From the PR: "The primary objective for the RADIANCE and SUNBEAM trials is to assess whether RPC1063 is superior to Avonex(R) in reducing the annualized relapse rate in patients after two years of therapy and one year of therapy, respectively. "
So they had started a two-year trial, and they are just now beginning a one-year trial. What is the benefit of two separate, overlapping trials?
One other thing to consider: oil and bonds have shown a lot of correlation recently. As oil falls, inflation expectations have fallen too. So short-VXX, short UAL, short TLT, long USO may all be one highly correlated set of positions.
You might do okay shorting bonds here, but think more about which part of the curve you want to be short. The problem with the long bond is that there is nowhere better to park ones money. It's the cleanest dirty shirt in the world. Consider looking at IEI rather than TLT. I made this mistake over the last year+ and have regretted it terribly.
So if I am tallying correctly, you are now long the equivalent of 19500 shares of USO and 3000 shares UNG. That seems like a concentrated position in energy to me, but I may be mis-estimating the size of your portfolio.
We could easily see $50 WTI in the next six months, and I wouldn't be surprised to see $40 or $45 sometime over the next year before prices stabilize.
Hope you can hold your position through a trough like that. But, as we know, hope is not a strategy.
I am not sure what to make of all these sales. Except for Neil Moses, they are all coded as: "The purpose of this transfer was to cover tax obligations of the Reporting Person in connection with the vesting of certain equity awards." I don't think there is any sea change here.
That is one huge long position in oil. Near term (next three months), what arrests the fall here? US output is still expected to grow in 2015, and many drillers are hedged. We all know it's just a matter of time before oil rises again, but the question is when? I think we are six months to a year away from any sustained move. Just look at natural gas and how long that oversupply took to clear up. Leases and projects are still underway. Drillers will continue to drill just so they can keep the lights on.
I have a long position via puts sold, but I am thinking of either exiting completely or switching to selling OTM calls instead. I think we see 60 within the next few months, but things don't start getting interesting until the summer driving season is in view. The next OPEC meeting is June. So I am looking at March-May as the sweet spot for initiating a long position. Lots of other things to trade in the meantime. Good luck. -lf
You may get another chance on USO if the Iran nuclear talks go well. Sold more Dec USO puts yesterday but am not feeling so great about it.
Jim Chanos did a great interview for "The New House Of Money" to be published soon. You can download the chapter at Dronby Capital's website or on Scribd. Worth a read.
Maybe the daughter should pay more in tuition, since she's benefiting more from the school's resources. Wondering what her father would think about that!
You are absolutely killing it, but it's easy to envision volatility picking up over the next few months. Wondering if we are close to a regime change going forward. Maybe going farther out the curve (i.e. ZIV?). Short HYG still looks like a decent hedge against spikes in vol, but the divis are pretty steep.
Do think long and hard about trading the tax money. I got caught during the downdraft last April just as I had to write a very large check. Estimated tax has been even more of a headache for me, since I've done modestly in 2014 compared to 2013.
Not so sure. From what I recall, some analysts' valuation models didn't include anything for UC. You might want to wait for these analysts to release their new price targets.
I am eating my words on this. Healy is still selling. Now the questions become: Who is smarter, Healy or Brewster? And which one will Dixon follow? Time will tell.
It appears that Healy and Brewster have made some changes to their regular selling down here. Will Dixon join them?
(I was going to post this yesterday, but I was waiting for any last-minute filings with the SEC to confirm. What a difference a day makes!)
Guessing this is just a liquidity-fueled sell-off today rather than anything more serious. People could be getting in front of the earnings release in a few weeks. I am expecting earnings to be light, given the cool summer we have experienced in the US.
I have averaged down here, but this will probably take a while to turn around. No reason to buy in the short term. If I had to do it again, I would wait for signs that the execs believe in their business (by stopping their insider selling)
Serious question: where is the crisis? Is it just ebola fears putting a damper on growth? Unlike 2008, banks are well capitalized (in the US) and credit markets have not seized up. Businesses have record cash and and not a lot of excess (capacity, inventory, etc.). Households are in better shape, and a sell-off in oil is like a stealth tax break for the consumer.
The two-year chart shows pretty good support in the 14-16 range. Decent cash flow, reasonable valuation, and mgmt's willingness to buy back shares...what am I missing? Is EnerNOC's business model being questioned? Are they just caught up in the energy-related sell-off as world growth slows? Thoughts?
Disclosure: initiated a small long position near the low today (for a trade)