the only silly thing here is that PayPal is now a pretty good acquisition target which kind of defeats the purpose of the whole split in the first place. sure, it'll fetch a higher value if bought out but the argument that it'll be able to grow faster on its own may be a moot point if it just ends up with another company.
but maybe a company like Google or Mastercard will have more money to invest in PayPal's growth than eBay which was stuck trying to light a new fire under its auction business.
hard to say how the markets will react next week. but i think paypal is doing reasonably well considering the rout in the markets this week. it was pretty strong today even though it gave up its early gains. i think with a good up day, we'll see some nice gains in paypal.
any buyer knows that without a bid, the stock will continue to fall. that's why the company is seeking a buyer. and so we're talking about a stock valued by the market at $37 which will continue to fall. leaked talks have pushed the stock to $50 while the value of the company continues to decline. so every day that goes by without a buyer, the stock should conceivably be losing value. so unless there's a bidding war on a declining asset, i don't see the selling price to be near the high end. also realize that Yelp brings a LOT of baggage with it in terms of negative press. there's a lot of promise if certain policies are changed and partnerships formed. but as is, it's kinda an unfinished product - a platform without direction.
so basically, i see the stock price as faltering over the coming days toward the lower $40s and IF a buyer comes through it might be in the upper 40s to low 50s. part of it has to do with the market overall as well which is a bit overextended. Yelp will take a breather along with the market this week. It's reached near its top at this point following a market up 270pts. When the market falls, Yelp will fall. And every day that goes by without a buyer, the price will decrease. The buyers know this. So unless they're afraid someone else will bite first, they will wait it out. Yelp will want to expedite things to get a higher bid. But if a buyer realizes they're trying to speed things up, they'll just wait it out. We can probably expect more leaked stories in the coming weeks in an attempt to scare buyers to move faster. But leaks point to one thing only and that is weak interest.