Recent

% | $
Quotes you view appear here for quick access.

Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated Message Board

lcasmnis 119 posts  |  Last Activity: Apr 9, 2012 4:02 PM Member since: May 16, 2002
SortNewest  |  Oldest  |  Highest Rated Expand all messages
  • lcasmnis by lcasmnis Apr 9, 2012 4:02 PM Flag

    Citigroup - Equity Research 9 April 2012
    ****************************
    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) Buy (1)

    Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Tracking Weak at $387M Without Destocking and
    ~$372M With Potential Destocking
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Kumaraguru Raja, Ph.D

    Gloria Woo, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * Incivek + Victrelis Rx Trends - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,782 and
    901, wk/wk TRx decrease of 1.1% and NRx increase of 3.8%, respectively.
    MRK's Victrelis TRx and NRX are 1,105 and 414, wk/wk TRx and NRx increase
    of 11.3% and 11.0%, respectively.

    * Incivek Sales Tracker - There have been 22,565 TRx for Incivek in Q1. We
    assume that each TRx for Incivek is written for 1 month. Vertex's Incivek
    sales for Q1:12 using the average price/scrip in 4Q:11 of $17,163
    ($4,291/wk) is tracking at $387.3M without destocking.

    * Inventory Stocking/Destocking - We are assuming that there is no further
    inventory stocking by now. But if there is destocking, then sales would
    be even weaker. We would imagine that the wholesalers might destock
    gradually and that could be an additional $5M/wk reduction to sales. So
    assuming 3 wks of inventory, any destocking could reduce sales further to
    $372M.

    * Citi vs. Consensus Estimates - Citi's estimate for Q1:12 Incivek sales
    are $404M. Vertex's calculates that the consensus sales for Q1:12 are
    $416M as of 03-26-2012.

    * Roche's Pegasys - Pegasys weekly TRx incr 1.9% and NRx decr 0.6%.

    * Merck's PEG-Intron - PEG-Intron weekly TRx and NRx decr 6.1% and 7.1%.

    * Ribavirin - Ribavirin weekly TRx incr 7.3% and NRx decr 5.0%.

  • Reply to

    Victrelis $87M in Q4

    by jrus2010 Feb 2, 2012 8:38 AM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Apr 2, 2012 4:34 PM Flag

    Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Tracking Weak at $412M-$425M
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Kumaraguru Raja, Ph.D

    Gloria Woo, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * Incivek + Victrelis Rx Trends - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,802 and
    868, wk/wk TRx increase of 1.2% and NRx decrease of 0.8%, respectively.
    MRK's Victrelis TRx and NRX are 993 and 373, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease
    of 1.2% and 13.1%, respectively.

    * Incivek Sales Tracker - There have been 20,783 TRx for Incivek in Q1. We
    assume that each TRx for Incivek is written for 1 month.

    * Price Adjustments - We estimate sales of Vertex's Incivek for Q1:12
    using two prices. 1. The average price/scrip in October without inventory
    of $18,259 ($4,565/wk). 2. The average price/script with inventory in
    October of $18,793 ($4,698/wk). If we use the $18,259, sales are tracking
    at $412M. If we use $18,793, sales are tracking at $425M.

    * Citi vs. Consensus Estimates - Citi's estimate for Q1:12 Incivek sales
    are $404M. Vertex's calculates that the consensus sales for Q1:12 are
    $416M as of 03-26-2012.

  • Reply to

    Premarket?

    by crossroads4040 Mar 19, 2012 9:01 AM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Mar 19, 2012 9:39 AM Flag

    lower absolute number of scripts for Incivek

  • Reply to

    Next Catalyst?

    by dailydubya Mar 12, 2012 11:03 AM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Mar 14, 2012 9:38 AM Flag

    Sorry, but Citi Research, which reported the weekly scripts regularly, has not done so in two months. The subscribers to the service of course know what they are.

  • Reply to

    Next Catalyst?

    by dailydubya Mar 12, 2012 11:03 AM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Mar 13, 2012 11:09 AM Flag

    A drop in prescriptions due to side effects?

  • lcasmnis lcasmnis Feb 18, 2012 7:54 AM Flag

    In the last analysis (assuming FDA approval) it is the prescribing physicians and treated patients not the financial analysts who will decide, as is now the case with Incivek v. Vitrelis.

