the mkt has given up what 1,2% in the past week after shooting up like a trocket and youre calling for 50 ?
you really need to understand mkt cycles. the trend is still bullish and the retail investor hasnt joined back in yet, so its still going higher.
if the mkt was based on reality, sure; it would be heading downhill with these earnings and retail sales but the worlwide feds are pusing the mkt up and theyre going to keep doing it.
i got back at 90 after the shutdown. the financial guy i like sees a possible 30% more upside, so i'm looking for 180 before a correction. of course its possible the fed keeps pushing things up, but 2014 is about to be a 5 year rally with signs of slowing growth all over. i dont think the fed can hold off a recession that it looks like the doubling of obamacare premiums is likely to start.
yes, but even mr. slow and steady, bogel of the vanguard fund; sees two serious corrections within the next 10 years. hope you're factoring in some serious corrections, i believe we have at least one coming within two years.
that said, i'm with you on svxy over all. i wish i went all in a year ago when i found it and i'll definitely go all in after the next correction.
youre not too late, the fed still pumping and thats not going to stop for a long time; but two things:
1. stop watching it and/or stay off the boards. this moves 3-5% daily often. youre going to give yourself an ulcer watching it like you are.
2. although i said its going to go up for a while, the mkts are over extended, a pullback to 1750 before resuming the uptrend is possible. so if you cant handle that; its best to get out and wait for that to happen. otherwise, just strap in and see if it can get to 150 by april. imo, unless the fed announces immediate tapering, it should.
youre right, this is riding the feds coattails and at some point its going to end; but thats not now; nor in the next 3 and probably 6 months.
this thing is just following the rest of the mkt on the feds magic carpet ride. there's a bunch of #$%$ companies that tripled in 3 yrs too because of the fed.
we're all taking a risk staying in, as far as the mkt is now very, very overextended; but so are the people with netflix and testla stock; but just today; yellen said the printing will continue; so putting money in for a reversal of the upward trend is a bad idea.
why i didnt go all in after the debt ceiling debate last december, i dont know; but i didnt make that mistake this time. if it hits 130 before january; i'm buying my parents a vacation for christmas !
i'd either do catepillar or john deere. i'm already planning on socking some money in both after the next recession, but i think theyve topped out from 09; so i'm not riding them down.
2nd that, we're likely to have one or 2 drops within 10 yrs of at least 20%. i'm speculating svxy hits maybe 150 before the next recession hits (i'm expecting it to start in 2014, 2015 at the latest) which knocks svxy down quickly. although if you can wait, there's another chance to get a double on svxy after thats over; much easier than finding the next testla imo.
ok, youre nuts. within 5 yrs, there will be another mkt crash, even the fed has shown that the party cant go on forever; that'll take this down to 20 again; but as long as you get out when the trends change; you can go 20 to 100 or 20 to 200 again following that.
i'm hoping to see 200 before that happens and at the reate it goes up; i may just see that.
youre right. i have seen him do this too, he's been pulling this junk for a year since the last debt cieling last dec.well, in that time; svxy has nearly doubled.
i got out of svxy when this storm started up again but as soon as a deal was confirmed; i went all in. with the fed pushing it and no debt limit; svxy is most certainly to hit 120 this year and maybe 130 and i'll be spending new years at a ski resort while nomoredns will be spending it on his couch with a bottle of whisky yelling at the TV.
nomor, this will end sometime and vxx will go from $2 to $200 in a month but thats at least a year away; maybe two. watch the bond mkt, as long as its calm and the fed is printing; we're going up and is was pretty calm over the default drama. until that changes, these dramas are just buying opportunities for svxy.