ton u seem like a smart guy but u got nervous too early. As long as we have Yellen instead of Bernanke, mreits should do well as they are "vulture" investments doing best when the economy is sick which it is. Yellen unlike B realizes that the economy is unhealthy and won't be raising anytime soon.
I did what u suggest with a couple of good stocks in the past only to see them steadily climb way past my strike price limiting my gain. Was very annoying to say the least. Don't do that anymore.
I think this BV of 1 fear is overblown as Yellen continues to sooth the badly jangled nerves induced by her predecessor.
I recall almost all the mReits used to sell at considerable BV premiums before May 2013.
Of course time will tell.
I did not know that part of jack. Certainly surprised me by his wholesale mreit selling after being so bullish on wmc not too long ago.
For myself the mreit fundamentals have been gradually improving since Yellen replaced the disastrous Bernanke who crashed them in summer of '13 by his incautious and over bullish comments on the economy.
jack how can u not be a timer if u sold ur entire position and state that u r waiting for a pull back to reinvest. Now if u said u r getting out of mreits for good then i would agree u r not a timer. By definition a timer is one who is in and out of a security or sector based on his signals or whatever.
But u agree that u will have to make 2 right decisions sequentially if u want to get back in lower...right? In addition there may be cap gain taxes if u bot it lower unless u r all in a roth.
WHAT!!! You jackhiller are out of all mreits??
U r that big a market timer?
And wmc keeps climbing higher and higher?
Remember market timers have to make TWO right decisions in immediate sequence i.e. when to sell and then when to buy back.
If ur a student of statistics think about the timer's probabilities compared to a buy and hold type who only has to make one right decision i.e when to buy.
Nah. When bonds are high bv rises and investors love a hi bv. Besides the spread is unlikely to fall drastically.
Also when bonds fell last summer, increasing yields and presumably spreads the mreits fell HARD coz of lower BVs. Right or wrong investors pay inordinate attention to bv and less to spreads.
I can live with the refi threat as long as bond prices stay up and yields low. After all that is what we had before the May 2013 debacle thanks to loudmouth Bernanke.
Ah I remember it well.
I wish I understood the jargon like durations, swaps, swaptions etc. etc.
But I doubt i would be a better MREIT investor if i did.
Its the big picture which counts which is that the economy is lousy and will stay lousy for as far as the eye can see....and MREITs, like vultures thrive in a lousy economy.
Continuing being off topic...
If u r an RF guy any familiarity &/or preference between AVGO, SWKS & TQNT or are they all much the same?
Buffet has lost almost $1.5 billion in past 48 hours on IBM and $1.2 billion in KO today. Thats $2.7 bill loss on these 2 turkeys in a 48 hour period while the entire market is on a tear. Luckily I sold all my IBM and KO over a year ago coz of well advertised declining sales. Wonder what made Buffet get into IBM recently?
Just shows that ALL humans are by definition stupid, some less, some more. The best one can hope for is to be less stupid...no more. No such thing as a smart human being.
I confess to be trying to be smart alecky or more charitably to be using the Socratic method i.e asking a question whose answer i believe i already know.
FWIW here is my answer to the absence of inflation despite the ominous terms like Fed "inundating us with trillions of dollars from thin air" etc.
Fact is that Fed printed about $3.5 or perhaps 4 trillion. Sounds enormous? It is NOT!
Coz in the mighty 2008 Bush-Greenspan economic debacle we the American public lost about $50 trillion in net worth. We recovered a good deal of the loss in the stock market but the average American's net worth is not in stocks but in the value of his house and that has not recovered much. I think we are still in a $20 trillion hole so printing $4 trillion is small potatoes. That is why no inflation and no increase in consumer optimism or mood.
True recovery will only come with more jobs and higher job participation. Nothing else. Question is how do we get that when we ignore the domestic economy and keep fighting overseas while increasingly bugging and spying upon our own citizens and scaring them with stories of imminent homeland invasion etc.
I think we remain in the $20 trillion hole for as far as the eye can see.
Excuse me but the Lynch &Graham advice about buying when there is blood in the streets is one of the single most dishonest advice there is.
Because it assumes that we always sit around with large amounts of un-invested cash earning next to nothing in money market funds or are ready to go into margin debt and incurring sizable margin cost.
Why do u think inflation is a no show despite ur quote that "the Fed inundated the economy with more than $3.5 trillion since 2008"?
In fact its deflation which threatens.
Weren't we taught that printing large sums of money out of thin air is a sure way towards "inflation hell"?
So what gives?
But jack did u not indulge in short term if not day trading when u said a few days ago u lightened up on wmc? Were u successful at making 2 right sequential decisions and get back in at lower prices?
Frankly i am not good at that myself.