Pls excuse another neophite question (and thank you for your response to my last one), but why would this take six months plus?
Kennedy, thank you for your input. Pls excuse the neophite question, but do you think they can outsource manufacturing to another entity (one w/ proven processes) in order to move things ahead from here at a better clip?
yeah thru "it". LOL. Like inventory restating SLXP 4 mo's ago, then bt out 100% higher. I've been through "it", too.
I agree w/ you and gilman above. About $1.5B in mkt cap shed in a few hrs over what will likely amount to a 3-4 month delay, if not less. Sheesh. Look at the SLXP and PCYC buyout activity....there are many potential acquirers of co's that have good product, and ACAD is one of them. My guess is this will be trading 60's - 80's by end of yr on its own and will be able to sell itself higher than that in '16. I thought i had missed boat on this one but am glad to be new owner at this price.
...that went down fro 130's to 80's in one AH session due to inventory issues. I bt that dip, wish i would have held all the way up....returned 100%+ in about 6 months. I bt this dip too. will sit on it; when smoke clears this will be bumping up higher imo.
Well, as a total guess, I'd say pop at least to 9-12 range and then trading upward from there after consolidating in that range for a month or so. With this much short interest, though, it could get taken for a run to the teens and maybe to twenty+ this yr. I don't see the data as insignificant and believe the market is going to start pricing in potentially very good financial benefits to OREX if further data corroborates.
I think today's action was a solid indication of where this stock is headed...up 2%+ in a bloody market. 40%+ short interest, positive (EU) news cycles likely coming...i think we're in for a good ride here in coming wks if mkt can hold together. I love high short interest stocks when the story changes for the better...made a killing in GMCR in 2012-13 in similar scenario. I bt in 6's and was gonna trade it, but I'm thinking hold/add. GL.
I agree with almost all of your points, but why do you think it would take til end of Q2 for EU decision? It seems that decision would be this month and the stock should be moving up more quickly than what you state in your view. I think we'll be 9++ w/in ten days or less.
Takeda is mercurial in my experience as an investor (they were a partner w/ another co that I was looking into last yr). Bit of a wildcard there, but I think their culture is such that they'll let everything play out w/o adding extra drama.
If more funding is perceived as needed, Iogic would seem to indicate that they would allow positive EU decision to happen and the stock is trading double digits and then do it; it should be very minor to the stock.
Great question. I'm sure the almighty regulators believe they have to follow no rules regarding their own communications; just the peasants do.
Certainly don't buy in this $5-8 range like a bunch of insiders did over the past few months. They surely don't know anything. lolz.
With the completion of the offering of earlier this month, I estimate approx # of outstanding shares would be 29.65 million, making market cap approx $115,000,000 using AH price of 3.90. Could someone more experienced with this co confirm if I am calculating this correctly?
I had fib at 6.34 (50% of 4.98 - 7.70 move). it hit it exactly, bounced, and has held above it. looks good for more upside to me. Once this takes out $7, which I believe will happen in next few days, I believe we will have stable trading higher to the $9 range. Fundamentals look in place, and street is going to anticipate potential additional beats going forward....this should trade in a healthy manner from here imo. First time long this; bt today after some extensive work. thanks for your analysis btw.