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First Solar, Inc. Message Board

learner1001 26 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Apr 21, 2008
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  • Reply to

    JASO To Going Private @10.80

    by ivannikolic35 Jul 28, 2015 7:51 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 23 hours ago Flag

    For 9.69 offer, quite a lot people would lose money or on the edge, it may be tough to get OK-ToGo approval vote. 10.80 definitely is good enough to get necessary support vote.

  • Reply to

    My first impulse was to jump in at $3.12

    by steeloilsilver Jul 27, 2015 2:05 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 28, 2015 11:51 AM Flag

    Silvercrest(SVLC) is a bad company to invest. It dilute the share counts averagely more than 10% for the last several years with only small profit. No wander it is traded around 65% of it's book value just before offer is announced.

    Why AG needs to give SVLC a 30% premium? It is bad for the AG share holder. The AG PPS plunges 14% Yesterday is a proof AG management made a selfish decision.

    Of course, SVLC BOD and share holder will happy to take the offer.
    Deal may not go through in AG side.

  • Reply to

    Silver price

    by stockpicks92 Jul 23, 2015 9:25 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 27, 2015 9:29 AM Flag

    You miss a key data to correlate stock PPS and Silver value.

    Last time when AG was $200, the AG's Equity value is less then 200 Millions.

    AG made tons of money during 2010 to 2013 period and has built strong Corp value.

    AG's Equity value now is over 500 Millions now. Open your eye and wake up, AG is a complete different company in terms of value and strength compared to 6 years ago.

  • Amazon make only 19 cents Q2/2015 and trades around $530

    I bet PSEC will make more 19 cents but trades only around $7.2
    Its about 75 times difference. WS is a big trap and dangerous.

    If a person uses 300k to buy PSEC now, then go for a long long vacation.
    Every year this guy will receive 40k dividends for his vacation allowance spending.
    Ten year later, he may find his original 300K also become 350K because I think naked shorter can't afford to pay so high interest (13.3%) for so long the time.

    If a person uses 300K to buy AMZN now.
    How much dividends this guy will accumulate after ten years? ---the answer is probably 0.
    What AMZN will become ten years later? -- No body know

  • Reply to

    AG and CDE are 1 to 1 @ $4

    by dumpplatinum Jul 20, 2015 12:21 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 23, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    End of Mar 31, 2015

    CDE Total Debt/Equity : 92.76 Bookvalue:5.36
    Earning power: worse, keep on losing money...
    trade around 4.08

    AG Total Debt/Equity : 14.14 Bookvalue:4.43
    trade around 3.66
    Earning power: better among silver miners
    ========================================
    On 6/23/2015, Coeur Announces Increase in Liquidity and Near-Term Free Cash Flow Through $100 Million Senior Secured Financing and Enhancements to Rochester’s Mine Plan.
    It implies the Debt increase a lot. More interests need to pay. Quite risky???

    On 4/22/2015, AG announces closing of issued an aggregate of 4,620,000 common shares (the "Common Shares") at a price of C$6.50 per Common Share for gross proceeds of C$30,030,000 (the "Offering)

  • Reply to

    US holds firm on China PV tariffs

    by renaldo1952 Jul 11, 2015 3:44 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 13, 2015 7:35 AM Flag

    FSLR just announced it's re-enter China Solar market a week ago.
    With no surprise, I would assume FSLR's CdTe module should able to reach around 17% aperture-area efficiency in second quarter 2016. It can compete against China's major Silicon based module quite well for China's hot sunny area.

    The PV tariffs against China may have negative impact against FSLR in the long run because of retaliation from China a few years later if FSLR begin able to win larger market shares-- China's solar market is much bigger than U.S. market.

    Some China Solar module companies already set some of it's manufacturing base in other countries to get around the PV tariffs. How effective is the PV tariffs ruling?

  • learner1001 learner1001 Jul 8, 2015 4:34 PM Flag

    My guess is:
    If land is not an issue, FSLR's cost should be just a little over 4 cents.
    After 30% of Federal tax credit is assumed, FSLR should able to make 20 - 25% gross margin.

