Just some thoughts on the latest study results. Although it's great that Receptos met their study endpoints, here are a few concerns. First, why would they hold back the effectiveness data? Compare it to the release from the P2 study last October. Second, the October data was good but not great (16% remission vs 6% for placebo). Could it be that the new data is less convincing? Compare that to the Crohn's data released by Celgene a few days ago (55% remission vs 10%). Celgene has really set the bar high on the coming Crohn's study, and we may have to discount the market opportunity accordingly.
Don't get me wrong, I am long at this point in time but not comfortable. We all have to wait till 2018 before seeing any revenue. A lot can change in three years, particularly around competition and greater market turbulence.
Congrats on a stellar year! Hoping here to get to your point someday!
Regarding VXX, I went long this week but then closed it quickly with some prodding from your commentary. Will wait till after expiration. With Greece struggling to pay their debt this month, I believe the pressure is really building and the market hasn't realized it yet. Have you seen their debt payment schedule for the next three months?
Curious, do you let your accountant take care of your Form 8949, or do you file yourself? I have been taking the latter route, for better or worse. Using a program called Simply Track which looks like it was written a decade ago. Been thinking of trying Tradelog next year, and I am looking for opinions. Any thoughts?
Also, how do you track your portfolio? I have been thinking of writing a portfolio management program for active traders, but not sure whether it's needed by anyone else besides me. Basic features would be long/short equity and option tracking across multiple accounts, money-weighted rate of return, and risk-related features (correlations, distribution graphs, that sort of thing).
It appears that David Brewster agrees with you, with a legitimate insider purchase at 10.75 a few days ago. I am in for two boats at 10.59. Looking to lighten up sometime soon, but unfortunately liquidity with ENOC is usually the limiting factor.
Hey, no problem. I shorted at 17.3x, rode it up to near 19, then covered at 17.4x right before earnings. I try not to hold during earnings, but I sure wish I had broken that rule this time! From a historical perspective, it sure appears like a good price here. It may be good for a technical bounce in the short term, but this could very well be a value trap in the medium to longer term. They are continuing their transition from a DR company into a software company. With an unclear market size and unclear investment needs, this business will be much harder to value going forward. Plus, I don't see anything good coming out of the PJM auction this spring, given everything happening in the energy sector lately. Finally, management has been very good at awarding themselves new shares and acquiring goodwill. I don't see any of that changing. Will continue to check in here occasionally. Good luck! -lf
Aren't the coffers already well filled? On the recent conference call, the CFO stated they have enough cash to last into Q3 2016. If Ignite 2 data is due in a few months, why not wait until after that release? Surely, good results would allow them an opportunity to sell shares at a higher premium.
To prove your point, TTPH mentioned along with CEMP on CNBC this evening. Easy way to find the clip: search for RCPT on Yahoo and see the link titled "Does this biotech stock have more upside?" The clip is about Receptos but starts with an overview of the CRE outbreak.
Don't get too excited. The purchase price is listed as $0.00 and the footnote on the Form 4 says "Includes 7373 shares received as a pro rata distribution in kind from Third Rock Ventures GP, L.P." This looks more like an award/grant to me.
Okay, vol sellers, take a look at the OVX (VIX applied to USO) and tell me, what is the best way to short volatility on oil? Sell the near month USO call and buy the next month? What strikes? Is this a no-brainer trade? What are the risks? -lf
Thank you both for the explanations. BTW, I rode XIV down into the fours in 2011 before selling in the nines. Talk about impatience! I had averaged down to where the spot VIX was 27, so I use that as my benchmark on where to scale in. I have also learned to short volatility coming out of a crisis and not going into it. Goodoptday's explanation of "volatility of volatility" helps illustrate why that may be a safer strategy.
On October 15, 2014, the stock market was in a near-term panic with the spot VIX shooting over 27. Yesterday, the spot VIX barely hit 22 and the curve is relatively flat compared to October. Yet if we compare the price of XIV then and now, here's what we see:
Date Open Low
10/15 26.64 24.67
10/16 24.85 24.71
01/30 26.89 24.80
Now lets look at VXX over the same period:
Date Open High
10/15 41.58 44.25
10/16 44.26 44.60
01/30 34.57 37.07
If the market spends most of it's time in contango, wouldn't we expect XIV to be higher now? (particularly since the VIX curve is about 5% lower now!) That seems like a huge tracking error in XIV. Just thought it was interesting enough to send along. If you have any insights or explanations, I'd love to hear it. -lf
Didn't he exercise and sell them right away? I don't see how this is positive, and it argues against a buy out in the immediate future.