Hmmmm....so life works badly in the long run? What about a guy who thoroughly enjoyed his life with women, wine and money and dies in his sleep aged 90 or 100? Did life end badly for him?
Could happen to Buffet.
I agree. The Fed just can't click its fingers and declare money to be more valuable than it is. Market forces decide that.
With energy and grains falling and China slowing down deflation outweighs inflation presently.
I believe in good wars. They help the economy. We fought Germany without telling lies and misleading the country. Now I ask you. Did anybody lie (using Colin Powell) and mislead public when declaring war on Iraq? That war, unlike the German war has destroyed our economy with no light at end of tunnel.
How many people fully understand our actions in the ME and why WE are targeted and not Germany, Sweden and Switzerland?
So yes there are good and bad wars. The former are good for economy, the latter are destructive. We better be selective.
Lets be TRUE patriots put America first for a change.
jack, I am a tad surprised at ur attempt at dark humor.
I can see that from ur viewpoint wrecking the economy by new wars will help mreits by keeping ZIRP indefinitely. But seriously at some point one has to think about the country.
We r in a miserable mess already with a gargantuan debt acting as ball and chain. So even without new wars, miserable growth and ZIRP are not going anywhere fast.
So Chairman "Socrates" instead of answering my question about why the budget deficit appeared suddenly in 2002 and increased exponentially to exceed $1 trillion by 2009 you hide behind obscenities?
Fact is u have no answer other than what I suggested. Be a patriot and put America first for a change instead of being a low life shill.
Economy remains weak with no light at tunnel end esp if we start new wars. ZIRP will never end.
However I am surprised bonds fell. They will rise soon enuff.
My energy portfolio at over $3mill is thrice my mreit holdings. It includes several oil majors plus SLB and HAL (the king of frackers).
Now lately they have not being doing so well but i intend to hold em coz we are using more oil than we are finding.
Reason i am in mtge is seasoned management who was highly praised by an ex executive of WMC who i think is pretty well informed. He himself is invested in mtge.
The div is so so but as long as they maintain it 13% ain't too shabby. I really don't have a feel for other mreits hence the disproportionate concentration. Its stable mate AGNC's yield is too low.
WMC, MITT and NYMT together form remaining 20% in that order. Could increase their share as they are acting ok lately. WMC has huge yield.
Mtge lost the lead towards the end but at least closed up.
Is oaks also a hybrid mreit like mtge? Wonder why its down on a strong up day for most mreits.
Leverage seems similar but its a much smaller company.
One word of caution jack. The decline in energy prices was very large. This may not continue or reverse with escalating ME problems. Even tho we don't import much from there the world does and that affects crude price. True grain prices are way down coz of good weather. All in all its OK but watch shelter too.
mtge is racing up today far outpacing its brethren. it represents almost 80% of my mreit holdings. I know that is very unbalanced and i should diversify more. but into what? wmc? mitt? nymt/
Wrong again In 2011 Time magazine estimated the war on terror cost us 5 trillion i.e $64,000 per family of 4 and it has been rising since with no end in sight. The 1.5 T is a neocon flim flam. Besides you have not explained the $200+ Billion budget deficit which appeared suddenly in 2002 and then increased 2 fold, 3 fold, 4 fold and 5 fold by 2009? That just happened? Why?
We had large SURPLUSES upto 2001.
I keep all my mreits in the roth otherwise the tax hit would be very destructive . If u don't have a roth then try to create one. Mreits outside a roth makes little sense..... unless u make too little to pay meaningful tax.
I guess they learned from the last housing debacle and their reckless NINJA (No Income,No Job or Assets) loans which wrecked our economy. I heard the government is pressuring banks to loosen their standards but the banks r too scared (rightly so). So new mortgage creation is low. How does affect mreits? Bullish?
This time i was not referring to reik as his trades r not big enuff to move prices. It was just the recent relatively wild swings in pricing. Yesterday agnc was up while wmc fell heavily. Today its reversing.
Seems mindlessly large swings. However i added some wmc yesterday even tho my overall quota for mreits has been met (about 4% of total portfolio but about 18% of my roth, where in fact all my mreits reside).
I was thinking of converting my agnc to wmc today coz of the large yield difference. But i guess it will have to wait for these mindless traders to do a reverse swing.
Well we agree that economy continues to suck. Question is why, when we were doing so much better in the 1980s and the 1990s? And how to rectify matters. I am sure they can be because fundamentally this is a great country. Just misled since the early part of this benighted century.
Ha ha ha... Socrates, so u have to resort to throwing epithets instead of presenting hard facts, as I did, to explain the dramatic reversal of budget SURPLUSES into DEFICITS beginning in 2002 (when the self destructive "war on terror" on the credit card began in earnest), culminating in the gigantic peak $1trillion+ deficit in 2009. The accumulated and rising debt load is sucking the life blood from our economy but u obviously could not care less.
I think those elements who hate America get angry when someone points out the right diagnosis for what ails our country. Try to put America first for a change....pulleez!
Surely the aging of population must occur gradually yet the budget deficit showed up overnight in 2002.
Examine the charts and u will find we had a $200+ mill SURPLUS in year 2000 and a $100+ mill surplus in 2001. Suddenly in 2002 we had a $100+ mill DEFICIT ballooning to almost $400 mill in 2003 and over $400mill in 2004 and 2005 and then the bottom fell out by 2009 when the deficit reached well above $ 1trillion. Can gradual aging explain this extremely sharp change in the deficit overnight?
The only logical explanation is our very expensive and self destructive "War on Terror" fought on the credit card.
Even the housing bubble was created by Greenspan's lowering of fed funds rate to 1% in 2003 to help finance the Iraq war. This artificially lowered the mortgage rates, lighting up the housing bubble which began in 2004.
So from a $200+ million SURPLUS in 2000 to over $1trillion+ DEFICIT in 2009 with almost half trillion deficits in the intervening years cannot be modeled by population aging.
We are still spending heavily on war, homeland security, spying and ever ballooning veteran benefits caused by war injuries suffered in Iraq and Afghanistan. What is more, the enormous debt burden accumulated between 2002 is further impeding recovery.
IOW "We have fallen down and can't get up"
What would we call a person who racked up such gargantuan debts by foolish self destructive spending? But we seem to forgive our pols who caused this mischief. I wonder why?
But I agree with your MREIT optimism as Mreits tend to thrive in a weak economy when rates cannot be raised and jobs outlook along with consumer confidence/spending sucks.