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lego3636 9 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 24, 2015 4:33 AM Member since: Sep 11, 2012
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  • look, baidu definitely gets caught up in these price swings, but i really just see lack of focus lately. they swap qunar for ctrip. they want to set up a bank with citic. today they want to sell insurance with allianz. then there's maps etc, online payments, ai etc. they seem to be trying to pull a google, but they are all over the place. Google didn't open a bank or sell insurance to the public. little things that complement your core is one thing. big ventures that are businesses on their own looks either like a confused tech company, or an investment/holding firm that doesn't deserve a tech sized multiple. i really can't say exactly how the stock goes the next few weeks, but these plans we're seeing lately seem like they're reaching. they shouldn't need all that extra distraction of large side businesses. just imho.

  • i'm short so take this with a grain of salt, but i find it curious first of all that Baidu is getting its feet wet in so many different areas. Citic's president was just arrested recently for fraud so i'd be concerned about Baidu working with them. the extent of their branching out suggests that they don't see reason to invest in search and ads like Google. there should be plenty of room to grow in search without investing so heavily in other areas. any investment in a new area is a bet. the safest bet is always with what's worked to date.

  • i was thinking, "well maybe baidu will buy TomTom" but not sure how likely that is since they were already joining up with Uber to make a bid on Nokia's Here unit. Here went for 3 billion. TomTom is already $2.5 billion and probably wouldn't sell for less than 3 billion either. So it's probably worth more than Here. While maybe Baidu might grab TomTom after having snagged this big deal, it seems for now Baidu has lost out on some business.

  • Reply to

    whoever really is buying here is crazy

    by lego3636 Nov 9, 2015 1:28 AM
    lego3636 lego3636 Nov 10, 2015 2:35 AM Flag

    well, i'm short for now. duh. not sure how long i'll stick around, but i'm looking for it to go somewhat lower.

  • lego3636 lego3636 Nov 9, 2015 5:39 AM Flag

    price targets are meant for 12 months out. Baidu is up 50%+ in one month on nothing. Yes it was oversold, but now it's way overbought. It gets way too overextended in both directions.

  • Reply to

    whoever really is buying here is crazy

    by lego3636 Nov 9, 2015 1:28 AM
    lego3636 lego3636 Nov 9, 2015 5:35 AM Flag

    1) China
    2) Europe
    3) Lackluster earnings. Q3 was better than expected but that's not saying much

    China is not cured. If it was ailing 3 months ago, it is ailing now. Europe/Greece may be ok for now, but it's not all back to normal. Earnings growth is still on the decline. We already know China is putting massive support behind the market. Probably hiding info as well. The big companies could also be hiding info to help stem the downturn. Very unlikely that all is well in one month. It can too easily fall like a house of cards. 50%+ in one month is just too fast.

  • baidu just moved from 130 to 200 (over 50%) with pretty little reason. it didn't crush earnings. they were ok. a relief for some. the qunar/ctrip maybe added a little optimism. but basically at this point, it's just people psyched that China isn't dead. 50%+ though is way overextended. it could have a big gap down on any bad news. anything - europe, china, puerto rico, global, interest rates... sure, people could continue to speculate for a bit, but these are dangerous waters. Baidu is up far more than others with little reason.

  • Reply to

    just imo, this rally is a bit overdone.

    by lego3636 Oct 30, 2015 4:07 PM
    lego3636 lego3636 Nov 1, 2015 11:15 AM Flag

    well, i was long and got a small pop out of it in the $137-140 area, but wouldn't have internet access that following Monday or Tuesday so i decided to take the gains early that friday. i take positions too large to just let them sit without monitoring. it ended up moving up into the $150s at which point i took myself out of the game. at that point, after a big pop, anything could happen, the markets continued to recover and Baidu followed. but whereas at $150 i was unwilling to get back in and take a position, at near $190, i'm pretty confident that this is overdone. instead of taking further risks on a stock that had already made a nice move, i continued to trade carefully and did pretty well the past few weeks.

    Baidu was getting sold hard just like Twitter. imo, a stock cannot recover from that so easily. Twitter is already getting pummeled back down. especially if the market does not recover, a short favorite will get shorted again. I understand Baidu is a bit manic-depressive of a stock. it gets overextended in both directions. but i'd say probably 65% probability Baidu [and the overall market] fall in the coming week or two.

  • i almost was long this whole rally, but things didn't quite work out. still as much as the sell-off was excessive and fierce, this rally is equally overdone. the markets are going to lose their steam, at least for a bit, and the wind will be taken from Baidu's sail. just like Twitter. i don't necessarily think it'll be brutal like the last few months, but i definitely think this rally is too artificial as the concerns leading to the selloff didn't just disappear. i'm just a trader. i don't call the long-term shots. but i'd be surprised if it doesn't give back 3-5% next week. at least in the next 2 weeks. people are trading today as if it's the best stock out there. too much excitement over nothing.

7.91-0.04(-0.50%)Nov 25 4:00 PMEST