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 4th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Jan 9, 2012 9:43 AM Flag

    Incivek + Victrelis Rx Trends - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,561 and
    701, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of -7.5% and -8.5%, respectively. MRK's
    Victrelis TRx and NRX are 914 and 352, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of
    -2.0% and -10.2%, respectively.

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 4th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Jan 3, 2012 8:04 AM Flag

    from Citibank research

    * Incivek + Victrelis Rx Trends - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,688 and
    766, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of -6.3% and -16.5%, respectively. MRK's
    Victrelis TRx and NRX are 933 and 392, wk/wk TRx and NRx increase of
    +3.3% and +6.8%, respectively.

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 4th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Dec 27, 2011 4:10 PM Flag

    From Citibank
    * Incivek + Victrelis Rx Trends - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,802 and
    917, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of -8.3% and -1.6%, respectively. MRK's
    Victrelis TRx and NRX are 903 and 367, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of
    -7.9% and -11.1%, respectively.

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 4th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Dec 21, 2011 10:15 AM Flag

    From Citibank:

    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,966 and 932, wk/wk
    TRx and NRx decrease of -16.0% and -16.4%, respectively. MRK's Victrelis
    TRx and NRX are 980 and 413, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of -4.1% and
    -11.2%, respectively

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 4th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Dec 13, 2011 10:30 AM Flag

    t is for total, n is for new

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 4th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Dec 12, 2011 3:19 PM Flag

    Citigroup - Equity Research 12 December 2011
    Biotechnology (Citi)



    Tracking Weekly Prescription Trends - Week Ended 12/02/2011
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Kumaraguru Raja, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 2,341 and 1,115,
    weekly TRX and NRx incr of 44.0% and 49.9%. MRK's Victrelis TRx and NRX
    are 1,022 and 465, weekly TRx and NRx incr of 57.0% and 53.0%. Please
    note that there was a holiday due to Thanksgiving during the week of Nov
    25th, which could have led to increased scrips this week.

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 4th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 15, 2011 5:00 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Dec 5, 2011 11:39 AM Flag

    Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Has the Lead - Sales Tracking at $508M-$573M
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Kumaraguru Raja, Ph.D

    Gloria Woo, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,626 and 744, wk/wk
    TRx and NRx decrease of -26.3% and -31.4%, respectively. MRK's Victrelis
    TRx and NRX are 651 and 304, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of -24.5% and
    -28.5%, respectively. The market share based on weekly TRx is: Incivek
    71.4% and Victrelis 28.6%.

  • Reply to

    Incivek Prescriptions - Nov 11th update

    by agnostinvesting Nov 21, 2011 11:00 AM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Nov 28, 2011 5:08 PM Flag

    Citigroup - Equity Research 28 November 2011

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) Buy (1)

    Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Has the Lead - Sales Tracking at $538M-$607M
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Kumaraguru Raja, Ph.D

    Gloria Woo, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 2,206 and 1,084, wk/wk
    TRx and NRx decrease of -1.7% and -6.5%, respectively. MRK's Victrelis
    TRx and NRX are 862 and 425, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of -3.7% and
    -4.7%, respectively. The market share based on weekly TRx is1 Incivek
    71.9% and Victrelis 28.1%.

  • Reply to

    Pre-Market

    by germany72 Oct 28, 2011 8:22 AM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Oct 28, 2011 9:33 AM Flag

    Morgan Stanley's David Friedman, MD, has filed early this a.m. with an analysis reiterating his minority-of-one target of $32, so this may have some initial influence with the large institutions that dominate the market for this stock.

    He has not yet revisited his faulty capacity analysis of last May. (He asserted on the basis of a 100-physician poll, including 9 hepatologists, that the prescribing physicians would not be able to handle the capacity that has now occurred.) His long-term scenario is that Vertex's bird in the hand in Hep C will be worth less than the many birds in the bush (Pharmasset, JNJ etc) for which he projects accelerated FDA approval. And he continues to attach zero valuation to the worth of the Vertex scientific team, which others see as a continuing font of new drugs.

    His cost estimate for this quarter were within a 10% accuracy range, but his earnings estimate was 84% under the actual. His base $32/share model should be put in the context of the overall range: he projects a $70/share bull scenario, and a $22 bear scenario.

