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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

learner1001 19 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 19, 2014 10:50 AM Member since: Apr 21, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Trina needs to talk

    by zangnut Dec 18, 2014 1:21 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Dec 19, 2014 10:50 AM Flag

    It is funny to see SOL got pumped so much.
    SOL's problem is close to HSOL and YGE.
    SOL has Debt/Equity (mrq): 586.92, which is very high.

    SOL's problem comes from its polysilicon and wafer business.
    GCL is too big and strong. I feel SOL is quite unlucky which needs to compete against GCL. Smartly, SOL also gradually transform into module business. Anyway, debt is too high. Just a few manufacture factories locates overseas to avoid US tariff is not going to change much.

  • learner1001 by learner1001 Dec 19, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    Jaso's downstream project will contribute extra profit next year.
    Asian solar market is booming and China 2015 market will not shrink, Jaso is #1 in Asian solar module sell (in Japan also).
    Module efficiency is the highest among the Chinese solar company.

    By the way, Jaso just singned a 100MW DG project with Laiwu industrial city in Shandong a week ago (12/12/2014). The city locates in China's northeast coast line area. It definitely has no grid connection problem by providing solar energy to steel based high population industrial city.

    Q4/2014 China is going to installed more than 6GW.
    Direct instinct is Jaso will make good money in Q4/2014, and 2015 will be even better than 2014.

  • Reply to

    BARCLAYS DOWNGRADE...............

    by slicktop4 Dec 18, 2014 9:57 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Dec 18, 2014 3:53 PM Flag

    I interpret it as "bottom"'.
    PSEC pays too much div, NAV dropped some and it is rated as equal weight sounds fine with me.
    With .083 new div, I still get 12% with current PPS, while PSEC can begin increase NAV. So PSEC PPS should gradually begin to claw up. Good deal to own(buy) PSEC at this price, everything sound good.

  • Reply to

    Trina needs to talk

    by zangnut Dec 18, 2014 1:21 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Dec 18, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    It is manipulation game.
    Good company like JASO TSL and CSIQ are down, while junk company like YGE are up.
    As a TSL stock holder, we should ask TSL board to approve a buyback program.

  • Reply to

    newbees learning yet?

    by chtptomoon Dec 10, 2014 3:59 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Dec 11, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    Jaso's current COO & CFO was appointed since December 2013. From the conversation in CC, these two top management guys look to be quite conservative and competent. Under their leadership, Jaso is on the right track and make decent profits for 4 consecutive quarters.
    Talking split, JASO do a 1:3 split in year 2008. -- that good
    When US announced anti-Chinese Solar cell dumping, JASO got the biggest hit because JASO was a Solar Cell (biggest solar cell company in China). The previous management do a fine job ( not as good as current one I guess), Jaso was able to maintain very low debt and migrate into Module business. I can understand why Jaso need to do 5:1 reverse split because Jaso don't want to lose large institution client.

  • learner1001 learner1001 Dec 9, 2014 11:48 AM Flag

    correcting: "HSOL is losing money and struggling for survivor. "

  • learner1001 learner1001 Dec 9, 2014 11:39 AM Flag

    SOL is losing money and struggling for survivor.
    Jaso is on the rising.
    I question about "sold my JASO and bought HSOL".
    Jaso's module is one of the best in terms of efficiency and cost.

    Jaso;s highest end 60 cells product has reached 295W now and in mass production. (go to check their web site under product)
    I do not know any other Chinese Solar module has over 275W for 60 cells now. I guess Q CELL may have 280W only and probably cost higher.
    Selling Jaso???

  • Reply to

    News

    by cornergrinders Dec 8, 2014 9:23 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Dec 8, 2014 10:11 PM Flag

    Jaso normally keeps low profile for it's business activities.
    This 100MW is really a meaningful mark.

    This large-scale solar park was originally planned by the local government to build 700MW, late expanded to 1GW. Now Jaso got the first 100MW, Certainly hope Jaso will have continuation for the future sell again.

  • Reply to

    There is a Dividend for every month. - Sorry

    by sholley111 Dec 8, 2014 10:07 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Dec 8, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    PSEC web site is correct. From March on, the March 19 begin to receive 8.33 cents.
    The Dividends cut is a reasonable smart move. Now we can get about $1.00 per year.
    PSEC EPS is around $1.18. Paying 0.11 a month is over-stretched for long period of time. It may cause PSEC to do dangerous loan lending....

