Your not going to erase the deficit to NAV without reinstating a dividend. I don't see where the specific reentry of the dividend would take place.
"They will have to pay a 65 cent dividend in 42 days"
What are you basing that on? Do they have undistributed earnings?
Their Fees are based on Asset Valuation I believe.
They know the retail buying would dry up on the uncertainty of a dividend drop.
With Lefkowsky retaining Chairmanship and controlling interest (I believe), why would think there is any inkling of an imminent buyout. He wouldn't sell when there was $6 Billion on the table. So you think he's going to unload with half that or maybe less? Amazon didn't get out because they couldn't compete with Groupon. They got out because they got tired of continual losses on the Local Deals business.
Your AFFO comes in 1/3rd less than the dividend rate. So who wants this stock looking at the probability of a dividend haircut that could very well be to .40 a quarter? Why buy at $12 now when this would drop to $8-$10 on the dividend?
If the Board doesn't put it up for sale there no one will bid for the company at this point. Lefkowsky won't vote sell. He's rather let Groupon just rot along with shareholders.
Why daily deals are dying
The daily deals model has two big weaknesses. First, businesses often can't make money after offering a steep discount and paying a site its cut of the sale. Second, the "loss-leader" strategy of attracting customers to businesses with steep discounts to generate additional purchases and customer loyalty doesn't work, since many customers were only interested in the next daily deal.
Groupon typically retains a 50% cut of each sale as a marketing fee. That might seem greedy, but it's not enough to keep the company profitable due to the expenses of running the site, promoting it, and hiring sales representatives.