Wow, Talk about drinking the Cool-Aid ??? Stock has tanked 12% in 5 days and you tell me that Macau makes 3x that of Vegas, Like that was some accomplishment. Then you mention EBITDA, one of the most abused smoke and mirror tricks in many companies bag of tricks. I wont say another word about this whole divvy thing. But within weeks yield will hit 10% and then a very humbled LVS will regretfully announce that they have to "temporarily" cut the divvy in half. If not altogether. But you know better because Shelly said everything is OK. Hahaha, unbelieveable......
No offense, but I know what Cash Flow is, I know what Free Cash Flow is and I know what Discounted Cash Flow is. I know how to read balance sheets and have learned just about every possible accounting or engineering trick a company uses to paint a rosy picture when things are bad. Bottom line is earnings are much lower and fwd EPS is being revised lower. Sure they have enough cash on hand to keep up the divvy for a while, they have a line of credit, they can do this and that. But that can only last for so long before they say, MR A, we are going to have a liquidity problem very soon. That, my friend is why value players refuse to step in and start picking through the wreckage. This divvy is not safe if the current downturn in Macau doesn't stop. When the stock was 50 and the yield was 5% it looked friggin great didn't it?? Like a no brainer, even I was tempted. That doesn't look so good now does it?
I have looked at their statements, and that's why I didn't jump on board when it held low 50s, I didn't jump in when it held in 40s. God knows where support is at this point.
Just look at one key statistic, they are paying out 77 % of their earnings, which by the way, is still falling. How much longer do you think they can keep paying the current Divy? The ground is shaking under your feet and your whistling past the graveyard. But good luck.
Are you nuts or something? No chance of a Divy cut, hahaha. Let me tell you something about div yields, when it hits, 4.5% yellow warning lights should go off. When they hit 6+ % That is flashing red light signifying imminent impact. When it gets to 8, well lets just say your 300 feet under water in a sub that's leaking and lost engine power. You do not for one moment think that professional bond funds would not be jumping on this trade if they thought it was safe, Their dumping their own bonds in LVS now, before the debt downgrade comes. Buy the company, double down, its a good stock and will turn. But the divvy, it will be cut to conserve cash because more pain is coming for Macau.