If gold and silver are set to turn up, it implies that the dollar is peaking, so what's going on? Copper is on the verge of freefall, which has dangerous implications for the economy, and if the Fed doesn't do something soon the dollar index will likely head to the 120 area which will have catastrophic consequences. They have called an emergency meeting for Monday, so it is possible that they are going to pull some rabbit out of the hat then, such as announcing another round of QE. If they do it will rip the rug out from under the dollar - this could be what the Commercials are anticipating.
Is everything else just noise..... If you look at the charts, it's plain to see. The big banks have all been on the same page for several years - long USD, short commodities. I'm not sure anything else really matters (until of course it does). Even if you look at the chart from just today, USD dropped, gold was up 10 bucks, USD then recovered some and gold heads back down.... Not sure all the palaver regarding the Russian jet even matters; just the effect it has on the mighty dollar. Personally, I have thought for quite some time that all other currencies will fail (be revalued) before USD and USD will hit close to 120 on the DXY before the fed intervenes and joins the race to the bottom..... If that is the case, gold will surely head down to around the 800 mark.
I could certainly take that advice..... I will not be chasing it, that's for sure. Sandiego is right about the Jurisdiction but it's the Golpu mine in PNG that I am sure every senior would like to get its hands on.... Thanks for those comments too, Sandiego.
IAG is now trading at almost 3 times the price of HMY (I think it was all the way there last week). I really don't consider 3x as risky as IAG. IAG should perhaps trade at a premium to HMY due to IAG's cash position but not by 300%. Just food for thought..... I will be buying more HMY at 0.53. They will probably have to reverse split and I dare say the pps will take another hit when that happens. However, I am practicing what I preach..... I don't really care if these stocks go down further (I cannot expect to time the bottom). I just want some more, so I can benefit when they eventually go back up. Will HMY survive.....? I don't know but they have assets and they have a few mines producing at costs below current POG, so they have some options available to them before they become insolvent. I expect HMY will be worth more than IAG "if" pog heads back up to 1500. My biggest position is still, by far, IAG.
Indeed. I told my children, just the other day, how lucky they are to be living in this country at this time. The opportunities for young people are still abundant, especially when compared to those in most other countries. Money is, of course, important, but family, health and the simple comforts in life are far more important than more $.
As for Clive, what I like about him, is that he will share a target, but he'll also tell you that he will invest with a buffer because he never expects to be entirely correct. I suspect that may be what you are referring to. I will have to take a look. If I ever get my $ back on IAG, perhaps I'll stick with his calls afterwards!!!
Thanks for your post!
If I can make a suggestion: Don't worry so much about how low IAG will go. If you believe it will survive, regardless of whether gold goes down to 800, just forget about the value of your shares and wait for gold to enter another bull market (some still consider this period to be a period within a secular bull market in gold). I remember looking at share prices of consumer companies in 2008, trading for pennies. Several years later and they were in the 20's. You could say it's "apples and oranges" but the point is, whether you bought a stock like that for $2.00 and watched it go down to $0.25, it didn't really matter when it went back up to $20.00. If it survives, at some point in the future, as long as gold heads back up within a few years, it will probably thrive. If, as I have, you have already lost about 75% of your entire investment, it might be worth just hanging in there with the remainder of your investment, regardless of how low it goes.....
Yep. Clive Maud has not wavered from his call for lower lows all the way down to 800 and he is bullish, long term! He started shorting near the 2011 high and every time we get a bounce off support he has said don't believe it. He is trading gold purely on a technical basis and he's been correct in doing so because nothing fundamental causes gold to go up..... As for the stock market, I don't care how high it goes, I am sticking with my prediction - S&P @ 900. Unless scientists figure out how to create free energy, I don't expect to change my mind on that. But for now, the market relies on the Yellen put. The FED has got their back. When FASB was changed, shorting stocks was banned for a while and the so called circuit breakers were installed, I should have known that the markets would remain rigged for a long, long time.... It's just going to be worse when it collapses. That is why I am not talking percentages..... I don't think it matters how high it goes. It's still going to crash all the way back down to a certain level. Forget about 10% corrections and 20% bear markets. If the S&P goes to 5000, it is still going back down to around 900 IMO because the increases are not based on increased revenues or even profits.
That multi year low in gold is actually referenced as "Brown's bottom". I do think the FED forced him to sell that gold though. From what I recall, there were major US banks caught in a gold short squeeze and they would have failed had it not been for all the UK gold being put on the market, allowing them to trade out of their positions. It enabled the fiat ponzi scheme to continue and I am sure the UK has issued many multiples of the amount of gold they sold, in debt. I hope, for the sake of the UK, they start buying it back with that funny money.
