It is rare to have facts at your disposal when dealing in the stock market, you are a lucky man. Congratulations on all the Xmas wealth you are about to accumulate with your short position.
The stock has found a range pending some kind of positive or negative news. There has been nothing for so long. Continued absence of news will simply push the stock lower and lower.
Ivan was second and then third quarter and now fourth quarter in its estimation of time for Tamarack approval. An Ecuador agreement and partner was predicted for this past summer. A number of HTL deals were in the hopper with announcements forthcoming "any time." Three unrelated business activities, but all whiffs to date. I'm amazed that Ivan is hanging in there at eighty-something cents.
Let me get this right. If a person owns a significant position in a stock, that disqualifies that person from being critical of that company? To the contrary, I think such criticism is the most notable.
I continue to hold Ivan because I believe that the Tamarack position represents a floor in terms of liquidation value that is significantly higher than represented by the current share price. However, the longer I have to hold this position in order to realize that potential, the more disappointed I become. I look forward to seeing some ray of light for the company, but it is just not presenting itself. No one likes dead money.
Suncor has more knowledge of the value of IVAN's Tamarack and HTL technology than pretty much anyone. Other companies participating in Athabasca production have a pretty good clue. Given that knowledge and lots of cash on hand, why does Suncor choose to make no investment in IVAN at ,80 a share? Why do the others with such knowledge, incl. IVAN insiders, allow the stock to languish at this level?
I don't think the money matters because Ivan will not raise 1.3 billion to develop Tamarack IMO. The key is regulatory approval of Tamarack, which will give oil in the ground enough value that the company can sell itself off for $3 a share. Given the company's track record, I don't think approval of Tamarack is expected at all. No way the stock would be at .78 if it was.
Unfortunately, unhappily, disconcertingly, sadly, you have captured the essence of the company problem ... no progress on any of three fronts. Not even meaningful updates or explanations. There's really little more to say.
Obviously, you are about the only person in the world that believes that. That's way more than double the amount presented as potential value in the company's own report. Seriously, if the stock hits the high nineties for a few minutes on Monday morning, be sure to sell. That would be the fourth time it has approached a buck in the last couple months, and every time it has dipped right back down by 20%.
Don't make silly observations just to talk. Ecuadorians renege? What on earth are you talking about? IVAN itself announced that it was seeking concessions from Ecuador! In other words, IVAN wants Ecuador to give up more than called for in the original agreement. Whenever one party asks for concessions, the whole deal is in question. Luckily, EC is only about 5% of the value projection for the company in the August report.
Thiing to worry about in the SeekingAlpha article is that it was based on info from IVAN PR. They made administrative clarity and regulatory approval sound like locks ... I'm not so sure about that, given all the missed timelines.
Perhaps their presentations are improving ... or the case for heavy oil development is getting stronger. However, as somebody once said for the first time, "Convince a man against his will, he'll have the same opinion still."
Ivan presented at an oil conference in Moscow on the 19th. The presentation is available for review on the company website. Logically, this event was the basis for increased volume and share price appreciation last Thursday and Friday. Another presentation is scheduled in Latin America tomorrow, which may (or may not) provide an additional boost in the short term. Russia certainly holds the most extensive heavy oil reserves in the world.
I would recommend that you visit the company website and read its August presentation to shareholders and the estimation of the value of company assets. The TOTAL estimate is under four bucks a share and almost all of that is based on Tamarack reserves. Ecuador interests are assigned a value of .28 per share. HTL practically nothing.
Actual facts: Tamarck is not approved and market is betting it won't be ... see share value.
Past agreements with Ecuador have no meaning without IVAN getting the concessions it needs to secure financing. That has not happened and no one has any idea whether it will or will not happen. HTL deals are already made? Missed those press releases.
The stock is at historical rock bottom in its current range. That is not a result of anyone's confidence that great things are on the immediate horizon. I simply remind prospective shareholders of these things because I own a bunch of IVAN stock and I'm not happy about it. No one would be happier to see this stock pop than I would ... it just seems silly to pretend that something great is on the immediate horizon when the company has been a pretender for over decade.
Buyout suggestion are put forward without factual basis ... exactly the way suggestions that Tamarack will be approved, Ecuador will pan out, and HTL deals will be made are put forward. There are no facts, other than the one that IVAN will run out of money within a year if nothing is done to salvage any value.