fwiw - that cannot be with 80% of the shares in inst'l hands, some of them savvy.
But I think their dependence on Liberty is not loved at this moment ... and I continue to think that odds are that Roamio will not be a big hit.... Rather, when it's heavily discounted or worse, they will TAKE A HIT on it.
I've said it before, the similarities to Blackberry - invented a monster category (well, less monster in TIVO's case) ... and then couldn't/didn't measure up to the competition [yes, it's more complex than that, but even I recognize that 5 minutes is a lot to spend for 5 or 10 (likely) intelligent readers] - are scary. When people talk about its having $11/sh value "in the bank," they aren't doing what analysts are supposed to do - think about the future. Of all the many not-so-bright things said on last nite's call, one came from what seems like Tom's "brainy #2 guy" (I believe he's way brighter than Tom, btw) when he said that they continue to think hard about what to do with capital. When he said we'll probably do a mix of an acquisition, buybacks ... and something else, I think one had to conclude that they don't really have a plan - and they SHOULD.... Somebody put it really well online - TIVO has a couple of years (MAX) to re-invent itself or do a deal. Compare that to a GOOD stock ... or even a spec like Zynga that MIGHT catch a significant updraft via product releases. (Somebody with better info than I have must know that Roamio is just a tad better - no more - than d.o.a.)
Of course, just as BBRY doubled from 7.5 to 15 roughly, when people thought they could do a deal, it's certainly possible that somebody will "poop on" all the longs who really don't have much of a reason to own this stock except the hope of that. More likely, it's just the usual, I shoulda sold at $14, so now I'll wait (HOW LONG?) for it to get back there.
Not what you'd call clear thinking, IMO.
I'm looking at his/her 11/6 post: "$12.59 coming mark this post."
I honest to goodness just saw precisely that print at 9:43 A.M. ... probably not as low as it will get today or Friday, IMHO, although where/when it gets to "oversold" is another multi-million dollar question.
Guess all those folks "too nervous to hold into earnings" at $13.05 and similar prices had an equally good sense of what the market would make of TIVO's "bang bang" quarter.
Whenever you have a conf. call where for a half hour, the CEO attempts to sell mostly analysts with Buy recs on his company, you know something's rotten.
It DOES look to me like Roamio is "not gaining traction," presumably because some combo of crazy high prices (incl. subscription) and not really being able to deliver on "anything, any time, anywhere" (because the studios & cable operators stand in the way), ... and Wall Street hates the idea of a write-down. As someone put it well, TIVO "just" has a few years to re-invent itself.
This first effort may be proving inauspicious - just looking at the numbers, as one MUST.
Then add the uncertainty about Liberty/Virgin in connection with Intel's soon-to-be orphan platform ... and you have a company predicting (with all the safeguards the SEC affords them) that they'll have EBITDA of $100 MM next year ... only maybe they won't.
I followed BBRY all the way down the "crapper" - there's almost no other word for it - and it's amazing how even a humongous pile of cash gets eaten up, esp. since "stock based compensation" and buybacks are the way of the world these days.
I was among those who scoffed (to myself) at someone's post here that $12.59 was in his view. I still think his ear or rear end was talking at the time, but with the benefit of today's report, he actually looks both prescient and reasonable. I really do think we'll see $12.50 tomorrow when the gazillion shares funds own TRULY start being shopped. The MM's have proven over the past month or so that they're good for a few thousand shares in "inventory." What, no real buying back this past quarter. They'll probably be tempted to step in tomorrow, but probably only after real damage has been done. Yes, I have a small short position at this moment.
Boy. 3 more wrong-headed comments one could never see. Check the institutional ownership - "the market" has at least a comfortable little spot for TIVO. No, it's no Apple, any which way, but whether it's growth funds, hedge funds or value funds, TIVO is not being overlooked.
$11 - Well, it sure could happen, even as soon as Tuesday if it was a Blackberry-type quarter - pretty much any of the last 10 or so.... But that seems unlikely.
