"not like Cote Lake which is now delayed to 2021" What is your source for that date? My understanding is that Cote is on hold but it could be put into production within 2 years if POG held above a certain price, perhaps $1500.
Does that mean they will continue to profit from niobium production through that date? If so, that's at at least a positive for the rest of the year as far as earnings are concerned.....
Me neither, which is why they keep going up for so long - no one wants to take that chance. However, the writing has been on the wall for nflx. Even though they made progress with their own content (that's what will save them) the cable operators are fed up with the amount of data they hog, HBO will now stream straight to your tv and although it's not technically legal, I wonder which service will be uninterupted due to ample streaming capacity......
What uniowner states in his post is correct, especially note that "Its velocity of money that is the most important and right now we are at multi-decade lows of M2".
QE did not work. It did not create inflation because, as uni states, it's velocity that matters (GDP is based on the amout of times a unit of currency is exchanged for goods - if the same $1 is exchanged multiple times, you get a higher gdp and higher inflation - if it goes from the fed to a bank, it just sits in an account or it's used to purchase a stock share - it doesn't continue to be exchanged for goods). So, we will inevitably see deflation because the FED hasn't come up with a solution to this problem yet. They will also want everyone to feel some delfationary fear before they come to the rescue. Fiscal policy is slow but fiscal policy is all that will create M2. QE only creates M1 (money supply) which doesn't create inflation (at least not outside of Manhattan RE, collector Buggati cars etc). I doubt the fed will buy treasury bonds on the open market again (POMO) but even if they do, there will be more fiscal stimulus this time, e.g. bridges to nowhere, cash for clunkers, homebuyer credits, tax credits etc. Either way, it's money printing and it will devalue the $.
From the article "I wouldn't be surprised to see AISC at less than $1,100/oz for IAMGOLD in 2015" I have been saying for the past few months that we will see under 1100 early next year. With niobec, it would have been trebble figures but under 1100 without is good enough, as long as they put the 500M to good use!
This is what I anticipated to be the short term economic situation before fed creates inflation, at any cost. My obvious concern, a couple of years ago, was whether gold could weather a deflationary storm. As most of you know, firstly, I consider labor costs and other imput costs to be good for the miners but I also found opinions which suggested that gold itself isn't necessarily a bad investment during times of deflation (I wasn't totally convinced on that but it depends on the cause of the deflation, e.g. war is deflationary but it's also a crisis in which investors seek safe havens....). Anyway, I am sticking with my thesis. I had a lot of shorts in place which had just started to work when IAG went below $3, causing me to have to scramble everying I could get my hands on into IAG and cover a margin call. I'm fine with that. In the long run, I expect IAG to pay off handsomely.
In a couple of years, when the miners start a final parabolic move up after gradual increases, remember how bizzare the extreme level of selling has been, because it will get just as bizzare on the upside. That's why my price target of 14 with gold in the mid 1500's seems reasonable to me. With AISC under 1100 and production around 1M oz's, they should be making around a buck a share at that point and a 14x multiple is more than reasonable when everyone is clammering for gold and Cote can be very profitable in the future if gold holds around that 1550 price.
He has a certain amount of time to use the $ and if it's not used within that time, yes, it goes toward the debt..... Doesn't make sense for a creditor to put pressure on the debtor to spend $ but that's the deal on that loan apparently. They may have asked for payment from the proceeds and IAG may have told them they have some great opportunities that may or may not come to fruition in the next 6 months, so the bank said ok, but if that deal doesn't come off then the $ goes to us.
Maybe the shorts are reeling me in..... All you can do is look at the facts.... Gold up another 10 bucks and IAG now a pure gold play..... In the short term it's a voting machine but in the long term it's a "gold" weighing machine!
IAG was at 3.30. I realize that we've sold our most profitable asset since then but still, it's not like we gave the $ away...... A 30% drop relative to POG in just one month.....
If you think of it from a kind of wave perspective, if gold was going to hit bottom in anticipation of rising rates and deflation, it probably would have (and therefore has) occurred during this last sell off. It's likely that there will be a lot of denial by the fed that further stimulus will be considered but the more that the global economy displays the effects of a global depression, the less likely they are to be believed. The lack of action from the fed will become a tail wind for gold rather than a head wind IMO. Gold will not move up fast though. I think we all realize that. There's a lot of repair work to be done on the charts just to keep us from falling back below 1220 and the fed will want to save face and allow some pain before doing anything. Maybe gold holds consistently above 1450 by end of 2015 and then stimulus is rolled out. 2016 is when I anticipate gold heading back up towards its all time high but I don't see it making a new ATH until at least 2017. Of course, for IAG investors, we really just need gold to hold above 1400 to get the stock going but my target is a pps of 14 and I think we will need gold in the 1500-1600 area and Cote ready to role before we see that. A couple of junior acquisitions to bring down the AISC and signs that input costs are gradually coming down would help leverage against POG on the way up and of course, if general sentiment changes in relation to gold miners....
The points you make regarding input costs were one of my original reasons for buying miners rather than the metal..... Isn't working yet.
If you look at a 50 year chart, this bear market will end up looking like either the one that ended in 76 before the huge market top in 1980 or the one that started in 1980 going all the way to 2000. WARNING: The 100 year gold chart is scary viewing for longs!
I think Essakane, which is the biggest producing mine for IAG is in Africa..... I wonder if that is having an adverse effect on share price.....
I suppose it shouldn't be considered a tripple bottom unless it breaks out above the trendline, but the tripple low is still very supportive.
I share the same thoughts. FED will need to let everyone feel the pain for a while before they can save the day! Gold is not out of the woods yet and of course, it could certainly get down to 1K. However, a tripple bottom would be very supportive. You would have so many buyers coming in who sold out at the bottom (and there's three of them). TA is supplemenatl IMO but I found it incredibly reliable when used in that way when I was trading.