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Athenahealth, Inc. (ATHN) Message Board

lesserfool75 17 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 17, 2014 10:27 PM Member since: Apr 26, 2010
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  • Reply to

    Non-VXX June&July/2014

    by goodoptday Jul 10, 2014 9:56 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 Jul 17, 2014 10:27 PM Flag

    Hope today brought you some relief despite the VXX rise. After a tumultuous ride, I ended up closing my UNG position two weeks early. Still positive but left most of it on the table. Not sure it was worth the extra gray hairs!

  • Reply to

    Distributed Energy Revolution

    by jpmarketer Jun 14, 2014 3:14 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 Jun 15, 2014 8:39 PM Flag

    I see it as an opportunity for DR, but not necessarily EnerNOC. On Point had a show earlier this year about solar ("search for Big Solar And Renewable Energy In The Age Of Fracking") that talked about homeowners leasing solar panels from companies like Solarcity. They are already looking at DR as a business opportunity (similar to Google with Nest, they have a relationship and infrastructure in the home). I don't think EnerNOC can or will compete in the retail market (was Comverse the company that tried and failed here?)

    As supply grows and diversity grows, we will likely see lower prices ahead for DR. EnerNOC's management likely sees it too, which is why they've been so keen on diversifying recently. If people believed DR was a sustainable, defensible business, EnerNOC would have been bought out long ago.

    Disclosure: long here for a trade.

  • lesserfool75 by lesserfool75 Jun 12, 2014 8:16 PM Flag

    My limit order got filled for one whole share. That's $8.70 and $2.50 in commissions. Too funny!

  • Reply to

    efficient markets

    by lesserfool75 Jun 3, 2014 11:01 AM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 Jun 3, 2014 7:27 PM Flag

    Just clarifying, since I think I've got my details wrong. I would propose that yesterday's drop is the result of Credit Suisse, while today's drop is the result of the S-8. The new S-8 adds potentially 2 mil new shares, after adding 2.5 mil potential shares a year ago (of which only net 500K have gone into circulation). Does this become a yearly occurrence? Sure seems that way...

  • Reply to

    efficient markets

    by lesserfool75 Jun 3, 2014 11:01 AM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 Jun 3, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    Looking closely, management granted themselves (and employees) 1.5 mil shares during 2013, and then voted to repurchase 1 mil shares. So essentially they transferred from company coffers into their own pockets, with shareholder approval.

    That 1.5 mil shares represents over 5% of the value of the company. That's a lot of dilution for a company no longer a startup.

  • Reply to

    efficient markets

    by lesserfool75 Jun 3, 2014 11:01 AM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 Jun 3, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    From Credit Suisse report issued yesterday:

    "Following the court's decision to vacate FERC Order 745 on May 23 and FERC's ruling on rule changes in PJM on May 9, we lower our Target Price to $20 (from $23) reflecting 7x 2014 EBITDA. We believe a discounted multiple is warranted given the increased uncertainty and risks posed by both developments"

    Also, refer to the results of the annual meeting announced yesterday. Interesting to read the "nay" votes against the compensation plan. Management is very well compensated with both cash and grants.

    From the last 10Q:
    Roughly $4 million per quarter in stock-based compensation expense.
    500K new shares issued per year.

  • lesserfool75 by lesserfool75 Jun 3, 2014 11:01 AM Flag

    No new information between the PJM press release and the Credit Suisse report yesterday. Fundamentals? Yeah, whatever. Let's try technicals: A bit of support at 17 and then more support around 16.

    Dilution is killing this company. Cash-flow positive and yet management is taking all the gains (and spending on acquisitions as they look for a new golden goose). We are entering a lower-growth area. Management should consider some sort of divi, but it ain't gonna happen.

  • lesserfool75 by lesserfool75 Jun 2, 2014 7:46 AM Flag

    similar revenues
    similar growth rate
    similar GAAP losses
    similar "growth at any cost" management
    similar "story stock" status
    similarly misunderstood product and market
    similar guidance
    and now, finally: similar valuation

    My point: FEYE would have been a good model going into Q1 results. They are completely different companies, and yet they are practically the same stock. Investors buy cash flows and growth rates, not products. Watch out for arbitrage opportunities like this going forward. Also, FEYE may point to a lower bound in terms of valuation.

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 May 28, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    For the record, I closed this trade this morning.

