The dilution will be 28%. The price before the announcement was $8.99. 72% of $8.99 = $6.47
I've like this management, but they should have authorized a secondary to be dribbled out "at-the-market." No need to cause this pain to shareholders. They didn't need to offer all the shares at once.
The dilution will be about 22%. The price before the announcement was $8.99. 78% of $8.99 = $7.01
Usually, the pps doesn't drop so perfectly with the dilution since they are gaining an asset which guarantees sufficient funds until filing for mesothelioma approval, but since it drop in line with dilution, the numbers at least office their own explanation. These situations usually self-correct. This isn't a junk company without prospects desperate for $$$.
Novartis could dump the GSK mek inhibitor. Squarer didn't think that was likely because it's on market. But Novartis doesn't have all those trials with the Gsk inhibitor like it does with Array's in combo with its own oncology drugs.
If Novartis and Astrazeneca are filing next year, there should be plenty of preliminary Phase III data to report at the latest ASCO. However, no mention of any such expectation at the conference calls or the Morgan Stanley Biotech Conference. I've been trading long and short and have been lucky to escape. I'm looking to invest long. Even forgetting about the filings, the probability of the return of binimetinib is too much to overlook since according to Squarer, Arry has enough money to finish the trial even if Novertis' contractual obligations don't extend that far, and it would only require a small sales force to launch.
I'm only hesitant because the market hasn't corrected yet. Those early morning dumps look like margin calls. I liked the strength at the end of the day.