One interpretation of the Piper note is: "Remember those non-responding patients we told you about? Well, let's not give up on them so soon." However, people are interpreting his comments as preparing the street for more bad news, or maybe they will be lengthening the timeframe of the outstanding trials.
Today seems like traders decided to shoot first and ask question later. According to Street Insider, the CEO commented: "Reaction to Piper note much ado about nothing"
Here is a useful article that shows historical growth in revenue for new antibiotics. While I like TTPH's chances of approval (eventually), I don't like the expected revenue curve here. I bet they raise equity again next year on any sustained pop.
Also do a google search for the colistin news out of China this past week. Scary stuff!
This is really an excellent post, but you are forgot something: Not only did they use the debt for acquisitions they also used a portion to buy back stock at a price far higher than here!
I agree with fitz on this. XIV has not been the place to be recently. We've picked up well less than a percent from contango effects over the past two weeks here. Spot VIX has been bouncing around, with 14 providing a clear floor. Look at the bulge appearing with the Nov and Dec futures. Maybe things will change as we get closer to expiration, but it feels like we are picking up nickels in front of the proverbial steam roller.
Here is an illustration of price decay in XIV and similarly SVXY:
Let's consider the difference between the front month and next month contract, the days to expiration, and the close of XIV:
Aug 19: 15.725 - 16.325 DTE: 27 Close: 46.94
Oct 22: 16.025 - 16.825 DTE: 26 Close: 31.93
That's a 32% drop in two months.
Yet backwardation over that time wasn't nearly that pronounced. If we say 10% on average for September and 5% on average for October, that would put us at about a 15% drop.
Where does the discrepancy come from? Daily rebalancing in the face of increasing volatility-of-volatility? From the prospectus:
"Daily rebalancing will impair the performance of each ETN if the underlying Index experiences volatility and such performance will be dependent on the path of daily returns during the holder's holding period."
Here's a decent article with a more complete explanation:
Does this explain the discrepancy for you in its entirety? Any other explanations?
Disclosure: long XIV, but planning to reduce exposure
Yes, what will Paul Ryan do if he becomes speaker? Boehner was supposed to bring a clean bill to the floor before leaving office. That may be in jeopardy.
Yes, that also explains the run-up with the SCD results earlier this year. There is a well-informed investor out there.
Actually I am long and averaged down on Friday to a recoverable loss. Sold Nov 25 covered calls. Trying to decide whether I stick it out through the NDA and upcoming trials, particularly the pediatric study.
Let's focus on those indications for which Soli will be immediately indicated:
With 5-10 million cases of CAPB per year, let's split the difference and say 7.5 million prescriptions.
Using your same 10% market share estimate, that's 750K prescriptions.
Guessing $200-$400 per prescription, that puts us at $150M to $300M per annum.
Let's be generous and assume the launch goes well and Cempra captures $150M in 2017.
More fudge factors: assume a P/S of 6 and a discount rate of 20% per year to account for the added risk here.
That gives an NPV of $625M, or a PPS of $14.25.
Let's change the fudge factors and assume a P/S of 10 and a discount rate of 15%:
That gives an NPV of $1134M, or a PPS of $25.77
Upsides: new indications
Downsides: poor partnership terms, a secondary between now and 2017
Otherwise, it seems like we are right where we should be. What have I missed?
Any thoughts on how the elevated enzymes would impact pediatric indications? I know there will be separate trials, but I wonder if people are discounting the pediatric market at this point. -lf
This is silly. Don't be foolish. You're risking your family's well-being on something you have no control over. At the very least, hedge with options. Take some money off the table or buy far OTM puts.
And to think VXX almost hit 20 after the Fed announcement. Who here believes in efficient markets? What really has changed since then?
The media narrative moves on to the debt ceiling debate any moment now...
This has become a "show me" stock. It will take more than one good quarter to prove that it can make the transition to something other than a low-margin demand response company. Things keeping it down include: low energy prices, the Supreme Court hearing, a management team that loves to grant itself more shares, and a negative tangible book value. Quite a list!
Go search for the study "Levofloxacin in the treatment of complicated urinary tract infections and acute pyelonephritis" in the NIH library. The lead-in study painted a pretty decent picture, but the bar may have been set a lot higher than people realized. I wonder if it passed the smell test with TTPH management. It might help explain all the insider selling.
Another possibility is that the lead-in site or sites had high prevalence of resistant bacteria. They did mention on the call yesterday that eravacycline still beat levofloxacin against resistent bacteria.
goodoptday, welcome back! You went dark for a while there; glad to see you have made it through so far. As for myself, I am down about 15% on my short vol position but don't feel very comfortable with it. It feels like a regime change here. I know we will get it back eventually, but we can't expect the same gains going forward. I wish the Fed would just raise rates already so that people realize the world isn't ending. Anything else will just draw out the volatility till December.
Took a huge hit today on a single issue, the biggest of my career by far (and no, it's not coming back). The nice thing about these vol plays is that backwardation is temporary and vol will always revert to the mean.