What happened to you nick? U r making thoughtful statements. Back on ur anger pills or what?
Another idea u can ponder on: In the short run the market always tries to fool the largest number of traders it can. Agree?
Why is it celebrating the tragedy? Seemingly wants more of it. Who is in charge of this market...ISIS or sump'n? Sure beats me.
Its a statistical axiom that its the insurer which tends to come out ahead while the insured pays. Its just like the casinos. So buying insurance or "hedging" has as must justification as casino gambling. Most of the time one loses. No wonder Insurance companies and casinos can afford such grand edifices. I also suspect that the "managers" justify their lavish compensation by "managing". Unfortunately its all at our expense. Most of the time they pay a pretty penny for guessing wrong. The tragedy is that while they screw up their compensation goes up but our stock and dividends go south. I wish they would show the investor some mercy and just depend on the spread and leverage because altho the spread will fluctuate it will revert to the mean with time.
Distinct bounce with price $11.20.
No longer fearing the Fed increase? Yellen may yet get cold feet if Nov employment deteriorates.
The monthly jobs numbers are just random walks. What counts is the AVERAGE of the last 3-4 months.
Plus, how can our economy tolerate an even stronger US$? Its killing our exporters/manufacturing etc etc.
Everyone and their uncle is busy devaluing their currencies to get competitive advantage and we like saps want to strengthen ours? Its the banks and their economists which have mounted a huge self serving propaganda for raising rates.
BTW, I hope the MREIT managers learn from their mistakes that buying insurance aka "hedging" is a loser's game good only for the insurers. They should stop losing hedge money and just go with the flow. Stop "managing" and take a long vacation.
I was hoping our other resident guru gracie would enlighten us but he seems to be on ha sabbatical.
I have never been able to time the market so what do i know.
Hey I was just mouthing the views of our resident guru gracieblackbelt who predicted a general market crash of 24% (just for starters) about 3 weeks ago. His arguments were too sophisticated (he is a sophisticated person) for the likes of me. I believe he said he was making it out like a bandit as a shorter. So far for it be for me to contradict such sophisticates I was just wondering if we have a 2-3 weeks of head fakes and the 24% decline (now 35%) decline is about to kick in and whether to really go double short. Not that I have ever shorted anything. Seems u disagree with our resident guru. I wish he would enlighten us now.
Market was supposed to DROP 24% (for starters) a few weeks ago as per the learned and expert shorters. They gave extensive, apparently convincing reasons and claimed how it was a no brainer making oodles of green being short..
Germany was cited as having gone to pot. Since then almost everything has been trending up with one of the best Octobers.
Is this all an extended head fake upon head fake? Should one double down and go double or even triple short?
Come uppance tomorrow? Should be, shouldn't it?
If REIT preferreds make 30% of your total stock portfolio or total portfolio?
Anyway it seems u have a lot of Reits (presumably Mortgage Reits)
The remaining 70% in stocks or bonds or cash?
I guess not stocks since u expect a horrendous stock market crash.
If true then should be good news, but MREIT market in bad temper
I live off my divs and reinvest the unspent. Don't need to sell stock to pay bills. And the important thing is that other than the MREITs my divs (the vast majority) have been rising (about 10%) every year since 2009.
So the idea that one does not make money unless one sells stock is suspect.
Yes I have no plans to buy or sell MREITs. Tho they form about 4% of my portfolio they do contribute about 16% of the divvys...a not inconsiderable number.
I am thinking of the 96% of the non MREIT portfolio. Just this month it has mounted a big rally tho some short sellers predict an imminent horrendous 2008 type collapse. Maybe its all a head fake. If so the shorts should double down now.
As Obama nears the exit door I too may sell about 50% of my general portfolio because other than Trump they all want WW3 by directly confronting Putin by imposing no fly zones and other aggressive insanities. This includes Hillary. Only Trump talks like a businessman. A carnival barker tho he might be he will be great for the stock market. Perhaps even better than Obama. Like it or not the stock market is very very dependent on presidential politics. Can't get away from that.
Don't stocks "climb a wall of worry"?
Are the market actions including WMC mere head fakes? Are we all going down 24% (for starters) as gracie so confidently predicted in the early part of this month?
Market head fakes appear to continue.
I am sure the shorts won't be fooled and continue to hold their positions. Perhaps even doubling down for the "BIG KILL"!!!
Hillary is on ur side trash talking the market down every other day. Too stupid to realize that a sliding market is poison for the incumbent president's party. For the past 50+ years a downwardly sloped market is the single best predictor of the incumbent president's party demise. Zero exceptions. Conversely an up slope guarantees victory.
Correction. Most of the DAX correction occurred before the Volkswagen scandal not after as I claimed and it had risen just shy of 27% for the year....a huge rise compared to our markets.
Don't wanna make fake arguments if I can help it.
I examined the numbers more closely. True the DAX declined 25% from its yearly high but that was about 28% up for the year. The S&P was never more than about 5-6% higher for the year. The major German market decline occurred after THEIR "911" ie the unbelievably dirty Volkswagen scandal besmirching the reputation of the entire country and German engineering in particular.
Leon Cooperman states that the average US stock is already about 20% down from its yearly or recovery high. If so we have already gone a significant stealth correction. True he may be a perma bull but I do see many of the energy, natural resource, industrial, consumer cyclical and biotech stocks with even deeper corrections not to mention the MREITs. Cooperman claimed the current market PE is at the long term average. Time will tell. I may lighten up before Obama leaves but the 2 right consecutive decision problem bothers me. I have seen many folks make serious blunders ie selling low and buy back higher. As it happens that does not apply to poker, does it?
FWIW, politics were at the heart of the 2008 cataclysm. The then record low interest rate of 1% instituted by a rogue Fed prez in June 2003 and maintained for a whole year, and which started the massive housing bubble was placed during a strongly RISING economy, quite unlike now when the economy is limping. It was done to finance the then recently declared Iraq war on the credit card. Trying to sweep it under the rug and make the wrong diagnosis prevents us from learning from experience. Not good. So unfortunately politics instigated the massive housing bubble of 2004-8 which swallowed our economy. A repeat of that is unlikely in my opinion because subconsciously or otherwise we have learned a lesson to some degree. None of our current problems in aggregate match that self inflicted gargantuan housing bubble. Not even close. Yes we are doing to ourselves what the Soviets did to themselves by getting bogged down in Afghanistan but we are fundamentally stronger and can stand self abuse longer. However we are paying by having a 2% economy endlessly instead of coming out of a recession within 2 years by a 4-5% economy as we used to since the 1950s.
Yes there is a price to be paid for sweeping the real cause under the rug. Running from reality is seldom smart.