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Annaly Capital Management, Inc. Message Board

lenloc 26 posts  |  Last Activity: 16 hours ago Member since: Mar 28, 2002
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  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM

    Hey mark I used to be a Repub TILL they became dumb warmongers. All wars are not dumb and at times necessary like WW2, but wars based on lies are and hence self destructive.
    Now I always said that "show me a Dem and I will show u a knave or a fool" and I still say that. There is no such thing as a smart AND honest Dem. Now some Repubs are both smart and honest but they are becoming rarer. Most have become either stupid warmongers or religious, anti science fanatics and will be poison to the economy ala Bush Jr. Still some are still OK. As for stock divs: True Bush began the low rates but stupidly time limited them to 10 years. It was Obama , a less dumb Dem who made them permanent or at least without time limits. So who should get MORE credit? I think Obama. No? Plus he dialed down the stupid wars and that is why we have had this recovery since 2009. Bad as Hillary is, and she will be bad, The leading Repub crop will be far worse. Kasich a good man has no chance and Rubio is a huge question mark. So I am an economic, pro science Repub who may hold his nose and be forced to vote for the lesser evil, Hillary. I suspect u don't agree with me. But in politics I say "Lets agree to disagree" and let go at that. Its not worth wasting time on political matters and stick to economic and investment issues.

  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 4, 2016 12:24 PM Flag

    Some of my tech stocks went to zero and some I did sell. Its not that I never sell but I don't that I never sell, just not that often. I do have a relatively small position in Conoco so I took a hit. I will probably convert it to CVX. Divs ARE occasionally cut but overall they grow every year except for one year out of 35. That was in 2008 thanks to Bush and his stupid wars ( to finance which Greenspan drastically cut fed funds rate in 2003 and set off the housing bubble which ate up the economy). But they (the divs) have more than recovered since. Yes when stocks drop yields go up but u should be smart enuff to realize that what I pay attention to is the dollar amount of divs. The yield is just for comparison with that of SPY (S&P 500 ETF). If my yield was not over 50% higher I might just as well buy SPY as per John Bogle, go home and stop stock picking altogether. But I like the over 50% greater divs and because of them I outperform the S&P 500 (no mean feat). Yes I also benefit from selling "insurance", I mean puts.
    I was checking performance figures in Fidelity. Over past 5 years my taxable portfolio (in which I can sell puts) grew at 15.01% vs 12.57% for the S&P 500 and 3.25% for Barclays Aggregate Bond index. For 10 years which includes the horrendous 2008 crash my portfolio grew @ 9.69% vs 7.31% for the S&P. Bonds improved growing at 4.51%. This does not take into account the much more favorable tax treatment of stock divs versus bond yields so u can see why I don't invest in bonds. The combination of defensive stocks and Industrials in much higher percentage than the S&P (70% vs 21%) seems to be working out. Prior to 2005 I was with another broker which was bought by Fidelity so figures are not available but an over 9% CAGR ain't too shabby despite the horrendous 2008 crash.
    Past year or so I have stalled in terms of stock price but the divs, not withstanding Conoco and our MREITS are still climbing overall tho perhaps somewhat slower.

  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 4, 2016 8:09 AM Flag

    Well the rise in stocks from 2009 to 2015 had to do a lot with recovery from the massive 2008 crash. Now they are not going up fast. Instead they are drooping. That suits me as a re investor of unspent divs. It may continue in this vein as Obama departs replaced by bozo warmongers. However the divs are likely to continue going up tho more slowly. Of the about 80 stocks in my portfolio the distribution is not uniform. In terms of Dollar value about 40% are in defensive staples, much higher than in S&P and 30% in industrials, also higher than S&P. All are div paying. The remaining 30% are spread over Energy (now only 5% due to their shellacking) Tech 9-10% (Lower than S&P) Financials 7% (less than S&P) Health care and Reits at 3-4% each. So basically a Staples/Industrials portfolio with a combined 70% between them.
    The reason for a largish number of stocks is that my portfolio value is pretty substantial. I mean my divs were such that in 1999 after about 20 years of investing,they exceeded my earned income allowing me to take early retirement and they have only grown since then doubling every 8 years or so (So almost 2 doubles in past 16 years or so despite the horrendous 2008). The average yield is 3.5% versus 2.2% for the S&P and that is a big difference. Otherwise I would be all in SPY or VTI. Its coz almost all my stocks are div payers.
    To me diversification means "I don't know" hence one spreads risk or "bets".
    If one "knew" then one would be far more concentrated but I know that I DON'T know.

