You are way off on the BV. The company announced through it's earnings release that the book value was down to $4.56, pre split. Someone correct me if I am wrong.
The SP has closed under $14 the past 7 Sessions. I figure if Management could have picked up somewhere in the vicinity of 2.6 million shares for the 7 Sessions and met the .25% Cap on Buybacks. If this Market Slide keeps going for a while we are going to do extremely well on the Buybacks.
At least top management at RSO has put their money where their mouths are, so to speak. Not at ARR that I'm aware of. And ARR is the worst of the worst as far as reits go, IMO. RSO missed on AFFO because of a one-time bad deal on a Puerto Rican property. So I'm hopeful of a recovery in RSO. Not at all in ARR that I can see.
So you didn't know that there's a thing called LEAKS/RUMORS of a potential buyout which would spike the SP. Anotherwords, according to your statement no one outside of the parties involved knows about any talks going on. Otherwise, why would the share price get down to new 52 week lows?
So your predicting the SP will go to $2.50 pre split ($10 post split) based on current $3.20 SP if they don't meet a $.64 dividend. That's another 22% Drop.
Per Press Release:
"The reverse stock split is expected to take place after the market close on August 31, 2015 (the "Effective Date"). "
Take a look at the November 12 Puts. Up 177% today. Unreal. The Market would really have to Crash and Burn for ACAS to go under $12 when they Expire, IMO. Still think your $14 Nov Puts will be okay for the reasons previously stated.