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Arch Coal Inc. Message Board

legalbark 39 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 19, 2015 8:19 PM Member since: Jan 4, 2004
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  • Reply to

    options pointing to well under $7

    by pipster_1234 Aug 19, 2015 4:09 PM
    legalbark legalbark Aug 19, 2015 8:19 PM Flag

    I'd be interested in how you know this. I just completed a great profit in selling the OAS August 11 calls. Back in with a sale of 40 September 11 calls at $.75. This is great income unless you're correct and I'm going to lose all my option profit from a collapse of the underlying equity. How do you know this is going to happen? GLTA

  • legalbark by legalbark Aug 17, 2015 4:58 PM Flag

    I got a message that at 3:45 p.m. the NYSE was reporting an order imbalance in OAS of 66,000+ shares on the buy side. This may have no significance at all, but I've looked and can't see why in the world this got posted as an "Order Imbalance". Appreciate any helpful info. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    IRA Friendly

    by legalbark Aug 4, 2015 12:02 PM
    legalbark legalbark Aug 5, 2015 9:03 AM Flag

    Thank you. I'm familiar with CIM and appreciate the info on its suitability for a traditional IRA. GLTA

  • legalbark by legalbark Aug 4, 2015 12:02 PM Flag

    Now that LNCO is apparently going to suspend its dividend, does anyone have a suggestion for a high yield investment for an IRA. I understand you cannot carry a limited partnership interest in an IRA without negative tax implications. This would mean that most oil MLP's are not appropriate nor the REITS. Thanks.

  • Reply to

    LONG TERMPLAY

    by cooldoggie4 Aug 1, 2015 10:08 AM
    legalbark legalbark Aug 1, 2015 12:04 PM Flag

    You know you have a point. If you could get a long term private investor (or company) to give you the cash on reasonable terms (probably with an equity conversion feature like the Warren Buffet loans) they could use the money to keep buying in their debt at $.60 on the dollar It sure beats a Chapter 11 where the equity is usually completely wiped out. The $9.3 billion debt currently becomes a little over $5 billion. Make that adjustment to the balance sheet and you're looking at a very solid company depending on the terms of the new cash.. There's always the chance management is making matters seem worse than they are to buy in the outstanding debt cheap. I note they did not immediately suspend the distribution but simply said their "intent" was to recommend to the Board that the $1.25 annual distribution be suspended at the end of the third quarter.They gave themselves lots of wiggle room with that statement although its market effect was devasting but that may be the plan. A lot can happen between now and then and that "intent" may never become a reality. With this crew you never know for sure but they're announcing things that they know will put a depressed price on their debt and units. Great time for someone to buy in the debt, take an equity position, and get all the assets free of debt than you can control counting on the equity position to bring you out with a handsome profit. Just a thought. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Raymond James

    by legalbark Jul 30, 2015 10:17 AM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 30, 2015 10:58 AM Flag

    Thanks.

  • legalbark by legalbark Jul 30, 2015 10:17 AM Flag

    Does anyone know what Raymond James is saying now? They came out with a Strong Buy about a month ago then reduced it to Outperform pointing to many favorable catalyts they saw in the future. I wonder if this is one the favorable omens they were anticipating? GLTA

  • legalbark legalbark Jul 29, 2015 7:19 PM Flag

    While I don't think Mitt personally would want to send our young men and wormen into the disaster in the Mid East, his neo-con supporters would have insisted on it. They don't go themselves to die, They send the young mem and women. Mitt Romney would have been a pawn of the same group that started the ill-fated war in Iraq with no plan to exit. I think we've had anenough of this foolishness. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Make or break earnings report and conf call

    by mc6767 Jul 29, 2015 5:51 AM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 29, 2015 6:44 AM Flag