TIVO may have left it a little late, but it has the horses, ... and convergence (more than HBO and the nets, say - add in Netflix & Hulu, for openers) is surely working in its favor.
$50? - I'll be kind and assume some jokiness in the post.
Now, does Cramer's "blessing" Friday night presage a good or terrible quarter. Mostly, I believe he has integrity, but he certainly has been USED on occasion. Classic glass half-full, glass half-empty. I saw that one monster day to a record high as evidence that either a deal was afoot or the quarter will "present well," but there's been at least 2 weeks since then to scare the wits out of someone who'd rather not hold this "under water" for a year or 2. Maybe, fundies who just don't want any unpleasant surprises in the last 6 weeks of the year, messing up their bonus packages, booked what was probably some profits and are willing to leave something on the table.... Or maybe, they're wired and left only the likes of me and some other longs "on the table." There are a few bashers over at Investor Vlg - I guess TIVO has gotten more than a few people severely scalded over the years. The current "big" strikes me as way too much of a stock salesman - his "well, we're profitable now ... and probably will be as far as I can see" was certainly not "pull your punches." 3 months later, he damn well better deliver. Not, obviously, so I can celebrate T'giving with a little more joy & $ - but because lawsuits and ignominy and a few years in stock market Siberia and likely his job all ride on good news Tues.
let me assume that you've been on boards before, but let me emphasize that my point is that you seldom find anybody who lacks either an agenda or a strong set of beliefs on these.
Yes, this Board probably has or had a couple of trash-talkers, who posted along the lines of "see you in single digits." ... But the bulls - to my way of thinking - are just about equally in love with the company and can see no wrong. One of them posted that he would "never" sell when the P/E (let's skip the footnotes on that one) was less than 10, ... but my guess is that if it got to 15 or 25 or 35 - hopefully, because they "struck oil," he/she/they would find a justification to say that it was still undervalued.
My point is that even if the short version of the story is accurate - leaving aside whether the analyst in question was crooked as a stick or not - today's gain probably takes back just the last few days of sell-off. That's several days out of a month or 2 or 3.
The next issue is whether the company's leadership - and I'm on record as saying they've failed to impress ... and not just me - was doing the traditional "talk down" expectations, so you can maybe beat by quite a bit ... or whether they (as they should) are closer to the situation than anybody and were happier seeing the stock "walked down" than to have a down 20% day, together with lawsuits if/when a horror show quarter gets reported.
I go back far enuf with OVTI to know that - whether it's true of bigger, better companies in its space or not - they have had quarters where "quality control" and "new equipment" (with vendors definitely not under their thumb) knocked the stuffing out of the results that might have been.
SO, if you take an optimistic view - I *am* long in this stock as of now - you say that today's action is the beginning of a nice long run, especially since there probably is a monster short position to goose things on the way up.... Or - efficient market ? - now the stock is fairly valued - at 14.4
Methinks this is could be the "poster child" for these message boards, i.e., leaving aside how someone "knew" last week - tough ethically and legally - I was shocked to get a $13.83 print this A.M., just given what I think WILL be a good xmas for iPads and iPhones, ... but that's the print I got.
Heaven knows, when a stock has been hammered like OVTI, some "easy money" may prove to be easy come, easy go, ... but it's a lot nicer to start off ahead than behind, as I'm sure we can all agree.
LOL - and again, thanks, those of you who posted with intelligence, foresight, etc.
That one suffers from the usual - "but once X [imagine Comcast in this sentence] buys it, dozens of logical customers either can't or won't belly up to TIVO's bar" - that is, one company's "competitive edge" all but precludes the kind of sales that TIVO is currently making and going after ... certainly in the U.S.
