i think your thread title is wrong, the svxy buy and hold may be dead for the next 3 months as Russia is flexing and China's financials look not too good and the mkt usually sells off in april and may anyways; but the trade is really alive.
i think the transition of crimea into russia's grip sunday goes off without a shot fired and the mkts shoot up. svxy could be up 5% easily monday, but that's a real speculative trade. personally, i'm waiting it out. maybe august before its time to buy and hold this again' but its time will come.
i'm with you, i'm sold on this. i mean BAC is up 300% since 2009 and facebook is uup a couple 100% since its offering; but this is still safer and will have a better return.
this year looks to be more volatile, so another 100% return isnt likely; but i'd bet its still beats the mkt barring a major correction and even then; maybe it still does.
i've actually made more on my double long s+p that svxy recently, but i got time. svxy is the best thing to own in an up mkt and we're still making new highs; until that changes; i'd bet on it going up 5% in a week over going down 5% in a week.
thats certainly possible. the consumer has been weakening for awhile and wages arent going up and obamacare looks to be making things harder for many already.
we'll see if its 2014 or 2015, but i imgine if you or i could pick recession starts or ends, we'd already be sitting by some poolside sipping something with an umbrella in it.
Could be. I'm thinking(guessing) that the usa economy limps along thru 2014 because the fed is still in; but with the fed out next year and obamacare all in; i'm all in for 2015 recession; but the consumer has been weakening for 3 months now; so it may be this year if the consumer gets beaten enough.
well, youre still a crazy.
i'm sticking with the much safer play, to wait around for the next recession; get in after it bottoms and ride the typical recovery of 5 years and retire a measley multi-millionaire and see if i can break into the local baptist church band as the only beer drinking muscian in a baptist band.
um, we made over 100% last yr in this; how'd you do shorting anything ? youre about as pathetic as the broncos who celebrated for one touchdown after already being down over 30 points.
but why dont you sit out when it crosses under indicators. like my number was 1767 sp which is sliced thru today; so unless it has a helluva rally; i'll wait until my trendlines turn back bullish. if this isnt the next recession and just a crroection, i'm thinking maybe i get this at 40; if its the next recession; maybe i get it in year at 10. if you are looking at this as a 30 year ride, why not wait and get it as low as possibl;e.
no, youre still going to have spots where you can make money, even if this is the beginning of the next recession. i'm betting svxy will make what would equal the pre split high before april as i dont think this is the next recession yet, but i'm still with bob; because of the way this is set up; 100k will be 1 mil in 10 yrs, although looking at economic numbers, it might be good to wait until 2015 before going with that; this is now the 6th longest bull rally on record.
i 2nd that. bob, you saw this go up 100%, if you stayed in for that; you shouldnt be in all cash now if you really believed in svxy; you should be out maybe 25% now and if we keep dropping; continue to get out 25% at a time.
now, i believe in svxy, but it cant beat mkt direction. if this correction keeps going and turns bearish, i'll get out and wait however long it takes to turn back bullish.
little dissapointed in the scared kitten display after you continual pumping.
2nd that, also china has to figure out how to handle their financial mess before the month is out, so it may be feb 1 before the smoke clears as china will worry everyone and most likely not do anything until the last minute; just the the usa does.
i'm with bob, after seeing it jump 100% last yr; i'm sold with it.
now, last yr the mkt was up 30%; and it looks like thats not going to happen this yr; but if we get a 10-15% correction this yr which is expected after such a runup last yr; i'd be up for throwing something like that in and letting it ride once the technical indicators show the correction is over.