  • learner1001 learner1001 Jul 8, 2015 11:08 AM Flag

    I have seen FSLR PPS jumped over 20% in a single day two times for the last two years.
    FSLR PPS around $44 is extremely good entry points.
    An typical utility company normally trade PPS at around 1.5 times of it's book value, with Debt/Equity ratio around :125%

    FSLR will dominate Solar large scale utility with it's leading thin film tech. Plus it's Debt/Equity ratio is only at:5%.
    I am waiting for a huge jump to come. ...

  • Reply to

    SUNE Up Today, Safe Solar To Own

    by jabaileyjr Jul 7, 2015 11:06 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 7, 2015 4:05 PM Flag

    "knowledgeable investors continue to buy SUNE and avoid JASO.".
    That is a big joke.
    I view SUNE is a big trap and JASO is an opportunity to get in at this low price.

  • Reply to

    SUNE Up Today, Safe Solar To Own

    by jabaileyjr Jul 7, 2015 11:06 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 7, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    SUNE Total Debt/Equity : 619.20 --very high
    Q2/2015 report is coming soon.
    JASO making money or SUNE?

    SUNE needs to make profit, otherwise it eventually will go BK no matter how pumper pump it.

  • Reply to

    $9.69 offer looks mighty nice now......

    by pvsolartech Jul 6, 2015 4:47 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 6, 2015 7:43 PM Flag

    Jaso's product line looks quite good to me.
    I agree with you that $9.69 is low ball..
    Product:
    1) Its standard modules successfully passed the Class A fire test in accordance with UL1703 standard for Type 1 modules. Making JA Solar the first company mass producing PV modules in China to pass the test.
    2) Its PV modules have passed the high-grade Class 4 Hail Test

    JACM6PA-4 Mono solar cell (PERCIUM) --Manufacturing modules with more than 285Wp(6x10) and 340Wp(6x12) power output in mass production.
    ---lot of strong products
    ------
    CEO is a Chinese National Congressman. He has spoken a lot of solar policies in Chinese Solar industry.
    $9.69 a good deal? Q2/2015 reports is not far away...

  • Reply to

    CEO should reaffirm his offer.

    by dsong76771 Jul 6, 2015 10:53 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 6, 2015 11:10 AM Flag

    Jaso CEO is a Chinese national congressman with reputation. I saw a lots of picture that this CEO chat and laughing with Chinese Prime minister. He is quite high profile in Solar industry in China

    If a person loses confidence in him. Who is to blame?

  • Reply to

    What happens to your shares if there is a buyout

    by vinpark Jul 5, 2015 10:25 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 5, 2015 8:10 PM Flag

    Your shares just become cashes.
    For example, if you have 1000 Jaso shares in your account.

    If the $9.69 is the final approved price and got legally processed (I mean follows the Sec regulations) . Then you will find $9690 cashes in your account and the 1000 Jaso shares got erased, nothing you can do about it. Just like you received one time only Dividends.

    If there is a law suit case, it will be quite long time later and that is basically lawyer's profit.-- I would forget about it as a small investor.

  • Reply to

    2015 Intersolar Europe

    by gzhou_99 Jun 30, 2015 8:17 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 3, 2015 10:45 AM Flag

    Nice marketing which can expanding the international market.
    Jaso is on the right track to
    . balance and stabilize the revenue. Jaso is too much depend on Asian market before.
    . Increase the GM. China's solar market is huge but the GM is low.

  • Reply to

    what is wrong with FSLR?????????????

    by msghohoho Jun 30, 2015 7:39 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jul 1, 2015 12:49 PM Flag

    Nothing is wrong. It is an opportunity to get big profits.
    Buy at this huge discount (below $46 PPS), then take a summer vacation.

    Then come back to check PPS at the end of this year, I will not surprised that if there is big profits in the FSLR shares account

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    If the price keeps under $9,

    by guwaz2000 Jun 26, 2015 10:25 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jun 27, 2015 10:18 AM Flag

    The buyout process will take a while. Q2/2015 result is the key.
    If Q2/2015 beats the WS expectation and guide well for the whole 2015. $9.69 will be too low and the deal can be off or the CEO needs to offer more.

    If Q2/2015 do not beat WS expectation ( 8 cents profit, 397M revenue), then $9.69 probably is the choice share holders have to take.

