The recent failure to break through 1220 was a big warning sign (not that I heeded it). The USD was down 1.4% on the day and gold was down $6. Those with the deepest pockets are controlling the gold market and they are very much in control. They want it to go down and yes, they are having fun (at our expense).
"chances are there is a good reason mine or asset is being sold!)" Totally agree. No one is selling any profitable mines. However, a company the size of ABX can sometimes just want to get out of a region. It's possible that they will get a good mine but not probable. The debt should have been paid off and shares should have (and still) be bought under $2.
Very pragmatic and measured approach. I entirely agree with you. I think market also realizes that there's no need to be worried about missing the party. It's not going parabolic overnight.
Yep, like I said Maven, the sellers will rationalize any excuse and they have the upper hand in the gold market ATM. This hit came at the worst time for IAG. Even a good report will not pop the stock in a market like this. My fear is that the fed has actually realized that QE does nothing for the general economy and they will raise regardless of the potential hissy fit from the market. The problem they have is that monetary easing is all they have available and if they stop, the cost of servicing the US debt will rise at the same time that tax receipts will start to fall. I'm still bullish on gold but it is indeed very frustrating.
Some day it will be any excuse to buy it. You really can make a case for and against gold based on any economic data. So, as of yesterday, it appears that the TPTB are no longer concerned about the USD, it's only the 10 USTY that matters when it comes to gold, so the USD can go to hell in a hand bag but as long as the return on your 10 UST has gone up 20 pips, trade in your gold and lend all your money to the USG for 10 years, getting a 0.40% real return on your "investment". I am beginning to think that we may be in one of golds very long term bear markets and it will take one heck of a catalyst to get back to a bull. I suppose it just needs to hold the 52 wk low in order to wait out the shorts.
IAG's hedges have cost them about 65M in the past few months. I care. I am not opposed to hedging in principal but the amount of oil use that they hedged (90% for the first year I believe) and the amount of years out they hedged, is just irresponsible in my opinion. That goes beyond hedging to stay afloat, that's hubris IMO and yes, I agree, hedging gold should always be considered, even the whole lot if it's going to maintain a divi and growth. However, this is fuel AND currencies.
Not a chance and yet it should have been a very easy decision..... FWIW, I think I understand why so many miners hedge now..... It's certainly not for the right reason and I respect those CEO's who resist the temptation. If you think about it, from the ceo's perspective (with their own personal interests at heart) if they hedge and get it right, they make a big noise about it and announce the savings. If it goes against them, they put the loss on the books as a one time charge and they still get to harp on about the AISC (due to the lower energy and currency). If I have any of this wrong, let me know, but I think WS kind of accepts it. Just seems there is more upside (for the ceo) than downside.
No need for them to take the June option off the table right now..... Doesn't mean there is a cat in hells chance they will actually raise..... I think they have started to believe their own though and that makes them sound really quite convincing..... Not gonna happen, especially if USD perks up after their hawkish comments.
Regardless, I'll offer my 2 cents for today...... The pog is down because (IMO) there was a huge build up in inventories.... We are definitely heading into a severe (relatively speaking) period of deflation. Those inventories are going to have to be sold off at discounts because the credit is no longer available or wanted (by those that can qualify). However, I stick to the thesis I have held for the past two years, i.e. there will be checks in the mail to all in the form of a tax credit, probably by the end of this year and if not, certainly next year. It still doesn't make sense as to why gold didn't take it's cue from the USD but.....
I'm still looking at 2.39 as resistance. If the fed language pushes pog up a perent or two, we will probably break through it here and they I think $3 will be easy to achieve as long as the earnings report is not bad.
When I saw ABX go 3-4% higher on their miss, based on maintaining their targets etc., I thought "ABX have given Letwin the play book and all he has to do is be optimistic" That's all he needs to do. Doesn't have to lie or fabricate the truth, just be optimistic about cost savings, AISC for 2015 and POG etc. The street actually wants to hear it and believe it, they just proved as much. I have never heard anything from him that is shareholder friendly but we shall see.
It is all objective.... The DXY is down 1.4% today..... and gold is also down..... There are solid theories in support of golds price direction but you just can't bank on anything when it comes to POG.
I agree and I have to say, WS got this one right all the way down..... Letwin's blunders have endorsed the shorts decision to keep shorting it.
My target is $13.10 with pog at 1500. It will probably overshoot to around 15.50 and perhaps higher depending on things such as cote viability, reinstatement of div etc. If they can make a net profit of $300/oz with $1500 gold, that would be 0.77/sh. Put a 17x multiple on that, which is very reasonable in a gold bull market and there you have it. There will probably be a complete blow off top in the miners if gold gets to around 1600 because all the cost cutting will translate into pure profit and they will not go crazy with capex for a while, so you could get a miner like IAG operating at AISC around 850/900 when pog is around 1600. I don't think that is pie in the sky - 25% increase in pog over a couple of years and where would those numbers put the pps of IAG - $26/share? People often forget that the market gets completely irrational on both sides. I think the low in IAG around 1.53 was irrational by a factor of 1/4 which is why I think that based on a value stock metric, $13.10 is reasonable at 1500 gold, but it will certainly overshoot.
Just more jawboning from the fed - data dependent blah, blah, blah..... With the low consumer sentiment number today and the mixed housing reports, there's no way they will risk spooking this market - absolutely no chance. I am pleased with the stronger IAG performance as the close draws nearer. pps is coming close to my target for resistance. Might get there tomorrow. Will need a big boost from pog to break through IMO.
Yep, it's definitely the ugly duckling but I'm more interested in were it closed today. I had a buy order in yesterday morning which didn't fill. We'll see.