    With new rate, PSEC is quite healthy--- make 1.18 and pay 1.00. Dividends still above 11.5% with today's PPS around 8.5. What a good chance to buy!!!

  • Reply to

    Uncle and Snake... commentary?

    by zangnut Nov 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Nov 21, 2014 9:14 AM Flag

    JASO PPS has jumped a lot since this post Nov 13.
    Q3 CC announced 90 M buyback and updated P/E at 7.4. Downstream project profit will begin to come in next year. 60 Cell module output 280W.
    Lot of high efficiency cells at production lines now, it can make decent profit even without downstream projects. I like this conservative company with solid result and less news bragging...

  • Reply to

    Uncle and Snake... commentary?

    by zangnut Nov 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Nov 13, 2014 10:45 AM Flag

    SPWR 's gloomy outlook is understandable. SPWR's P/E is too high.
    Since China is the biggest Solar pie from now on, good and robust Chinese Solar companies should begin to shine.

  • Reply to

    Uncle and Snake... commentary?

    by zangnut Nov 12, 2014 10:21 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Nov 13, 2014 10:28 AM Flag

    CSIQ plans to add 500M module and 400M high efficiency cell. It shows solar market is good. FSLR adds solar module capacity for year 2015 too.

    Solar industry is in good shape.
    TSL and JASO should begin to shine.
    CSIQ has it's own "gross margin" normalized issues. I expect CSIQ's gross margin normalized to 15%-19% for 2015.

    From 2015 beyond, the profit for selling cell, module and downstream projects should be more evenly distributed. CSIQ's still the best Chinese&Canada based Solar company. It should has the EPS around $2.40-$3.00 for year 2015. PPS at $27 is a little bit oversold.

  • learner1001 learner1001 Nov 10, 2014 1:50 PM Flag

    Fslr has more near term issues besides yieldCo.
    . Solar downstream project is quite overheated now, Fslr's gross margin will shrink gradually.
    . Fslr 's CdTe based thin film performs much better in high temperature such as North Africa and Middle East, these area's solar market hasn't grown as big as Fslr expect.
    . TetraSun looks behind schedule. Asia now is the biggest solar pie, DG should be the main solar demand for these high population density area. Without TetraSun, Fslr has very little chance to break into Asia market.
    . With republican in control both Senate and Congress, can Fslr continue to get big subsidized lucrative solar project?

    Since the downstream projects are overheated(very competitive), I guess the project's gross margin should shrink. I would be very careful to put money into CSIQ and JKS since these companies claimed to make nice profit from downstream projects before.

  • learner1001 learner1001 Nov 3, 2014 2:17 PM Flag

    For Year 2014 and beyond, Asia's total (China , Japan and other Asian countries combined) Solar module demand are more than 50% of the whole world market. JASO probably is the #1 module supplier in Asia market. Just hold and wait ...

  • Reply to

    buy back point

    by vikingpaul73 Oct 3, 2014 12:52 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Oct 23, 2014 10:49 AM Flag

    Bad bloody competition result in losing money for silver company.
    AG increased production to cut the cost while Silver price dropped even deeper.

    Make no sense to buy silver company's stock share since losing money will weak the company's financial status.
    Buy SLV at this price and hold, it will make money eventually since some silver miners will bankrupt eventually and cause the silver price to return to normal price.

  • learner1001 learner1001 Oct 14, 2014 4:50 PM Flag

    I don't see JASO has any short term debt problem.
    If JASO want to bid big large downstream project, then JASO definitely needs more cashes.
    I think JASO's priority should be bringing down the module cost and prove that JASO is profitable even just selling it's high efficiency module, then JASO's PPS will be up.
    Then JASO will be at better position to raise more cashes and slowly grow into large downstream solar project back log later.

  • 3rd Qt CC is coming soon. P/E should below 10 at this price level. I choose to add more shares to bring down the average cost.

  • Reply to

    They CAN speak!

    by zangnut Oct 10, 2014 8:41 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Oct 10, 2014 10:23 AM Flag

    With recent cash injection, TSL has opened more opportunities to compete for large international profitable solar projects.

  • learner1001 learner1001 Oct 10, 2014 10:15 AM Flag

    Good idea to integrate Tigo's technology into JASO's smart module. TSL is also Tigo's customer.

    JASO's module is very marketable.

FSLR
43.67-0.39(-0.89%)Dec 24 1:00 PMEST

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