The intention to sell $2B shares shaved off $1B of the pps. There's always so much subjectivity involved in secondary offerings. It makes it very difficult to put a valuation on the shares. However, I think AU will head down a little further over the next few days then pick up. I may be a buyer. Trying to figure out how much value they can pull out of the company as a result of the break up and formation of the 2nd company.
I think they're just cutting losses but obviously the big hit to PPS is the dilution of current shareholder value and the fact that they are doing it when the pps is in the toilet. Seems like bad timing in that regard and it seems desperate but at least they're paying down debt with the proceeds.
"Also, there is no direct correlation between gold price and amount of paper money in circulation". I agree. However, as sandiego opines, if M2 picks up, significant inflation will be a feature of the economy and the amount of money put into circulation then has an effect on the gold price (albeit delayed). The dollar as a reserve currency is a privilage to the US but it can become a liability. I think a currency being the WRC can create a sleeping giant of inflation. When a nations currency resides only in that nation (to a degree) and it starts chasing goods in exchange due to imminent devaluation (M2/inflation) that's one thing, but when it's being sent home from all over the globe with the click of a mouse, there is no way the fed can mop up that liquidity. They would have to sell bonds on the open market and that would push interest rates up to a level exceeding that which the treasury can afford. I realized a couple of years ago that M1 had no bearing on POG and knowing that M2 was not increasing, I still bought IAG. I made my first purchase in spring of 2013 and paid around 7.50 for my first batch of shares. That's a huge percentage loss but value (perceived at least) dragged me in, in the end. The risk/reward seemed worth it and it seems to be worth it now x 2!
Demand from the East should pick up soon and support POG. It will be interesting to see if some of the money coming out of chinese RE is moved in to PM's. It does seem like one more washout might be necessary in order to get the retail investers in the east back into the gold market though. I just don't see POG falling through the multi year low. End of QE is priced in, increase in rates in 2015 is priced in and that multi year low is pretty close to the industry average AISC. We're already into Sept. and I don't think Europe will do much more this month to devalue its currency. My guess (and that's all I've got) is that we'll continue to drift lower this year but POG will not break through that low unless global gdp improves markedly without more easing. Q1 will be the big test for the economy and I don't see it being much better than Q12014. At that point, the fed will be stuck between a rock and a hard place. If they ease, they lose credibility and if they increase rates, they slowly head back towards recession as they increase 25 bp's/month.
Niobium is the perfect hedge for a gold miner. IAG may have over paid for Cotes but at least it seems they will not sell niobec for less than it's worth. Unless they are offered over $1B, I wouldn't want them to sell until POG is consistently over 1400.
1050 wouldn't be the end of the world for IAG, not now that Westwood is producing. A lot of miners will close up completely if POG hits and stays at 1050 for even just one Q. My guess would be that IAG would be one of the babies thrown out with the bath water, so share price would be hit hard. However, it would survive and they could even pick up a couple of juniors at fire sale prices if they wanted to.
My 3.51 order was filled. Expecting POG to drop further and assuming IAG follows it down, my next purchase will be at 3.25 (assuming no new multi year low on POG). I'll be selling puts at that price too!
Agreed. I put in a bid at 3.51 earlier but no sale. Not chasing more shares at the ask. However, after the fairly good report a couple of weeks ago and the likelihood that IAG will acheive an AISC under $1K within the next few months (inc. niobec cont.), IAG is a buy here IMO.
1185 was the multi year low for POG. We're only 6% off that low and my guess is we could test it pretty soon. I don't think we'll break through it and I don't think IAG goes under 3. I have some dry powder and it will be used to buy more IAG. I currently hold about 2/3 of what I held a couple of months ago. I would like to get that other 1/3 back in the account!
But the value investor in me sees a 4% drop and I figure those shares will be worth a lot more in a couple of years, so why not add a few more...... If IAG gets close to 3 without POG making a new multi year low, I may bet the farm.
I do think gold will struggle (in USD and generally due to the global economic conditions) and global investors penchant for US investments and USD. I am short several companies in the S&P 500 but I may need to cover because I anticipate the current trend remaining in place for at least 6 months. ECB is doing just enought to keep Europe out of another recession (no more no less) and in doing so, it maintains solvency for corporate US's biggest customer base whilst at the same time providing another ace for US to keep up its sleeve (more QE if necessary). All in all, everything is going in USA's favor at the moment and all the fed has to do is..... nothing. The stocks I am short have a P/E around 20 with limited growth potential and debt levels over 50% of market cap. I shouldn't be concerned about these shorts but you only have to look at the Nikkei in 1989 to see how crazy bubbles can get. Of course, they all pop, so I suppose I shall just have to add to my short postion in a few months!
The money has to be parked somewhere and with Europe heading back towards recession and China's property bubble bursting, the USD will be considered a safe haven. I don't think it's been as high as 84 since before the crash in 2009 so it is quite incredible that after 4 Trillion in USD dilution, it's back up here, but all currencies are in a race to the bottom and USA is in better shape than most economically, so..... If you've got $5B in cash, in what currency do you hold it - rubles, yuan..... I don't think so. USD will be the last domino to fall but fall it will. With sanctions against Russia and the resulting sanctions against USA, together with Europe heading back into recession and China seemingly quite willing to let some air out of their economic bubble, how will US companies export enough product overseas with less demand and a higher USD. It just gives them more leeway to further dilute and that they will. QE4EVR. JAPANESE style.
Good for USD, not good for gold. More pressure on fed to increase rates sooner. This is all anticipated. The phony economy will not be able to handle a couple of % points higher fed funds rate. May take a year or two to get there but when we do, QE4EVER and the USD will lose 50% of its value in no time.
Good points. Peak gold and lower energy costs are a good combination for the miners. Unless pog heads towards 1100, I think we've seen the bottom in IAG. I very much doubt that we will ever see a 2 handle on this stock now.
Yes, niobium included. I agree with angie that POG will fall - dollar is strong, euro is still a mess and US economy is pointing towards a fairly easy transition out of QE and ZIRP. This was anticipated though. We'll see what the fed does when gdp turns negative.
Actually, I've always shared your frustrations regarding Letwin's apparent indifference regarding the share price of IAG. After the very poorly handled events such as divi suspension and commercial production delays, I accepted that Letwin is never going to be focused on the short term PPS. He seems to make very long term plans and he doesn't seem to sugar coat anything. Sometimes it's better to invest in CEO's rather than the co's they run (Google guys, Jobs etc). I think it's fair to say that you wouldn't invest in Letwin but if credit is going to be given where credit is due (as Maven has done) we have to be pleased with a number of initiatives which were fairly long term and are now starting to make a difference to this companies bottom line. Niobium is looking more attractive than ever and perhaps Letwin has held firm on a price which we have known it to be worth all along; AISCC still coming down and it will come down further when Westwood is ramped up to full capacity and we finally seem to be over the huge capex needs in recent Q's. I think we've all known, since early 2013, that IAG would likely be a 2015 story. Let's hope investors start to get in before a move. Westwood will carry us through next year and if POG climbs, Cotes will perhaps be producing gold in 2016.
"If" IAG built a solar plant at every mine site (I know it's not feasable or economical to build one at every site but....) it would reduce AISCC by approximately $42/oz. That's not bad during these tough times for the miners.