ok, lets see.
i bought at 29 and am still holding. if i wouldve been scared enough to sell today; i might have GIVEN UP $2000 in profits; but i think we're still topping.
THATS how uvxy makes you money over time.
thats some amazing analysis on why the s+p will continue selling.
if it closes above 1540, the rally should continue; we havent broken any uptrend yet.
today was great, i mean its hard to make over 20% shorting in a day(even uvxy), but tomorrow all the vix etfs are going to give back 1/2 their gains minimum.
thats what i love about those guys, there's a new bunch that comes in two weeks on any volatility telling shorts just how bad its going to be when uvxy is down over 80% this year alone.
the ones that think this is about to go to 20 or 30 must be on drugs, theyre on a whole other planet.
agree with that, made some nice cash today; but i'm out.
i believe the FED has some news or speech due today and you know theyre going to say stuff to calm things down fast.
still got my short sitting at 29, long, long way before something like the past week makes me sell.
did you not see it drop with 20 cents of its all time low yesterday after riding up 30% the day before ?
you longs that think this is about to take off to 30 by friday are halarious. the only way this goes to 30 is if the mkt is falling down with no end in sight and we're still in an uptrend; so you can expect to lose all your gains today, tomorrow.
when it gets to 15, i may start considering selling.
yesterday after 3:30 pm was great here !
calls of opening over 9, 10 is next, and i did see someone say 30 by friday(that guy is probably out kicking the dog if he held today).
this thing is going to 3 and a reverse split this year.
yes, there will be a few days in the next few months to make serious money here going long but that was not by holding yesterday; it was a one off and you're going to have to be lucky to catch it all. i know a guy who has 20 years of shorting, he doesnt even look to go long; he loves to find good shorts and even he didnt see yesterday coming and turning into what it did.
yes, you would; but you would be down 25% before the turn around and this may just be a one off until the traditional sell off month of may.
go ahead and tell people to hold thru a 25% decline; but i wouldn't recommend it.
you just have to look at what gold did recently to know people arent going to take that kind of hit.
lets not forget, it was 7.75 on april 1st and over 11 on march 1st.
shorts and longs are different here. longs are day traders, short are investors because over time uvxy will go to zero. go ahead, hold uvxy to the end of the week and see if you dont give back everything you made today.
i wouldnt open a short right now, but uvxy has to get to 20 to scare me.
I second that, although my top is around 1615.
the good news is that uvxy may be down another 20% by then and svxy may be up another 10%.
dont know about that. if north korea does nothing wed morning after they said watch out for wed, could get a relief rally.
i wonder what the percentages of holding uvxy overnight are and coming ahead; i bet less than 5%.
then its time to buy uvxy and give it all back in 3 days !
seriously though, s+p ran right into resistance at 1573 by my chart today and bounced off. if it doesnt break thru tomorrow and hold; it may be time to buy sh and uvxy may be ready for a day trade again; mkt already broke its trendline from the november start of this rally.
youre an idiot.
the mkt has broken support and broke thru its trendline from the start of this rally in november, we have much further downside to go.
now, does that mean anyone holding uvxy 3 days in a row isnt going to lose everything they gained ? no, because uvxy,vxx and tvix are all heading to zero over time; but buying svxy here for anything more than a trade is a bad idea.
much like the mkt, svxy is topping. i know; i bought it the day after the fiscal cliff deal; but i'm not in it now.
"Canada shed 54,500 positions in March, more than wiping out the 50,700 jobs that were added in February, Statistics Canada said on Friday. Market operators had expected a modest gain of 8,500 jobs.
It was the biggest monthly jobs loss since February 2009, when the economy shed 69,300 positions. The March unemployment rate rose to 7.2 percent from 7.0 percent."
Now I still wouldnt go long uvxy overnight, but we may be about to start a pretty decent correction. next rally, i'm shedding svxy and buying SH and watching to see if uvxy has some good day trade coming.
a comment on zerohedge i thought appropriate here:
"Best scalp trade in history .... Just short UVXY at 3:00 PM every day. "
youre not going to beat the fed throwing a billion in with the volume as low as it is.
yes, its halrios to see the newbies show up.
"its going to go to 20 !"
and it gives everything back either the next day or in the same day.
i wouldn't short here as the headwinds are gaining and multiplying, but this may be under 5 before a real blow up comes and uvxy is actually a good play.
it is over bought, i see s+p 1485; but unless n. korea lets some missles off the chain; uvxy isnt going to 20; before we resume the uptrend courtesy of the FED.
volatility just isnt going to climb fast enough to kick up uvxy with the FED backstopping it. eurpoe has been tumbling for months and the US doesnt care as long as it gets its daily fix.
thanks, but i'm not a long except when it looks like a good risk, which is about 15 days a year for uvxy.
i'm just saying if the 2013 rally is over, a short is not likely to make 70% over the next 2 months like we did the last two months; i still wouldnt go long this more than 3 days in a row.