  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 3, 2016 5:33 PM Flag

    I have never taken a broker's advice and use Fidelity merely for executing orders and holding my portfolio. Now their comparative tables only go as far back as when they got my account which is only fair. Why (or how) should they project before they got my account? The best decades were the 80s and 90s. Since 2001 the gains have been much more modest. Mostly from dividends. The divs however have been steadily increasing which is what matters to me. (Not those from MREITS of course but they represent only about 4% of my portfolio as an exotica).
    As for earlier times I read that had Trump put his inheritance in the S&P 500 when he got it in 1974 he would be twice as rich. Now does it speak well of the S&P or
    merely indicate that he is lousy in his business. In any case it is said that most of the gains are from reinvested dividends anyway. That is certainly true for me as I look back. A flat or slightly droopy market is the best as long as the divs keep rising. My divs grow at about 8-9%/year compounded (CAGR). This growth is much more dependable than stock prices (MREITS excluded of course). A rapidly rising market is no good for someone like me who steadily re invests unspent divs.
    In a flat or somewhat droopy market the re invested divs are more valuable and their CAGR higher. Counterintuitive huh?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 3, 2016 4:05 PM Flag

    No. I don't keep anywhere near the amount of un invested cash needed to own the amount of puts I sell. That would be a very large sum. I am NOT trying to buy stocks on the cheap at all. However if assigned, which happens in less than 10% of cases, I just forward re sell or recycle. Each forward re sell earns me additional premium. Mathematically it HAS to. Its impossible to take a loss
    Yes a stagnant or mildly declining market is ideal. A rising market is no good as premiums decline.
    So basically I am selling insurance to "nervous nellies" and if one is selective and careful it is the seller of insurance who makes money and not the buyer. When one BUYS puts one is buying insurance and that is usually expensive to the pocket book. Its a nice side business esp if one has a large margin capacity. Without a largish margin capacity and loss carry forward it is not worth it.

  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 3, 2016 2:39 PM Flag

    Over the years I did try selling covered calls only to regret it as I got stopped out or had to buy back at a loss. Its not as easy as it appears at least not for me.
    Now I have never bought put "insurance" but u might be interested that a conservative diversified buy and hold type like myself has frequently indulged in SELLING insurance to nervous nellies by selling discounted puts on rock solid "defensive" stocks like Pepsico, Kimberly Clark, PG, Kellog, Home Depot, Visa, MCD, etc on the theory that in general it is the "careful" insurer rather than the insurance buyer who comes out ahead. The vast majority of times I have "won". On occasions I get "assigned" but then I have a well developed forward "recycling" (re selling) technique and provided I don't sell puts on absolute dogs which just disappear or virtually disappear, I win in over 90% of my transactions. Its a nice bit of extra income. Yes the gains are always treated as short term But in 2000 I racked up some losses during my dumb foray in techs and they are coming very handy. Once I run out of those losses I guess I will stop selling puts since I am in an otherwise very high tax bracket and I absolutely hate paying those exorbitant rates. I know "naked" puts are considered highly dangerous but not if one is careful, selecting only very stable stocks, discounted strike prices and understand thoroughly the concept of forward reselling or "recycling" (as I call it). BTW it is mathematically impossible NOT to keep making additional money during recycling. So "assignment" is not a terrifying experience. I think selling naked puts is actually very conservative if one understands what one is doing. The only problem is that all gains are short term no matter what.

  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 3, 2016 11:50 AM Flag

    I have been buying and holding since the early 1980s so I have accumulated a lot of cap gains which would be taxed upon selling. Secondly, since I took early retirement I pay my bills from my stock dividends, which I term "eggs" (which BTW are also taxed much more lightly than most other income). I don't have to sell (devour) stock, which I term "chickens" to pay bills and in fact I generally keep reinvesting the unspent divs thru thick and thin. So the price of chicken is irrelevant as long as the number of eggs keep rising. Actually the chicken price is relevant in one way. Since I reinvest unspent divs what do u think benefits me more? Buy chicken at increasingly higher prices or the reverse? In a way I am "heartbroken" stocks did NOT fall 20%. Maybe they will and I can reinvest cheaper. The ideal scenario is that divs keep rising while stock prices keep falling. Hope springs eternal. BTW I have never bought any bonds and would have been much poorer if I had. My broker Fidelity, keeps tabs on my portfolio performance vs. S&P and bonds over the decades so I know.

  • Reply to

    Hey marklib

    by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 2, 2016 10:54 AM Flag

    I am diversified over about 80 stocks skewed towards the defensives/staples and as of today am down less than 5% since beginning of 2016 counting the drop today 2/2/16. This is much smaller than the cap gain tax hit I would take on selling, not to mention loss of about 3.5%/year dividend income on which I depend upon to pay bills. I don't own the FANG stocks.

