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BOK Financial Corporation Message Board

lemonyelow1 7 posts  |  Last Activity: May 2, 2014 7:26 AM Member since: Dec 27, 2002
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  • Reply to

    We are getting screwed!

    by fireman5436 Apr 29, 2014 6:45 PM
    lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 May 2, 2014 7:26 AM Flag

    Hmm. There's a good article in "Alpha" that basically says that the offer was "a little low," and then goes on to make what I think is a reasoning error - it says, "Well, you get $13 in cash 'for sure,' and SBSI is a much better 'operator,' so you might wind up with nice capital gains if your patient." (I'm thinking that what that means is that SBSI is screwing OABC's shareholders, but maybe if you "go along with them," you'll "be made whole."

    OTOH, it sure seems like OABC is doing all sorts of stuff wrong for several years now. A Texas bank should not have an ROAA around 0.25 - not 5 years after all that tumult. But I'm thinking that what everyone has seen at least once re residential real estate - well, it's true here in NYC - that a low-ball "offering price" winds up generating a kind of bidding war. I mean OABC may have had Sandler advising them. What were the inv. bankers thinking? ... Maybe, their game is - No obvious purchaser was willing to come up with anything close to $30, ... but maybe one of them will re-think things now that it's "going, going, ..."

    Seems plausible, because one sees plenty of takeover battles where an improved offer is just 5 or 10% above what proves to be the runner-up, ... and with SBSI's shares bleeding badly, a cash or cash/stock deal at $27 or so (from ?) sure makes sense to me - and not just on a wishful thinking basis. One cannot believe that SBSI is looking for a $10 MM breakup fee - so maybe, they improve their offer and we do get close to $30.

    ... To be continued (I HOPE) (the last chapter in the OABC book)

  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Mar 21, 2014 9:18 AM Flag

    I'm with you ... and it is why I took a position, ... but it certainly occurs to me that some of this is "baked in," and the sell-off has to do with "the crowd" guessing less optimistically than you or I.

    That is, intuitively - and that's good enough for me in this instance - one can't help but think that if KING doubled and held onto that for even a few days, GLUU and ZNGA would hit new highs - pick a number 6, 6.50, 7 - but that means that the overall "consensus" is less rosy. Maybe, the stocks got to 5.50-5.80 when that optimistic KING scenario was thought to be more likely - but since it was so far off and there was so much uncertainty, they stopped well short of those levels.

    Where should (?) - yes, crazy word that - these guys trade if the underwriters either do a poor job positioning the shares ... or potential buyers start getting risk-averse or ...? ... So what if the IPO is only "moderately" frothy - let's say that a week beyond Day zero, KING is up 20%. Are GLUU and ZNGA at levels consistent with that - or is there more downside?

    Obviously, there's more to this "game" than this event, but this week and next, maybe not so much!

    As for SA - no insult meant, but for all but people on this board, that's mostly a joke. Yes, there are some insightful writers ... and they may echo "professional analysts" (or, very rarely, put them to shame), but you only have to look at a price chart for 5 years to know that buying GLUU shares is a lot like buying lottery tickets, whatever one says to the contrary.

  • I guess journalism is a lot like fashion - whether its skirt length or something more complicated, there's a heck of a lot of ME-TOO-ism in both sectors. Yes, the first person who wrote in connection with the imminent King IPO - "Remember Zynga?" has a very good point to make..... But the next 5 iterations haven't really added a whole hell of a lot. EXCEPT that they are like GM's recent press - not fun reading if you're a shareholder.

    And with a big run-up and the usual jitters that maybe King's IPO will smell like Facebook's (AT THE TIME), I'm sure lots of profits have been taken.

    But think about it. Investors are always advised - wisely - that "past performance is not a ..." ... Now, we're in bizarro-land, where the fact that ZNGA either was overpriced when it went public or made very poor use of the funds it raised at the time or both ... are spanking it's 2014 shares. Makes no sense.

