Everything seems to be trading technically these days, so I do give the TA's a lot of credence. The guy I have been listening to over the past few months says just under $1K will be the bottom, then a new bull market all the way to and past ATH.... He predicted the run up to 1900, then the drop. He hasn't wavered.
If you cannot discern from the posts you read that most of the regulars on this board have made plenty of very good investing decisions in the past (probably a lot more recently than the turn of the century) that have paid off, then perhaps it is you, ctixers, who is clueless...... Yes, we tried to catch a falling knife in IAG and I will admit, my losses are far greater than any loss I have incurred in any investment. However, my thesis remains the same as it was when I bought my first batch of IAG in April 2013. There is no turning back for the fed now and CB's cannot and will not tolerate deflation. The deflation we're seeing is transitory. When it gets going, inflation will be a lot more difficult to control and gold will rise accordingly. I don't need commiseration, just come back to congratulate me when IAG is at $8.
I really hesitated to throw even 20% in; that's how much I expected it to get lower, then we got a drawn down (but with more inventories at refiners - expected) and then the revised GDP..... I assume that's what lifted it 10% but I haven't looked today.....? I honestly expect the S&P to dip just below 1000, oil to go into the low 30's and gold to dip below 1000 (maybe IAG's AISC will be below 1000 by then, perhaps lower if they can get some accretive juniors under their umbrella) but I think you have to be willing to just through a few chips on the table when getting 1% on cash because it really is just a casino!
Yeah, I bought just 20% of what I have available for the energy sector yesterday. Figured it would get down, closer to $36 and I'd have plenty of opportunities to put the other 80% to work. Not complaining, glad I got at least some of it in. The rest will remain in cash, where it's been for the past 4 years!
Until something more compelling presents itself. I'd say that if oil trades in the 20's, I'd consider switching all my IAG into a company like CXO (assuming it followed oil down and then some) or if copper hit $1.50 I'd consider SCCO, but the stocks would have to get walloped, i.e. complete capitulation in the names. Otherwise, I am still looking at gold above 1100, IAG @ .25 of BV and the fed looking more likely to delay rate hikes and embark on some kind of additional easing early in 2016. But you're right, if gold cannot rally in this environment, it's not looking good.
And there it goes - bounces off clear as crystal support at 1.49 and moves up to 1.51, even though POG dropped another $6 during that move.
is like a mirror image. Unbelievable. I switched everything into IAG this morning but I'm not sure I can just leave it. Just doesn't seem to be enough $ in the market controlled by actual humans. I understand how TA can be used to anticipate moves based on human psychology and this mirror image on the chart can mean only one of two things; either one human trader is responsible for a massive percentage of the volume in IAG or more likely, the algo's are entirely in control of the stock. When the program stops itself out of the stock, there's absolutely nothing (humans) in any significant numbers to prevent it dropping to the next support level. Perhaps "investing" is a thing of the past and one can only make any $ in the markets by "trading" for the foreseeable future......
The markets where down around 10% Thurs through Monday. Gold was flat after rallying for a couple of weeks. Gold fell during the crash in 2008/9. It was the fed response to the crash that helped it double over the next couple of years. After all, a stock market crash, in itself, is deflationary. I'm not surprised it didn't continue to rally and the DXY is back up 1.2% today so gold is taking a hit.
Bitcoin tanked during this market drop and BTC had been golds biggest safe haven rival (apart from the dollar of course which also dropped) so that tells me that there is no real demand for any safe haven ATM..... That will change. Central banks are never going to buy bitcoin and the dollar will drop on more fiscal/monetary easing. The gold market is a voting machine in the short term and a weighing machine in the long term. IAG is an absolute steal at this price. I have switched almost everything I have in the sector back into IAG on this pull back. I suspect that they will start receiving analyst upgrades on the next positive move in gold. Letwin made so many screw ups over the past two years that the stock deserved to get pummeled but everything is priced in now and he made all the right decisions this past Q - slowing down Westwood, delaying any Sadiola plans etc. They can get AISC below 1K; Essakane will get them through the next couple of years, then they have Boto. In the meantime, they just need to buy a couple of juniors with their cash. I have one more batch of PAAS which I want to switch, then I will be signing out for a while. I am comfortable enough just sticking with IAG and the amount of shares I have, for the long haul.
Tell me about it..... At some point gold surely has to become a commodity bought on the dips. I have been buying IAG on every 2-4% dip this week and I've accumulated a lot more stock. I have never complained about manipulation, HFT, flash trading, algorithms etc. As far as I am concerned, it is what it is; very frustrating but part of the game. I expect all the same shenanigans to take gold up with the same force as it has come down. At the end of the day, it is a human who programs the algorithms. When JPM etc. tell the spotty teenagers it's time to go short, the switch gets flipped.
IMHO, the only way that oil's slide will stall is a fed rate delay and I expect them to raise in September, so I don't see oil holding up over 40. When 40 is broken, the next low is somewhere around 33. There was a quick reversal when it got down there in 2009. I really don't think it gets down there again. The world was in a depression back then and although I think the S&P will eventually drop to 950, I think the energy sector, having already been decimated long before then, will not be in a position to run up production again as they have over the past several years. I have a lot riding on getting this right. I usually catch falling knives myself but this one I really have to get right.
Apparently, the Saudi's break even point is $20 pbl. I don't think oil gets there but it's a game of chicken at the moment and the Saudi's will win because they are not a corporation with bonds to pay. A huge amount of oil companies around the world will go bk before the Saudi's slow production down and allow price to increase. I wonder if GS are their advisors!
Perhaps. I saw a headline that it's up more this week than any other week, ever..... Something along those lines.... VIX measures volatility though.... maybe it's all the above. I'm still watching oil. I think there will be a major panic in the bond market if oil goes below 40 for a couple of days. Even though that would push rates up (bad for gold) I'm guessing under 1200 gold is simply seen as a safe haven place to park $. Usually, right or wrong, I have a very solid understanding of why a security is trading a certain way (oil is so obvious). I don't think pog gets past 1200/50 without a significant drop in USD and/or a big uptick in CPI. This move is bargain hunting/short squeeze/temp safe haven imo. Maybe a fed delay will take it to 1300 by end of year. Anyone who believes (as I do) that the entire global economy is going to have to be reset, would be happy with that. If everything stabilizes - oil bounces, China bounces etc. it wouldn't be enough to push gold to a new multi year low from the 1250/1300 area and I suppose bull markets are born on pessimism and grow on skepticism!
I agree that a decent labor contract deal (I think the union will agree to a point more than HMY's offer) will add 20 cents to the pps. I think they have played it right. They've positioned the company to close mines if the union doesn't agree and they will have to do that in order to survive.
I agree with most of what you state. However, I think you're way off with your BV of $5. I think it is $3 at the most. They just wrote down the equivalent of the entire market cap of the company.
They did all back off but IAG backed off a lot more (at least on my watch list). Not surprising really. It's come a long way from 1.15. Not surprised to see some profit taking. When you consider IAG missed on earnings, an almost double from the low is quite incredible. Of course, those of us who follow the stock understand why it went on this run and it is still way undervalued. Therefore, I will be buying any dips.