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Direxion Daily Small Cap Bear 3X ETF Message Board

leebagain 125 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 26, 2015 3:16 PM Member since: Nov 6, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Gold apple watch

    by goyo4488 Feb 26, 2015 1:44 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 26, 2015 3:16 PM Flag

    No one in America wears gold anymore..... Fashion changes though. It would be an incredible boon for the industry if the wealthiest country in the world actually started wearing the PM again. In the mid 90's, I put all my gold jewelry in a shoe box - probably about 4 oz's. I have no idea what happened to it but it will never be in my possession again. That's how unfashionable it became in the west back then and it still hasn't made a comeback. It will at some point and if any retailer can make it happen, it's Apple.

  • With zero inflation, will the fed increase rates this year.....? I think they do. They have to, in order to preserve their reputation. They cannot afford not to. However, tightening monetary policy with zero inflation would be considered insane, unless it is eased with something other than the fed funds rate. I am still absolutely convinced that within the next 24 months, checks will be mailed out to the general public, courtesy of Uncle Sam!

  • Reply to

    Van Eck continues to buy...

    by thestockmaven Feb 20, 2015 10:18 AM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 20, 2015 5:29 PM Flag

    Ah, ok. Shame. We need a Carl Icahn type!

  • Reply to

    Greece

    by leebagain Feb 20, 2015 1:01 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 20, 2015 5:26 PM Flag

    I think you're correct in your prediction. They bought some time, literally.

  • Reply to

    Greece

    by leebagain Feb 20, 2015 1:01 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 20, 2015 2:42 PM Flag

    Well, I guess I was wrong about that.... Looks like someone folded. CB's rule the world. "Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws". I guess the good sheeple of Greece got in line.

  • leebagain leebagain Feb 20, 2015 2:12 PM Flag

    The AISC was a bright spot. The problem is, almost all the other miners have reported similarly impressive 4Q AISC. That's not good for POG and it dilutes the upside potential in SP. Having said that, I do think that IAG is the most undervalued miner, so maybe we will outperform on a relative basis.

  • leebagain by leebagain Feb 20, 2015 1:01 PM Flag

    Curious as to what you think will happen..... My opinion has changed over the past few days. I now think there is a fairly good chance that Greece leaves the euro. However, I don't think the contagion would be as bad as many expect. They owe about 350B. That's about 4 months of POMO. Although the likes of Germany will not provide Greece with new loans, they will certainly bail out there own banks if they come under strain due to Greek debt exposure..... How quickly Greece recovers would probably determine whether real damage will occur. If they recovered fairly quickly, there would likely be talk of the other PIGS dropping out. If that happens, all bets are off. Imagine Italy defaulting..... that would make Lehman look like a teddy bears picnic!

  • Reply to

    Van Eck continues to buy...

    by thestockmaven Feb 20, 2015 10:18 AM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 20, 2015 11:12 AM Flag

    Someone has a voice and a loud one at that. That's re#$%$uring to me. Look at how much control Paulson has over AU. IAG has been crying out for an activist investor for a long time. I don't know much about Van Eck but anyone who owns that much of a company is going to be screaming down the phone at the CEO when he makes dumb #$%$ decisions and perhaps even before such a decision is made!

  • Reply to

    Flow through shares of 50 mil?

    by sakhaneft Feb 18, 2015 5:58 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 18, 2015 6:05 PM Flag

    I saw that and wondered what the heck that was..... I didn't think they could do a secondary without informing all shareholders, so I don't know what it is but the words "issued" and "shares" suggest it is dilution....

  • Reply to

    0.03 PS for 4th Q (adjusted)

    by leebagain Feb 18, 2015 5:27 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 18, 2015 5:51 PM Flag

    I don't see anything of any real significance that we didn't know about. Someone with more of a finance background might be able to glean something from the depreciation, tax and amortization data but as far as the operations are concerned, it's what we were told in the prelim report. CC might reveal something, especially if asked about acquisitions.

  • Read on....

  • Reply to

    8th red day in a row

    by liarspoker500 Feb 17, 2015 4:18 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 18, 2015 2:43 PM Flag

    My next and final (before the final) buy in was set for 2.15. It wouldn't have brought my DCA down much, so it's no big miss. Not sure why you exclude the debt from your equation, poker.... Cash is important in terms of liquidity but when it comes to valuation, I would only consider the net cash, which currently stands at about 200M.