    Well, a little - if you focus on how tough it is to come up with a good NEW idea, even if you had a wonderful run with some previous idea, you do what today's MF article does - ask how much is "baked in" and whether a nickel or dime non-GAAP earnings number justifies a $5 stock price.

    But, I'm betting - literally - that those valid questions are NOT why ZNGA went from $5.80 or so to $5.15 today! Rather, a good deal of that move is accounted for by millions of shares being sold as their owners look in the rear-view mirror as they read this or that "commentary." They may be right "for the wrong reason," but given that their "reason" is ever so WRONG - i.e., wondering if it should have been priced at $13 for its IPO - it seems reasonably "smart" to bet the other way. If you guys get shares at $4.80, be sure to tell me what a p*tz I am.

  • lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Mar 19, 2014 10:53 AM Flag

    One wishes that the bear/short posts were motivated by something other than per word payments - $1 per?

    To recycle 6-month old news as if it's current is your usual trickery/fakery.... Now for a substantive rebuttal -
    (1) Wake up - the U.S. is not the only game in town, probably not the biggest either. I'm beginning to think that when one of the 2 Chinese companies has its IPO, they'll make like FB with its recent purchase and look for something in the $5-30 Billion ballpark - hmm, isn't that ZNGA's "vicinity?"
    (2) It's great to get in on the ground floor, but don't you think that Nevada is going to be just a little crowded, hence over-priced on day 1?! ... ZNGA's working the kinks out in a venue big enough and similar enough to NJ and 40 other U.S. States to make them an ideal partner for someone who knows how to buy politicians and licenses and "just" needs a platform.
    (3) What the other guy said - they're keeping current and competitive in the high-level minor leagues - remembering that there really IS NO major league option at present. When somebody "calls them up" (from those minor leagues), you better believe that they will be - unlike baseball - a free agent, ... and they will have - both insiders and us - one hell of a payday.

    I could be wrong, but Mattrick is your 2014 techie. Works hard, plays hard, is "in it" for the fun and the money. Not for him sticking at MSFT and hoping to elbow his way one or 2 notches up their corporate ladder. I figure that his exit strategy coincides with moves made to date - "If/when ZNGA stops tripping over its shoelaces, somebody is going to make the same decision FB has with its couple of serious acquisitions - makes more sense to buy it than start from scratch, especially since it's like an iceberg - most of its value is not visible to the naked eye!" That is, a $10-15 share buyout gives guys like Mattrick almost the kind of money that the insiders netted when Ebay bought Paypal. I'm happy at that prospect!

  • Reply to

    Sustainability At Last

    by jemeisel Mar 18, 2014 10:25 AM
    lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Mar 19, 2014 8:44 AM Flag

    Excellent analysis IMHO - yes, it captures my thinking ... although there's also a nervous part of me that says that if you're right - and we have an "excessive" sugar high - i.e., let's just wax optimistic & imagine GLUU at $7, that might be a really good time to take ALL our chips off the table, ... at least for a bit.

    Surely, you're smart enough to know the phrase "get ahead of itself." When you have to look out 24 months in a field where 3 months out has a best case and worst case scenario that look like "good" vs. "evil," too much optimism borders on crazy. Heck, it's only been a year or 2 since it seemed like smartphones would have only winners and colossal winners. I don't see much similarity between BBRY and either ZNGA or GLUU, but the 2 situations both have a hefty quantum of "musical chairs" built in, ... and the music could stop, slow down, seem to stop a lot sooner than one "expects."

    Meanwhile, it's funny how some of the talking heads (minor league ones, some, but MarketWatch's Poletti, too) are talking down the King IPO. I think that this time Cramer has it right. If you could participate or buy in close to the offering price in the aftermarket, I think you'd have the day of your life. Now, let's hope that I'm right about that AND that the "halo effect" hasn't already happened! I don't think so - it's easier to view GLUU's pop to date as altogether justified by stuff that preceded the lip-smacking "King 'valued' at $7.6 B," ... but let's all remember that we may not be "the smartest guys in the room."

