Good for USD, not good for gold. More pressure on fed to increase rates sooner. This is all anticipated. The phony economy will not be able to handle a couple of % points higher fed funds rate. May take a year or two to get there but when we do, QE4EVER and the USD will lose 50% of its value in no time.
Good points. Peak gold and lower energy costs are a good combination for the miners. Unless pog heads towards 1100, I think we've seen the bottom in IAG. I very much doubt that we will ever see a 2 handle on this stock now.
Yes, niobium included. I agree with angie that POG will fall - dollar is strong, euro is still a mess and US economy is pointing towards a fairly easy transition out of QE and ZIRP. This was anticipated though. We'll see what the fed does when gdp turns negative.
Actually, I've always shared your frustrations regarding Letwin's apparent indifference regarding the share price of IAG. After the very poorly handled events such as divi suspension and commercial production delays, I accepted that Letwin is never going to be focused on the short term PPS. He seems to make very long term plans and he doesn't seem to sugar coat anything. Sometimes it's better to invest in CEO's rather than the co's they run (Google guys, Jobs etc). I think it's fair to say that you wouldn't invest in Letwin but if credit is going to be given where credit is due (as Maven has done) we have to be pleased with a number of initiatives which were fairly long term and are now starting to make a difference to this companies bottom line. Niobium is looking more attractive than ever and perhaps Letwin has held firm on a price which we have known it to be worth all along; AISCC still coming down and it will come down further when Westwood is ramped up to full capacity and we finally seem to be over the huge capex needs in recent Q's. I think we've all known, since early 2013, that IAG would likely be a 2015 story. Let's hope investors start to get in before a move. Westwood will carry us through next year and if POG climbs, Cotes will perhaps be producing gold in 2016.
"If" IAG built a solar plant at every mine site (I know it's not feasable or economical to build one at every site but....) it would reduce AISCC by approximately $42/oz. That's not bad during these tough times for the miners.
If so, I'd appreciate some more long/short opinions. I only follow IAG, HMY & PAAS. I had been fairly bullish on all three but I wasn't very impressed with earnings reports from either HMY nor PAAS. For the first time in quite some time, I think IAG is in a better position than either of the other two. I look forward to some ideas, so I can more actively sell options. I'm married to IAG unfortunately, but I need a mistress!
Thanks, Maven. Seems the analyst asked the exact question for which we had been seeking an answer. I am fairly happy with confirmation that the lower # takes into account the ramp up and tail end of the LOM because as long as they are pulling at least 190K oz's out of Westwood for the next few years, I think the market will be satisfied with that. Thanks for the extract - you yourself are an excellent analyst.
As per recent earnings report "Westwood remains on track to produce between 100,000 and 120,000 ounces in 2014, including the contribution from Mouska". I'd still like to know how many oz's they anticipate producing each year. First 190K was mentioned or at least implied last year, then they stated LOM 165-180K. We now know what they expect from Westwood for 2014 but that doesn't really clarify their annual target..... I don't see an earnings call transcript available. Anyone found any other info that could clarify Westwood expectations?
It's still underperforming in the sector on a relative basis since the low of the day but I'd be fairly impressed if it finished down under 4% after 3M shares being sold on the bids.
If the seller is the buyer from a few weeks ago, they still made money. I think they bought at around $3.02. I will be contacting IR regarding the apparent miss on Westwood.....
I agree with you and some of the miners have indeed put out some fairly decent numbers this Q. However, IAG just keeps missing the mark. I'll stick with it because I still consider it "cheap" but they're not getting enough out of any of their assets so I am now hoping for a takeover. Problem is that Letwin is receiving an incredible financial package all things considered (market cap, performance etc) so he will not go without a fight (or a golden handshake). Furthermore, based on the assets, I figured 1600 gold would translate into approximately $12 for IAG but that was assuming they would get more out of their mines at lower costs. I'd take a $5 buyout now.
Has to be the same trader getting out. Can't really blame them. The Westwood numbers do not appear to be as good as anticipated..... Unfortunately, I am married to this one. I can't look past the overall value (with niobec, Westood even at less attractive profit numbers and further down the line, Cotes) but traders who are in for the fast money will jump back out and never look back, so..... I have over 30K shares with a few thousand more being put to me in a couple of weeks, so this is lousy but not entirely unexpected. I am hoping for a buy out now. I've given management the benefit of any doubt thus far but they praise all involved with Westwood yet the AISCC are higher and the production is expected to be lower. They're either clueless or they think investors are clueless. I don't mine a miss every now and then but how can you praise yourself and others when it happens.......
Do you know how much the exchange rate has changed between USD and SAR since last Q? That may have a significant bearing on earnings.
I just put my money where my mouth is, in a very big way. We'll see how it works out. Gold almost up to 1297 (which will immediately take it to 1300 according to the charts) and IAG, HMY 0.00 increase in PPS. Quite bizzare IMO. Having said that, the algo's are probably programmed by people who know very little about stocks. It will take real people with real money to move the miners but when that happens, the algos will provide fuel to the bullish fire.
I believe that the best way the individual investor can make $ in the market is to trade anomolies and I consider this an anomoly.