...and their mobile offering. Not an especially strong competitor in my view, but P respectfully shed some price in front of next week's event. I admit, I did not see this event coming. P price will digest this and move higher imo. Spotify's presence is nothing new.
With a strong market backdrop now and really strong listener metrics released, I'm thinking we test 31-32 area next week. Capital should flow to the companies that are executing the best in this environment.
Monthly data looks solid to me, increasing on seemingly all main metrics. We may cross 30 again today as Herring provides details and outlook. I'm thinking we will move pretty smoothly through the 30's and into the 40's over the next year. Their increased ability to monetize along with these numbers bodes well in my view.
I suggest going back and listening to all the webcasts. This co has multiple dollars per share of earnings power and is headed far, far higher in my view.
I seriously doubt it is going to go down much at all right in front of the CFO presentation, which is happening tomorrow. Last time the CFO spoke, the stock moved up very strongly. In my view,this was partly due to the fact that he provided really important clarification on how so many of the P advertising customers now have P fully integrated into their procurement platforms; many fold more efficient from the paper-based system with which P sales people had to struggle for so long. I'm looking forward to see more clarifications on this and other matters, and believe we will be seeing significant hints of rev acceleration. In my view, P is in a far better position now to take revs and EPS to a whole higher level.
..for shorts. W/ 43% of float short, it seems to me that earnings and outlook would both need to be much worse than expected for this to go down any more. If not, scramble for limited shares should follow.
With nearly $4/share in earnings power, large cash flow generation, shrinking float (buyback), and expansion in to new markets coming, this is really cheap imo. Volatile as always however.
Remember, this is owned by instys; trades on algys set to maximize frustration of retail longs imo. gl
It frequently acts poorly in front of earnings. Good example was trading in front of may earnings; whole market was taking off and GMCR was lagging heavily.
It looks to me like the stock offering this week essentially gets many of the insiders out of their stock here at about the expiration of the 6-month lock up. They're likely fully hedged on the rest. $1.23b for a noodle restaurant? this looks really ripe for slide.
No doubt. There are likely many newbie shorts as part of the 43% short interest now. They have no idea how fast this stock can turn. This is going to be a short slaughterhouse next week. I really would not be at all surprised to see 73-75. The earnings power totally justifies it. The GMCR buyback program was likely in effect this past week or so; it makes sense for the co to have bought in some shares in the 60's, given the earnings power here; the co has plenty of cash, room in the authorization, and reason to support the share price in the 60's. Imo, the bottom is in and this story/share price will be working its way back from here to a new high well in advance of the new offerings actually rolling out next year.
..nervous weekend for shorts coming up. I can't believe the short interest has worked itself all the way up to 43% as of 10/15. That's an astounding % to me, and the highest I think I've seen it since I've been involved with this stock (1 yr). I went levered long at $58, so I have some room if this comes in. With a few days til the release this could be 68-ish by mon-tues, imo. GLTA.
Good insight. Thank you for sharing this. I think GMCR is setting up to test at least the high 60's over next few trading days regardless. The whack down into the 50's on news of questionable authenticity is typical of pre-earnings events in this stock in my experience; running it the other way now would be the m.o. of the instys, and the cash/earnings generating power of this co undeniably warrants higher valuations over med term. We'll see how short term plays out.
The secondary enables them to take profits to a much higher level than current projections and there are other dimensions of the biz model that will be unfolding; this is going to the 30s and then to 40s imo. Listen to the webcasts.
I would suggest listening to last week's Pacific Crest presentation about 40 times or so; it may then begin to become clear. The other webcasts on the company's site are also helpful to gain understanding imo.