  • lemonyelow1 by lemonyelow1 Mar 18, 2014 10:39 AM Flag

    Most of the time, I subscribe to the notion that "everyone is entitled to their opinion" or "people can look at the same whatever thing and react very differently," but an article about Zynga that doesn't mention gambling - AT ALL - is like talking about Mariano Rivera and not mentioning his "cutter." (or Rafa's topspin.)

    Soros and his funds have long bought the occasional "drug stock," presumably because they ran a gazillion numbers and found if you mostly buy the "better specs" in that sphere, the occasional 5-bagger more than makes up for no doubt the majority doing nothing special price-wise.

    So, when he/they bought Zynga recently, you KNOW their outlook is the same as mine -

    What governor (Cuomo in NY is fairly typical) would have a tough time choosing between revenue from gambling or revenue from taxes? (They SHOULD find this a tougher choice than they do, but that's another matter.) They'll opt for gambling EVERY TIME. Every legislator who simply ruminates "How do we separate our citizens from $ without their blaming us?" knows that lottery tickets are chump change as compared to serious gambling $, be it sports or cards.

    And there you have it. Will Zynga be the Facebook of online gambling? Will it gain traction this year or next or ?? ... I hope no one is nuts enough to say, "Definitely!" to either or those or a handful of similar questions.

    But - need I say it - stocks are like that! - you like a pony going off at 5-to-1 when you think he really has a 1-in-3 chance of winning. The analogy is imperfect, but Zynga at $5.3 could easily double or triple JUST ON improved PROSPECTS of being a major player in this arena, ... and I have little doubt that those prospects exist and will be publicized sooner rather than later! Plus, Zynga now IS focusing on metrics, monetization, etc. - again, not enough writers point out that a clown-CEO yielded to a capable one a year or so back. That's why the IPO keeps getting tagged "Stinker." Ancient history at this point!

  • Reply to

    Thoughts going forward?

    by gropingjosh Mar 17, 2014 9:45 AM
    lemonyelow1 lemonyelow1 Mar 17, 2014 11:16 AM Flag

    Let's leave "Hamlet"-type posts to Will and people who do more than underscore the fact that there really is no certainty in stocks - least of all, ones like GLUU or ZNGA..... FWIW, I trimmed a lot on Friday - because one hears that "the big boys" hate to be too exposed over a weekend, only to read on Saturday, I think, That Warren said "DO NOT SELL based on one's very amateurish political guesswork."

    Well, I got lucky in terms of being able to re-establish positions at or below where I sold on Friday.

    But your lead-off is the one thing worth focusing on. King/CandyC will either goose a stock like GLUU quite a bit for all the obvious reasons..... Or it's a case of "sell on the news," i.e., GLUU is where it is now because of its resemblance to King..... It's impossible to filter out the element of wishful thinking, but I *do* go with the optimistic case. Remember - around here, it could be a novelty to half the readers - a great stock market thinker once pointed out that this is not a beauty contest where you gain anything whatsoever by picking who's the prettiest. Money is to be made HERE by guessing who the other viewers are likely to think is the prettiest gal up there..... On that basis, I think there are still people (including hedgies and fund managers) who will hear the drumbeat of $8 B valuation for King ... and/or up 50% the first day it trades ... and think (mostly logically), "Surely, there are 'denim jeans' that look enough like 'KING' but can be had for one fifth the price when you iron things out!"

    And GLUU goes to $7.50 ... Yup, the furthest thing from a sure thing ... and if it should somehow play out as described above, who among us will be lucky enough (forget "smart") to either take that jump and spend some, reposition some ... or leave it "on the table" for the move to $10 or $12?!

    Last thing - I read about Amazon and Google (surely, at least ONE of them will) going for a set-top box this year - probably 1st half.... GLUU would benefit mucho!

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