massive distribution head and shoulders top over the past six months. I shorted on mon and believe it's headed to the low 90's. Great co and great management; saturated markets and slowing growth.
At about 28x sales and no earnings, this co will have a very tough time hanging on to the 60's (let alone the 70's) when it reports in a couple of weeks imo. There is no way in my view the market can give this a pass. Maybe maybe it is worth 4-6 sales, and that is still a significant premium. Even at 14x sales, it would be half of its current value. Chart appears set up for a further slide into low 60's over coming days.
I'm just making a comparison to how I think the two will trade pre-earnings. I was shorting FOSL before earnings, but it was really frustrating b/c it was not moving lower. it was still overpriced though, like this one. then....boom! down 11% in a day. I think this will drop a lot more than 11% from here over the next couple of weeks though.
GL and be careful.
I agree with all your points and am also short. In my experience it takes the ER to bring sobriety to bloated valuation situations such as this one; I'm waiting for that an probably will remain short thereafter depending.
You have been spot on w/ your calls. congrats. Have you looked at WDAY? I'm short that...it's your kind of short imo. 13b valuation, neg earnings for next 2+ yrs, no div of course. has had huge run...
Though I am not counting on it, I think it's possible that the ER day later this month could witness and epic drop in the share price for this, such as 20+ points in a day.
I think it will be this summer. I love a bbq. Seriously, at $35, that's still a ridiculous 14x sales. This could go to $10.
I fault myself for not being more nimble w/ this, but agree the trading in it makes little sense. It definitely should have stayed down on a day like this imo; i'm short from a lower level than you and have to therefore manage even more carefully. I closed my short today and actually went long, closed w/ no position. It's options expiration week and I fault myself for pressing the short too much here. greedy and dumb of me.
It is likely algo trading. I don't think I'm going to try to hold a short position in this between now and ER but may try to short it opportunistically between now and ER. GL
welcome to the community of mystified shortsellers. The co's future must be anointed from on high to hold this valuation (a la TSLA); they must be perceived as a sure thing to eat the lunch of SAP/Oracle at this price.
would you share your knwoledge of what the long thesis is here? I seriously would like to know why people would believe it would be worth even more than 28x sales w/ no earnings for 2+ yrs in this market.
i think it's a lot about options right now. Really tough to hold a big short right now, but i think bottom falls out w/in 7 trading days now. I wouldn't be surprised to see it run a few points up before imploding, though.
The needle is nearing the balloon.
I agree, but in this market it could hit the 80's before earnings. I think I'll short at 3:30 on ER day.
I was short FOSL last wk when they reported. Stock did same thing this is doing; hung on to minor chart support AH. The next day it dropped another $6 and then about $2 more the following day. I down this holds here.
For those of you who missed it, you may wish to google the Marc Andreesen interview on CNBC yesterday afternoon. He said he's not worried at all about his TWTR holding and that he's in for ten yrs. That kind of endorsement from a heavy is what the market needed to make a sentimental bottom.