    Any chance it might be straight forward and based on solid operating performance. You suggest only two negative outcomes.Zachs is predicting a pretty good report given what's happening in the energy sector. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Distribution Announcement Time

    by legalbark Jul 20, 2015 7:00 AM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 21, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Well, there we go. $.35 distributio for the quarter, right on time and in the promised amount. So much for Jiggernitwick and all his useless comments. Hang in there. This is a good MLP run by management that has a lot of skin in the game.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Isn't it about time a new distribution is announced? I think its been 3 months from the last announcement. Hope they live up to their word on maintaining the $.35 per quarter. GLTA

  • Reply to

    Line Bonds

    by felix_urman Jul 16, 2015 7:49 PM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 16, 2015 9:42 PM Flag

    That's probably the most honest post I've seen in a while. Unfortunately I own a lot of common units. I guess if you're right they all go down the toliet. I'm not saying you're wrong, it's just not fair. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • legalbark by legalbark Jul 16, 2015 9:03 PM Flag

    Donald Trump has recently blasted a trumpet call to block Miexican immigrants. We see tonight that legally immigrated Islamists are the biggest threat. The current killer of Marines is an immigrant Kuwaiti who's parents are from Kuwait and somehere else in the Arabian world. Time to be more aware of Islamics than Mexicans. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • legalbark by legalbark Jul 16, 2015 3:14 PM Flag

    I'm disappointed with Raymond James. A month ago they put at Stong Buy on LINE. Since then the Goldman Sach Sell rating seems to have prevailed. Where are all the loyal Reymond James intitutional and retail clients who should be buying this equity but apparently are all either selling or standing on the sidelines. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Question for the Board

    by widjj Jul 13, 2015 2:02 PM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 16, 2015 7:48 AM Flag

    I sure hope not. I've got quite a few shares and sell covered calls against them to increase the income. LINE has been very weak the last month but so have most of its peers. Just take VNR, as an example, a month ago it was $15. Now it's close to $13. That's $2 a share- about the same as LINE in the same time frame. I just think many big investors just don't want to be in these energy MLPs any longer. Two days ago we had a 7 million share day pounding LINE down. These were not small retail investors and despite his own generated publicity I don't think Jim Cramer had anything to do with it.. I think we're close to the bottom and today will be a bounce back up to $8. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • legalbark legalbark Jul 14, 2015 6:58 AM Flag

    Iran also need to show compliance with the agreement before the oil sanctions are lifted. The first report on compliiance isn't until December, 2015 and given all the delays in the negotiations, I doubt if the report target date will be met. We'll just have to see what the commodity future traders do with all this. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Conference Call

    by legalbark Jul 7, 2015 12:05 PM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 13, 2015 5:58 PM Flag

    Well, Gary Shilling has to say something sensational or he won't get any media coverage. A lot like Donald Trump. Say something publicly that's really outlandiish and the media will have you on the front page. They need controversial statements to make stories to sell product. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    just your average 20 % interday move

    by blueiz1020 Jul 8, 2015 4:15 PM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 9, 2015 3:39 PM Flag

    I bot at $8.12 and sold today at $10. Another 20% swing in a couple of days. If your stomach doesn't give out, this is a fantastic trading stock. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • legalbark by legalbark Jul 7, 2015 12:05 PM Flag

    If I heard the remarks correctly, management is confident they have secured the current distribution rate for 2015 and 2016. With all the concerns about class action lawsuits, I doubt they would have said this unless they had some pretty solid reasons. If they keep the distribution steady in 2015 and 2016, this is a sweet investment. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Nice move LGCY but divy cut still coming

    by lbrecken Jul 6, 2015 4:28 PM
    legalbark legalbark Jul 6, 2015 5:39 PM Flag

    I'm not sure I agree with you. The management has a lot of skin in the game. They think both transactions are positive to FCF which means cash to pay distributions. I will be listening carefully to tomorrow's conference call.My only concern is that they used their Revolver to finance the purchase. Why not their new joint venture partner if it's such an accretive deal? At some point the Revolver will have to be paid down and we'll see another equity raise. It's all part of the MLP picture. GLTA

    Sentiment: Buy

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