  • lesserfool75 by lesserfool75 May 27, 2014 9:04 PM Flag

    Clearly, WDAY is an anointed company. Forward P/S over 20. Even Tableau, with revenue growth of 84% YoY and profitable, can only manage a P/S of 12 in this market. Granted, the addressable market of WDAY is much larger than DATA, but I don't see how WDAY can sustain this growth rate into the billions of $ in revenue. A more appropriate comparison: CRM, with $5+ billion in revenue, has a P/S around 6.

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 May 27, 2014 11:10 AM Flag

    BTW, short at 20.68 today. Time will tell. I think this is a liquidity-driven rise. We know what happens to ENOC when liquidity dries up.

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 May 27, 2014 9:43 AM Flag

    Regarding today's opening: wow. Just wow.

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 May 27, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    Just to save y'all the trouble, here's the comparison with last year:

    2017/18: 4000MW $185mil
    2016/17: 4400MW $140mil

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 9:31 PM Flag

    I don't have any insights, but I think it would depend on how Enernoc's contracts are structured. For example, if they are based on the amount of participation (say, a flat fee per customer or a flat fee per megawatt served), then the number of participants is down and revenue will be down. However, the total dollar value of DR is higher than last year. If Enernoc takes a percentage of total dollar value, then it looks like the results are better than last year. Confused? Yeah, me too.

    Let's see what the market says on Tuesday. If anything, this removes some near-term uncertainty.

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:38 PM Flag

    And of course, more regulatory uncertainty. From the PJM Press Release:

    *PJM is evaluating a May 23 appeals court ruling vacating FERC Order 745 in its entirety. This ruling could affect how demand response resources are able to participate in PJM's markets in the future. Since the court has not issued a mandate requiring FERC to take action pending appeal of its ruling, there are no immediate impacts on the current base residual auction results.

  • Reply to

    PJM Results for 2014

    by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM
    lesserfool75 lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    For comparison's sake, here's the piece from the 2016-2017 results (last year):

    Extended Summer DR and Annual Resources located in the RTO is $59.37/MW-day for all three capacity product types. The Resource Clearing Price for Limited DR, Extended Summer DR and Annual Resources located in the MAAC LDA is $119.13/MW-day for all three capacity product types. The Resource Clearing Price for Limited DR, Extended Summer DR and Annual Resources located in the PSEG LDA is $219.00/MW-day for all three capacity product types. The Resource Clearing Prices for Limited DR,
    Extended Summer DR and Annual Resources located in the ATSI LDA are $94.45/MW-day, $114.23/MW-day and $114.23/MW-day, respectively.

  • lesserfool75 by lesserfool75 May 23, 2014 5:25 PM Flag

    Overall, supply is down, prices are up. Not so bad, right? Some excerpts:

    A total of 10,975 MW of demand response was procured -- a decrease of about 1,433 MW from last year's auction. However, there was a significant shift to the types of demand resources that have more flexibility and a greater contribution to reliability. There were 1,401 MW more "annual" and 4,693 MW "extended summer" demand resources clearing in this auction than last year, while the amount of "summer-only" demand resources declined by 7,527MW since last year.

    The total quantity of demand resources offered into the 2017/2018 BRA was 11,293.7 MW (UCAP), representing a decrease of 22.2% over the demand resources that offered into the 2016/2017 BRA. Of the 11,293.7 MW of total demand response that offered in this auction, 10,974.8
    MW cleared and will be awarded capacity payments. The cleared demand response is 1,433.3 MW less than that which cleared in the 2016/2017
    BRA representing an 11.6 % decrease. Of this change, 1,073.1 fewer MWs of DR cleared in the MAA C LDA and 360.2 fewer MWs of DR cleared outside of the MAAC LDA. Table 3A contains a comparison of the Demand Resources Offered and Cleared in 2016/2017 BRA & 2017/2018 BRA represented in UCAP.

    The RCP for Limited DR, Extended Summer DR and Annual Resources located throughout the RTO except for the PSEG LDA and the PPL LDA is $106.02/MW-day, $120.00/MW-day and $120.00/MW-day, respectively. In the PSEG LDA, the RCP for Limited DR, Ex tended Summer DR and Annual Resources is $201.02/MW-day, $215.00/MW-day and $215.00/MW-day, respectively. In the PPL LDA, the RCP for Limited DR, Extended Summer DR and Annual Resources is $40.00/MW-day, $53.98/MW-day and $120/MW-day, respectively.

ATHN
133.48+1.37(+1.04%)Aug 22 4:00 PMEDT

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