Of course, that doesn't altogether preclude it, if one of the small number of cable giants decides that buy-not-build makes sense, but think about it - If TIVO gets to $15 or $20 in the absence of anything more than some rumors, wouldn't the premium be much larger for a company that says, "WOW - this would let us get into a whole new market, ... and we can tie TIVO in to this or that that we already have"
as opposed to
a company that says, "Well, they probably could have grown sales 15% per year for the next 5 years, but with us buying it, it'd probably be more like 5%/year growth."
I think the O/P is saying - ineptly - that there's a shark in the water. My take is that this or that inst. or hedge f. (obviously, probably multiple ones) is loading up either in anticipation of same or because they share my perception that if you wish you made something on NFLX (or quite a bit more on it), Mr. Market has given you a kind of 2nd chance.
Heck, the tablet market is crowded.... The set-top box market is the opposite. Apple paved the way in this regard. It's like that car commercial ("hardware OR software" - why not "hardware AND software?")
Google bought MOT when there were some carping that Samsung would have to bearhug Blackberry and make GOOG sorry. MSFT brought out Surface when they had to figure that HP and Dell would not be pleased. (On the latter, watch how people ascribe this "whiff" to "poor execution.")
Given TIVO's VERY sweet "niche," FB, AMZN, etc. don't have to strain to see enormous "synergy" opportunities.
The problem is - because it's not at all complex - "the Street" has little or no respect for the man at the helm. It certainly goes beyond poor ("abysmal" is probably a charitable characterization) communication skills. His honesty and/or grasp of reality are obviously not universally acknowledged. Think about people in your lives that you've decided are simply "not worth it." NUAN and I'm sure dozens of others pay a similar penalty.
You can rail about how unfair it is that the shareholders and employees suffer because of who's running the show, but there it is. Sometimes, you get a Steve Jobs, whose genius outweighs personal failings, but much more often the smart money is right when they seek opportunities elsewhere.
... for someone who bought a couple of days after $14.20 on mammoth volume. I used to "play Blackberry" - in the times when shorting almost always was the right call ... and, of course, there were occasional rallies on what must have been a mix of manipulation and wishful thinking - things like reports that MSFT was "kicking the tires." ... For whatever reason, any rumors that Netflix might be "in discussions" with TIVO (and let me emphasize - I haven't heard such rumors and would be skeptical if I did, just because ANY single merger is at least 10-to-1 against in the absence of insider info) didn't make the obvious "news places" that we can call the "usual suspects."
Let me re-phrase and "speculate" - Maybe, folks were whispering last Thursday that such an event was possible. Even then, I have trouble seeing how a couple of days gains on largish volume could be "walked back down" over the next 5 days - right to this point near 11 AM on Thursday, one week later.
But, of course, I'm just hoping that I got in a few days earlier. This piece:
easy to find via Google with search words like Fried Tullo TIVO MPVD -
makes an awfully compelling "bull case." Just a "taste," but the "heart of the artichoke!":
We wish we were smart enough to build a model with fine detail b ut we think the value is so compelling with TIVO that’s a discussion that needs to be tabled until about $20 per share.
To be clear, we think TIVO at $13 is an acquisition target given the strategic value re presented by TIVOs patents, TIVO's strong balance sheet and nose in the tent of MVPD's that have 78 million subs in aggregate, suggests to us that the premium could be large or investors are better served by no deal.
The analyst reiterated an Overweight rating and price target of $23.00.
Yes, it's the kind of "rave" that reminds me of the late 90's, but I'm a believer at this point
I wasn't for a second comparing People's with NHTB as investments. It's just that P strikes me as a logical acquiror (in the past TD seemed plausible, too), because to unlock the value in a company like NHTB probably will take it's being "taken out."
Look back 3-5 years and see how its value and merit (WHICH I AGREE with you is very obvious) has gotten no recognition. Maybe, it's too thin - I still see times when there's a dollar spread in the middle of the day.
No, it isn't the low growth thing. Maybe, there are 500 publicly traded banks bigger than NHTB and I'd guess that half either were near death in recent memory or are also in areas where growth is not a factor.