I'm sure they all know that, san. Greenspan seems to be finding it difficult to keep the secret lately.
" Usually very early and get killed early and make it up on the back end". Same here. I'm not sweating it much. If I was invested in a consumer driven company which can become entirely irrelevant, I'd probably sell. Gold hasn't gone completely out of style in several thousand years, so I can wait. GLTY.
I have given up predicting the future price of gold. Bernanke gained a lot of my respect, retrospectively, due to his comment that no on understands it. It's a great topic to discuss though and this is a great board. All I know is that I have 50K shares, I currently have losses just a little shy of $100K and I am not selling until the stock gets above $12. It's curious how easily it could get there..... By my estimates, it would only take a 25% increase in POG. A commodity rising 25% over a two year period wouldn't even raise an eybrow. I think oil recently moved up that much in a two WEEK period..... Most folks would think we're crazy for anticipating a 600% increase in a stock when in actual fact, you could say there's a 50/50 chance of it..... Gold either goes up to 1500 or it breaks through 1000. Place your bets!
Apparently, the other union who have slightly less members at HMY than the union who agreed terms, may be able to scupper that deal. Personally, I think its pretty much resolved for HMY. I don't know how long they have to get the stock back above $1 but it looks like a RS may be unavoidable. As long as they do not dilute, a RS may be priced in anyway.
Yesterday they pre announced a 10% increase in production Q/Q. I am pretty sure that increase came from their lower cost mines. They don't have much cash left. I don't recall exactly how much - I think it was a total of about 25-30M last Q. But, with the right adjustments made at the high cost mines (slowing and shutting) they can survive. I think they were offered $2B for their share of Golpu when pog was at its ATH in 2011. If pog gets back to 1400+, it would probably be valued at $1B+. TBH, most of their other mines are near EOL and very high AISC but they are worth something at 1400+ gold. Nevertheless, what I believe investors are betting on here, is that HMY can simply stay afloat to keep the vultures at bay until pog gets above 1400. There would then be a bidding war for Golpu. I am sure the big players are hoping to buy it from the receivers for chump change. They have the wage negotiations to resolve (most of their workers are in the union who has agreed a wage increase, so that is positive) and they will probably have to R/S but as long as they don't have to dilute down here, I think that is priced in. I think the risk/reward is well worth it with this one. It's very different from the ANV mess, which I didn't touch on the way down.
are you suggesting that there will be more fire sales in the sector, pushing the prices of IAG etc lower, until all the over leveraged institutions have sold/folded? There were many trading days over the past couple months where gold was up and the entire gold mining sector was down, big. I commented at the time that the gold mining babies where being thrown out with the entire commodities bathwater. Do you anticipate more redemptions like that?
Yesterday, HMY was trading at 1/3 of the IAG price. Earlier this year, they were trading at the same price. HMY is certainly risky but that is quite the discount. If pog remains above 1000, I can't see HMY going bk. They could make adjustments and produce around 400K oz/year at AISC lower than that. They will probably have to R/S soon but I think that is priced in at current levels. Maybe it tests 0.50 but if you expect pog to head back up to 1500 within a year or two, HMY could get back up to 12. Quite the multiple.
Would you hire an accountant to do an attorneys job? The IAG board hired an oil industry executive to run a gold company..... I fell foul of perceived value on this one but hopefully after years of highly paid on the job training, Letwin will get something right.
miners today. However, based on the action during recent market routs, regardless of how much gold goes up, if the DOW was down 500 points, IAG would be red. It's a very dumb market. So dumb that on a day when gold goes up, a 500 point move down in the dow will cause redemptions of gold miners!
Overgrown children playing with million dollar toys at our expense..... I'm all for building for the future but not in the current environment..... Is he just burning the cash so he doesn't have to pay it back to the banks.....
I totally agree with saniego. No rate hike = short term bounce in gold (system stays on life support). Rate hike = gold takes a hit (probably a short term over reaction but it will be painful for iag investors for a while). Either way, the fed is boxed in a corner. Maybe they will make a token increase.... 0.15. What a joke!
You have to wonder if one of the large shareholders are buying just so the company can avoid a reverse split..... The African guy, perhaps..... If the company itself had board approval to buy shares, it would probably cost less than the legal fees alone, never mind the probable loss in equity!
Just read an article on this topic on Marketwatch. It just confirms what I concluded during the past few weeks when the gold miners would get thrashed on the big dow down days, even if gold was higher.... When this whole casino goes up in flames, there will barely be a bid in the market for anything. There will be one epic flash crash. Hopefully, when investors start picking up the pieces, they will pick up some gold!