  • Despite the apocalyptic predictions by some the S&P is down about 5% year to date. Bad but not disastrous.
    The defensive dividend paying Defensive/Staples etf XLP is actually a bit UP for the year. The high flying Nasdaq probably took the biggest hit.
    Proves that the market loves to make a fool of the LARGEST number of prognosticators possible.

  • Reply to

    So how is this gonna work out exactly??

    by gracieblackbelt.2012 Jan 30, 2016 12:41 PM
    lenloc lenloc Feb 1, 2016 11:20 AM Flag

    If no one knows how it will all shake out then why not just stop there and not add any other opinion about BV discounts or big market drops? Seems marklibera and perhaps others are still counting on your supposed 20% market drop prediction. Maybe that happens and maybe not.

  • lenloc lenloc Jan 29, 2016 1:28 PM Flag

    U penny ante shriek. U post about 300 shares of wmc!!! Is that ur capital? Musta lost big to get so impoverished. Comeback when u have at least 5K shares. Whatta loser!

  • lenloc by lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:52 PM Flag

    U seem to be a reasonably intelligent type so I am surprised u bought into apocalyptic predictions. R u still waiting for 20% stock market declines?
    Let me tell u why I don't try market timing. First I would enrich uncle sam by paying enormous amount of cap gain taxes. My portfolio would immediately take a 10-15% hit. Second one has to make TWQ right decisions CONSECUTIVELY i.e first, when to sell (and impoverish oneself by paying tax) and THEN when to get back in. No mean feat which few can execute. Market has to be about 10% LOWER than ones sell point just to break even. Had I sold on Dec 31 I would be regretting since the market went down only in single digit %ge and not the predicted 20% u might be waiting for. Meanwhile I would be earning hardly anything on my raised cash instead of about 3% on my composite portfolio. As I have posted before MREITS only form about 4-5% of my total portfolio.

  • Reply to

    hey lennie here i am im long wmc from 10.10

    by reikreik70 Jan 12, 2016 5:10 PM
    lenloc lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:37 PM Flag

    Yeah and u probably got out in the low eights on Jan 20th. Dint ja?
    But then u only play with a hundred shares or thereabouts having decimated ur portfolio.

  • lenloc lenloc Jan 29, 2016 12:31 PM Flag

    Well did it?
    As I see it the market decline is around 6-7% using the S&P 500. Nowhere close to predicted 20%. So who owes who an apology?

  • Long time no post. Still in business or given up the holy financial ghost by going massively short or sump'n?
    This has been one contrarian market with Mreits bucking this New year debacle.
    Should scare the bejesus outta AuntieJanet.

  • Reply to

    like i said sorry lennie have a merry

    by reikreik70 Dec 23, 2015 10:29 AM
    lenloc lenloc Dec 23, 2015 10:34 AM Flag

    Why sorry?
    Anyways da same to u buddy... but not said in sorrow. Ha ha...

  • Reply to

    sorry lennie i cant read you

    by reikreik70 Dec 22, 2015 4:35 PM
    lenloc lenloc Dec 23, 2015 9:31 AM Flag

    reik now says he dun't care about money. Reminds of the 3 biggest lies: 1) I luv home cooking 2) I don't care fer money and 3) Just the tip, honey.
    So reik ur up there xcept ur the phimosed one.

  • Reply to

    sorry lennie i cant read you

    by reikreik70 Dec 22, 2015 4:35 PM
    lenloc lenloc Dec 22, 2015 5:28 PM Flag

    U call 200 shares worth mentioning ..repeatedly? At first I thought it was a typo. Heck its an eleven dollar stock. So u r crowing about what... $2300 holding??
    Thats just loose change ain't it buddy? Is that all your worth after so many years of laboring? And for that u hang around this board posting all that b.s? I think most posters here are much more meaningfully invested. U r just a noisy mosquito or at most a fly buddy. Feel yer pain.

  • lenloc lenloc Dec 22, 2015 12:52 PM Flag

    How can anyone when everyone and their uncle knows u and ur phimosed have been trapped short?
    How? Coz ur incessant attacks on the BV after the divvy announcement. How can anyone be long after such repeated BV attacks?
    No one has been able to run with the hare and hunt with the hounds. Not even u my phimosed amigo.
    gracie at least is honest enuff to attack the bv without claiming to be long as well.

  • lenloc lenloc Dec 22, 2015 7:18 AM Flag

    U shorted when it was in the low 10s and got ur phimosed whatnot in the door.

NLY
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