Can't even bounce w/ sector (down another 5% vs up 2% IBB), below ipo price, trading like someone knows ph III trial data is not good.
They are projecting having $500 million the end of this yr (not $1b), and I have to assume that is premised on anemia drug going well. A phase III trial costs how much? And they still have to have cash cushion. This is why my thinking was/is that they might accept partner now for 3019; would give them upfront cash and less cash burn.
So you see them funding their own Phse III for 3019; would anticipate stock dilution for that, no?
I am not an expert w/ approval process, but I assume fast track is not an option here given that there is another compound on market for the condition. Thoughts on this appreciated.
With the continued strong efficacy of 3019, they should be in phase III by H2 this yr, and approved by '17. They should be able to extract a minimum of $500 million upfront as they partner, with a string of milestone payments behind that. As their cash position is ok, their splits on the out yrs should be better than for 3492. Given the size of the market that 3019 addresses, stock should move significantly higher during this time frame imo.
If I read the abstract correctly, and I believe I do, FG-3019 (to which they own/retain all economic rights) shows significantly inreased survivability for pancreatic cancer patients when it is combined w/ another leading pancreatic cancer therapy. This is the second recent significant data point for this compound, the first being Nov data that showed 100% efficacy of FG-3019 in a trial when it was not combined with another compound. This is likely a billion dollar drug for FGEN in my view.
Don't forget about a 25+ year history of Barrons hit pieces on beaten down names right in front of significant events (such as co's presentation at invitation only JPM health care conf next week), followed by large sp increases afterwards. Parlez vous "available for hire"?
Should be a good additional peak at efficacy of 3019. Stock tested 30 and 50 here the past couple of days; I would think it would be strong into ASCO. 2016 should be a strong year for this co and sp.