  • leebagain by leebagain Feb 18, 2015 1:55 PM Flag

    It is still a disaster. Firstly, I don't understand how they can say that it will ramp up next year and yet they provide a 110-130K full year production guidance. If the past two Q's are 35K Oz's, that's not a "ramp up" as they state in the preliminary release. Then we're told in the same release that projected capital expense at Westwood is 80M. So they're spending 80M to make 54M - gold assumed price of 1250 and AISC around 800 for Westwood = $450 x 120K. Am I missing something.....? Even if you back out the capital expenditure from the AISC (about $300/oz) that's just above break even on Westwood for 2015 and that is by far IAG's highest grade mine. Where am I off with this.....? It was supposed to be the lowest cost mine in the company. I just don't see that - not going forward either!

  • Reply to

    Question about selling the niobium mine.

    by dessertman88 Feb 17, 2015 1:51 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 18, 2015 10:12 AM Flag

    Yep. I suspect that Letwin figures that more mines = more job security and more bonuses.

  • Reply to

    Question about selling the niobium mine.

    by dessertman88 Feb 17, 2015 1:51 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 17, 2015 6:02 PM Flag

    I read a good case for oil heading back down to a new low recently and it's a very similar situation in the gold industry. Apparently about 25-30% of rigs in US have been taken off line. However, production hasn't dropped. The companies are simply cranking up the production on the most profitable rigs. The argument was that rig counts would have to drop by about the same again before a bottom is made in oil..... I wasn't entirely sold on the data but it lent some conviction to the idea that the lows in oil will be tested and it will not be a V shaped recovery. Anyway, it's kind of the same for the miners. There hasn't been a complete washout and world production has not come down. I still think we've seen the bottom in pog but it would take a test of 1000 to create fire sales.

  • Reply to

    Question about selling the niobium mine.

    by dessertman88 Feb 17, 2015 1:51 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 17, 2015 5:13 PM Flag

    Poker - I'm not answering for maven but I agree with him and it's not's the purchase, it's the price.... With gold above 1200, no one is willing to sell the lower aisc mines at a discount. There's a kind of stalemate in the industry at the moment. I'd love to see a PR that IAG have bought, e.g. the CC mine in CO for the 500M they have banked but there is no way AU are selling that mine outright for that amount, so why not wait until the likes of ANV go under and pick their assets up at a discounted price..... If pog doesn't drop and those miners survive, you pay off the note - win, win. At 1200 there are no fire sales and IAG needs a fire sale or no sale.

  • Reply to

    Question about selling the niobium mine.

    by dessertman88 Feb 17, 2015 1:51 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 17, 2015 3:30 PM Flag

    I agreed with the sale of Niobec, in principal (I don't want other commodities, I want gold). I anticipated problems with commodities because of the slow down in China. However, the price was totally wrong. Niobec was worth $1B, at least. It was given away for about 6x earnings, so yes, at that price, they might as well have kept it because it brought AISC down considerably. Any purchase Letwin makes is going to be hugely speculative, which is stupid. They shouldn't even consider a purchase unless they can get 250K oz's/year from a LOM x 20 at an AISC under $1100 (with potential to improve) and they shouldn't pay more than $400M for something like that. Talk of buying CC is very discouraging.

  • Reply to

    The company will sell for $3.00 a share.

    by juliusbeoris12 Feb 17, 2015 12:44 PM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 17, 2015 12:50 PM Flag

    You actually think shareholders would sell their shares for 2.42..... That's one of the worst comments I have seen on this message board, ever!

  • Reply to

    If IAG holds up today

    by leebagain Feb 17, 2015 11:41 AM
    leebagain leebagain Feb 17, 2015 12:44 PM Flag

    I hear you and yes, it's been a horrid drop in a very short period but it did get all the way down to around 1.40, so a decent Q report tomorrow and the rot might stop. I look at the likes of HMY and ANV. If I owned either of them, I would rotate into IAG. HMY is a pipe dream when pog is below 1300 and the vultures are circling ANV. What concerns me about POG is that none of the miners have filed bk and they're seemingly not ready to sell any of their profitable assets at firesale prices. The conf call tomorrow will be interesting. Letwin will likely say something stupid but I am hoping he says that unless a profitable mine can be purchased, the debt will be repaid. Why wouldn't you send that message out to the market, i.e. if you don't want to sell cheap, we have a perfectly viable alternative.

  • leebagain by leebagain Feb 17, 2015 11:41 AM Flag

    With gold down 20 bucks as I type, it hasn't traded too badly since the 12 month low last November. It easily outperformed its peers on it's run to 3.30 and since then it has underperformed, relative to its peers, but not by a huge amount.... I do think the 500M in the bank creates some rotation into IAG when pog gets this low. In November, there were two adverse factors which don't exist any longer. One was the unfinalized deal and the other was the ebola breakout in Africa. POG is about 7% off it's long term low and IAG is about 65% above its Nov low. Earnings could be fairly decent with a positive outlook, so we could see some solid support here while debt ridden miners take a bigger hit.

TZA
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