And - on a more positive note - don't forget that several of the bank stop specialist institutional players have some in their portfolio. It's not totally off the radar.
Yes, I agree that it "should" revert to the mean, but if it's 3-5 years hence, there might be better spots for one's money. Yes, I like the dividend, so that's (in part) why I own it.
Very lastly, if the perception (and analysts DO touch base, I'm convinced) of the man (did it change in the last few years?) who's running the little show called NHTB is that he wants to grow his bank and not take a 15% premium that he perceives as no way getting him and the other shareholders close to fair value, THAT could be the reason it has next to no "coverage." ... I'm with you in the final analysis - this looks like classic "food chain" - you go from being a very small fish in a very small pond to a formidable fish in roughly the same pond ... and some bigger bank thinks in terms of "accretion" and "market share."
I just hope they don't stub their toe getting bigger - that happens fairly often, esp. when the FDIC isn't immunizing you against most of the nasty surprises possible.
Hi - I (still) like this stock, but remember that it's in a slow growth neighborhood and buying a little more scale and scope probably won't move the needle much. But by chance I was in a People's Bank (supermarket) branch ... and if you look at their "footprint," NHTB looks like a deer in the headlights. Of course, it could take years and who knows what premium might eventuate, but I'd be surprised if NHTB outperformed its peer group in the absence of merger possibilities ... or the reality of same.
Another board with a "so's your momma" vibe, but I'll weigh in with something more thoughtful. Don't over-think this one - it's Blackberry redux - i.e., a founder who has it in his head that he deserves 10 or 20 mill a year has been raping every other shareholder for years. Siri was and is a kind of bad joke, and there's no real moat around the product/company - i.e., look for a fistful of better mousetraps in the months and years ahead.
Icahn has a mixed record re tech ... and for every Apple with an amazing "second act," there are a dozen who stubbed their toe, got gangrene and died. This is a company that's "aged" far more poorly than Microsoft, and I'll guess that Icahn's bench is thinner than thin, so look for his "boy" to be ignored until Carl starts jumping on the table. But as was the case with Blackberry, that was nothing more than noise, since the company had been hollowed out years ago. Again - same situation here - the people who said Blackberry was another Palm were right, ... and this one is yet another "has been." ... Much better to go with the "wannabes," because tech stocks whose best years are 5 or more years back are like week-old fish in the fridge - meriting being tossed.
I was a BRCM shareholder 'til recently - not this week, I should add. But I think everyone wonders whether "mobile" has "jumped the shark," obviously not forever but the Street has a hard time looking out more than a year, and in current times, I'm almost sympathetic. (You know when the next downturn - perhaps a very ugly one - will move to center stage?)
So, say there are tons of companies competing for every millimeter inside Apple, Samsung, etc. commodity products. It's like musical chairs, and BRCM may not be the favorite for reasons I'm sure you know. Everybody with half a brain knows how very cyclical "semi-cond." companies are, and their cycles can be a bit at variance with whole-economy cycles.
Last, do you really think that this is a solid or predictable "recovery cycle?" Looks to me more like "in intensive care." ... And if people learned one thing from Blackberry, it's ... when you hear a tech stock described as a "value play," don't fall for it. If they aren't at the cutting edge - and heaven knows BRCM isn't at the moment - they can burn through cash darn fast. BRCM's dividend may look nice to some but there's a reason most tech stocks don't pay one.
Back to NUAN - one hates to toy with the idea that one can out-smart Icahn, but there was plenty of "smart money" in Blackberry when its chart looked like NUAN, and most of it probably threw their hands in as things went from bad to worse.... Add tax-selling and I certainly look for NUAN to get down below $15. And with all the institutions skittish about this dog in their portfolio, if the next earnings release has either mediocre results or uninspiring "projections," single digits are not out of the question. (Yes, I have a short position in this one.)
Sentiment: Strong Sell
Why not wish that it kept in lock-step with Google?! There are plenty of stocks (banks esp.) that yield more - vote with your feet, not with your mouth!