  • Reply to

    market share report

    by lcasmnis Aug 8, 2011 3:26 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Oct 10, 2011 9:38 AM Flag

    Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Has the Lead - Sales Tracking at $309M-$386M
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Kumaraguru Raja, Ph.D

    Gloria Woo, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 2,192 and 1,235, wk/wk
    TRx and NRx decrease of -2.8% and -0.3%, respectively. MRK's Victrelis
    TRx and NRX are 727 and 419, wk/wk TRx and NRx increase of +11.5% and
    +8.5%, respectively. The market share based on weekly TRx is: Incivek
    75.1% and Victrelis 24.9%.

  • Reply to

    market share report

    by lcasmnis Aug 8, 2011 3:26 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Oct 3, 2011 10:21 AM Flag

    Citigroup - Equity Research 3 October 2011

    Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (VRTX) Buy/High Risk (1H)

    Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Has the Lead - Sales Tracking at $310M-$389M
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Kumaraguru Raja, Ph.D

    Gloria Woo, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 2,255 and 1,239, wk/wk
    TRx increase and NRx decrease of +2.1% and -2.5%, respectively. MRK's
    Victrelis TRx and NRX are 652 and 386, wk/wk TRx and NRx increase of 6.0%
    and 5.2%, respectively. The market share based on weekly TRx is: Incivek
    77.6% and Victrelis 22.4%.

  • Here is the analysis by Citibank Research of the recent VA decision in favor of Merck's drug. Note that though there is a breakdown by genotype, there is none by race. At the time FDA approved the Victrelis and Incivek, its panelist noted the complete absence of research by Merck into efficacy on African-Americans. Vertex had done some research, but it was preliminary. Anyway, here is the Citibank comment:

    VA Chooses Victrelis Over Incivek
    ****************************************************************************

    Yaron Werber, MD

    Gloria Woo, Ph.D
    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------


    * Victrelis is Preferred - The VA system has listed Victrelis as preferred
    over Incivek. This does not mean that patients cannot be prescribed
    Incivek but physicians will have to go through a lengthy approval process
    for each patient that is treated with Incivek which is likely to sway
    physician's treatment choice toward Victrelis. Victrelis was chosen over
    Incivek based on deep price discounts that Vertex did not feel would be
    in their best interest to match.

    * VA Patient Demographics - In 2010, 165,005 Veterans were under care for
    HCV of which 35,841 (22%) had received at least 1 course of HCV antiviral
    treatment. Our HCV market model estimates ~850K HCV patients have been
    identified in the US suggesting that patients in the VA make up ~19% of
    patients diagnosed in the US. The split between genotypes are 80%, 12%
    and 7% for genotypes 1, 2 and 3 in the VA system.

    * Eligible Patients - It is estimated that ~24K pts in the VA system would
    be eligible for therapy. Our market model estimates that there are ~383K
    genotype 1/4 pts in the US who are eligible for therapy suggesting that
    6% of eligible patients are from the VA system. The number of patients
    who are eligible for therapy is likely to increase due to shortened
    duration of interferon therapy.

    * HCV Market Shift - Currently Incivek has 78%-80% of the market. We
    estimate that if Victrelis captures the entire VA system, the Incivek's
    market share could go down as low as 71%-73%.

  • Reply to

    market share report

    by lcasmnis Aug 8, 2011 3:26 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Sep 26, 2011 9:25 AM Flag

    VRTX: Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Has the Lead - Sales Tracking at $308M-$412M

    From Citibank Research

    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 2,209 and 1,271, wk/wk TRx and NRx increase of 22.4% and 37.6%, respectively. MRK's Victrelis TRx and NRX are 615 and 367, wk/wk TRx and NRx increase of 24.2% and 27.4%, respectively. The market share based on weekly TRx is: Incivek 78.2% and Victrelis 21.8%.

  • Reply to

    market share report

    by lcasmnis Aug 8, 2011 3:26 PM
    lcasmnis lcasmnis Sep 19, 2011 9:56 AM Flag

    Wkly HCV Tracker - Incivek Has the Lead - Sales Tracking at $267M-$377M
    ************************************************From Citibank
    * HCV Market Share - VRTX's Incivek TRx and NRx are 1,805 and 925, wk/wk TRx and NRx decrease of -20.4% and -29.6%, respectively. Scripts were down 20% due to a holiday on September 5th. MRK's Victrelis TRx and NRX are 495 and 288, wk/wk TRx and NRx decreased -11.1% and -20.9%, respectively. The market share based on weekly TRx is: Incivek 78.5% and Victrelis 21.5%.

VRTX
126.99+0.46(+0.36%)Sep 4 4:00 PMEDT