    The current CEO took control Jaso at Jan/2013. Jaso began the transformation from cell based company into well balanced enterprise Today. It begin to make profits since Q4/2013. From the trend, Jaso should continue to do well. It guides 3.6 to 4GW for 2015 and is expanding capacity and downstream projects.
    I am optimistic about Q2/2015. Just wait and see. Anyway, I should be able to get $9.69/share.

    I am a little disappointed about Jaso's does not carry out the buy back program. But feel better that CEO is willing to offer $9.69/share for buyout. Jaso probably needs lots of money in the downstream projects, but I still think Jaso should be able to carry out a small scale buyback.

    On the other hand, these management is not greedy at all. 2014 is the year that Jaso began to make big profits. From 2014 Jaso annual report page 87:
    --------------------- Compensation of Directors and Executive Officers-----
    For the year ended December 31, 2014, we paid an aggregate compensation of RMB10.0 million (US$1.6 million) to our directors and executive officers. For the year ended December 31, 2014, we did not grant any options or restricted share units to our executive officers. Other than fees paid to our independent directors for board services rendered, we only paid compensation to those directors who also served as executive officers.

    And from 2014 annual report page 93 share ownership.
    ------------------------------
    I view these whole Directors and Executive Officers (around 10 peoples) got paid poorly for their performance.

    Jaso's product is more competitive now. Hope a good Q2/2015 is coming...

  • In March, it passed TUV High Grade Hail Test.
    Today Jaso announce it passed California Fremont RETC four category hail impact test. It is tougher than TUV tests.

    If Jaso can deliver a good Q2/2015 earning and guide good for the second half year, then the buyout issue will be over, and the $9.69 buyout will just served as a stopping panic selling tactics. Otherwise it is quite unpredictable ....

  • Reply to

    From Standard & Poor

    by ja_solar_1 Jun 8, 2015 8:40 PM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jun 9, 2015 5:07 PM Flag

    Jaso CEO has reputation in China. He is a member of China national congressman.
    We should be able to get at least $9.69/share from his offer.

    The process will take a while. The Q2/2015 result should also impact the deal.

    From Jaso 2014 Annual report, CEO and Jinglong owns 15.63% only.
    All Directors and Officers as a Group owns 16.69%, which we do not know their individual intention.
    In case go to the final vote, I think the CEO control's share 15.63% is exclusive ( can't be counted).

    Can Q3/2015 CC impact the final results ?
    Just wait to see...

  • learner1001 learner1001 Jun 5, 2015 10:20 AM Flag

    For Jaso's earning power at the end of this year, if Jaso is listed in HongKong, the PPS should be at least $15.

    $9.69 is kind too low. I guess...

  • Reply to

    Schmid vs. JA Solar 400MW Deal

    by ivannikolic35 Jun 1, 2015 5:34 AM
    learner1001 learner1001 Jun 4, 2015 7:42 AM Flag

    JASO's annual reports is available at Jasolar website under Investors-Financials.
    Jaso is turning around from the end of 2013. It begin to make profits since Q4/2013. From the trend, Jaso should continue to do quite well.
    It guides 3.6 to 4GW for 2015 and is expanding capacity and downstream projects.

    I predict JASO PPS will rise way above $10 by the end of this year.

    From 2014 annual report page 87:
    Compensation of Directors and Executive Officers
    For the year ended December 31, 2014, we paid an aggregate compensation of RMB10.0 million (US$1.6 million) to our directors and executive officers. For the year ended December 31, 2014, we did not grant any options or restricted share units to our executive officers. Other than fees paid to our independent directors for board services rendered, we only paid compensation to those directors who also served as executive officers.

    And from 2014 annual report page 93 share ownership. I view these whole Directors and Executive Officers (around 10 peoples) got paid poorly for their performance, which is quite different from what you have claimed. Go to check how much a CEO from U.S solar company (like FSLR) is paid, people should know what I mean Jaso whole management team is not paid well at all.

    I understand why Jaso did a 1:5 reverse split in year 2012 when Solar industry is crashing.
    But Jaso has done a 3:1 split in year 2008 when company is doing good also.

    I encourage investor take a look of the Jaso's 2013 and 2014 annual report, compare 2013 and 2014 report (under DIRECTORS, SENIOR MANAGEMENT AND EMPLOYEES section around page 85 to 95) , and make the judgement who is really a #$%$?

FSLR
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