Not that east insta. Buying puts cost money and time works against u by wasting the premium.
If stock did not fall sufficiently u would lose on ur paid put premium.
Time will tell. We are wasting too much on wars and "security" (which only begets more insecurity) and generally destabilizing the globe by using force to mold it to suit us. This is what caused the economic debacle of 2008 and we have not sufficiently learned our lesson. We think we are winning the war but just look at our deficit and unemployment, esp amongst the youth and ask who is really winning?
So u may be right but i don't think so.
Sorry if I hurt/disappointed u by my atheism.
There r too many reasons against a Creator, the most obvious being that if we believe everything needs a creator then who created the Creator? It becomes an endless process. There r too many others to go into.
No atheists do NOT profess to know everything by any means but they can DISPROVE somethings because of their logical inconsistencies. As Karl Popper said: there is never a proof, only a disproof.
Also I did not say honesty is a "moral" achievement coz morality to me has a "spiritual" connotation with rewards in an "afterlife" or sump'n like that. For me honesty has material advantages in this life, hence the enlightened self interest thing.
The practical implication is that this analysis gives me the confidence to predict why our economy is not coming back to the economic health we enjoyed before 2001 with budget surpluses and hi employment becoz of our increase in hypocrisy and dishonesty since then. This makes "vulture" investments like mreits a good bet. Bernanke will not be able to reverse his easy money policies as some postulate. If I were not fully invested within my mreit allocation i would be buying more.
Do I sound preachy? If so I apologize.
ray i agree that its not just the leverage but also the perceived competence of management i.e their ability to pick the right maturities and the prices paid. Also how they manage cpr, the cost effectiveness of their hedges and expense ratios. those who do that well and avoid frequent div cuts are rewarded. time will tell how well wmc performs. I was impressed by the management's recent cc. they talked a good game. hopefully they also deliver. if i had not filled my allocation for mreits i would buy more on the drops. one thing i'm not worried about is the fed exiting prematurely. Benanke cares about his legacy.
in essence nly is being punished for its timidity or shall we say stupidity. besides nly has a history of frequently cutting divs and allegedly has a very hi cost structure. the previous ceo, Farrel was one the highest compensated ceo on wall st.
ain't gonna happen. he knows and said so that the best way to lower budget deficit is by creating jobs which increase tax revenues and spending and lowers unemployment expenditure. Its not simply by austerity as the repubs want. B will b easing till unemployment falls to 6.5%, which is years away if ever.
B is not a quick thinker and allowed himself to be snookered by the repub congressman in the Q&A uttering some words which the neocon media then joyously misrepresented out of context.. B also has solid enuff support to overcome some dummies in the fed.
that must be very stressful. feel for u buddy.
suggest something which worked for me.
buy a diversified portfolio of rising div paying stocks and focus on the rising divs and not the pps. Once the divs reach critical mass u r home free. the pps becomes irrelevant. (mreits don't fit this strategy hence they r just 5% of my portfolio but they add spice).
ur holdings r too price (not RISING div) focused hence the stres.
hey eye, tho not a psychiatrist its obvious u have an obsessive compulsive disorder. otherwise u would not address ray with all those digits.
ray, i might upset some/many but i have been an atheist since aged 17. People often ask me why an atheist should be a decent or "moral" person? My reply is always the same i.e "enlightened self interest" I practice honesty and fairness coz it is in my own long term MATERIAL self interest and not for so called "moral" reasons i.e its a SURVIVAL mechanism. How long would have I thrived/survived in my profession if i did not honestly study in order to know my subject and give good value added service? Proof of the pudding was that i was pretty successful financially in my profession exactly becoz of that.
Now I don't mean integrity is SUFFICIENT to guarantee material success but is certainly NECESSARY for long term success.
I hardly come across anyone who deep down believes this, certainly not our political classes, at least not over the past dozen or so years.
I know its kinda unconventional thinking for many/most who point out successful crooks, but for every one such there are thousands of failures. One has to think probabilistically/statistically.
Bottom line, it gives me confidence the economy is not coming back to good health and hence the continued case for mreits.
Look at its graph. Even in the last 4 years of Lynch's reign i.e 1986-1990 it had started under performing the S&P. So he retired at ripe old age of 46 and only writes books, articles and peddles advice. He is still advising Fidelity with no great results.
Lynch is still vice chairman of Fidelity Management & Research Co. But he has not been very good at stock picking ever since he retired in 1990 aged 46. I guess he saw his lucky streak running out. He now just writes books/articles and peddles advice and refuses to enter the stock market arena unlike Buffet.
as the ole buy n' holder says,
a cut in divvy will hurt my bones
but fall in price never harms me.
(unless i'm fool enuff to sell)
haven't checked ur math but seems roughly correct. With a div cut of 7c/year (approx 2% reduction/qtr) over 5 years brings the div down to $3.8-$0.35 = $3.45. The mean is $3.8+$$3.45/2 = $3.625/yr and about $18K over 5 years.
Of course u assume reduction of only 2%/year.
I have a different take. I am confident the economy is not coming back to any semblance of good health for a very, very long time if ever, for as a country we have lost our way by becoming exceedingly dishonest and hypocritical over the past dozen years and we don't even recognize or like to recognize it.
Its a law of nature that honesty and absence of hypocrisy though not sufficient, is necessary for continued MATERIAL well being, that honesty is enlightened self interest. (For every #$%$ who gets away there are thousands who do not). No wonder we converted a budget surplus and hi employment to a humongous deficit and hi unemployment. We have fallen and can't get up. MREITS are vulture investments and vultures will be feasting for a very, very long time. Sounds heartless? But thats reality.
And as u said its the correct interpretation of reality which counts.
i for one have no exit plans as the economy will remain weak for ever and ever. why? u ask. my answer is unconventional and politically very incorrect but i firmly believe that hypocrisy and dishonesty is incompatible with long term material well being (law of nature). and for the last dozen or so years we have been practicing big league dishonesty and hypocrisy. no wonder we converted a surplus and low unemployment to a humongous deficit and hi unemployment. but we refuse to see ourselves in the mirror of honesty.
the silver lining, if i may call it that, is that we can stay invested in mreits.
i don't think its malicious manipulation, just that members have differing opinions. also the non voting members are more vocal, probably seeking attention.
fwiw i feel the fed has to remain easy for a very, very long time as the economy ain't gonna roar back anytime soon (if ever). so kick back ur heels and relax.