On days of huge intraday volatility swings (like yesterday), XIV will sometimes trade at a premium to its daily indicative value. It's as if traders get ahead of themselves with these products. You should be looking at today's opening price relative to yesterday's daily indicative value of 26.64 and not yesterday's closing price.
If we were all paying attention in the final minutes of yesterday, we should have calculated daily indicative value based on the VIX futures, realized we were set for a drop, sold our position in XIV before close, and then bought back in after hours. I missed this trade too, so don't feel bad!
It happens. Guessing you are still beating the market. Will you be building a long portfolio before this is through?
Two things I want to pass on: First, against my better judgement, I held on to my short position through EOD. I remember the same after-hours drop during the peak of volatility last October. There has got to be something going on with the NAV calculations on these funds during hugely volatile days. Has anyone here worked it out?
Second, noticing that the thirty year has hardly moved these past few days. Where is all the money going? Cash? Gold?
I disagree. I think a better reference here is the Asian crisis of 1997-1998. Or maybe the tsunami. People will realize soon that the world is not ending. Just look at the swiftness of this move. Better to get it over with quickly.
The difference between 2011 and now is that the volatility in 2011 dragged on for months. It was historic volatility, but not in the same way as the volatility of the past week. The future of the Euro was at stake. VIX futures were out into the thirties for as long as the eye could see. XIV dropped from around 19 down to 4 and change. I know, because I rode it down terribly. I'm not saying it can't happen again, but it will take a crisis greater than emerging market problems to get us there.
The key lessons I learned during 2011 I pass on to you here: (1) if you want to short volatility, you have to stay away from margin, and (2) scale in over a number of days or weeks. These crises don't last forever. Better to buy in at an average price than time the bottom (although you did well this morning). Then put it in a drawer and forget about it. Good luck. -lf
I know it's a "trading plan", but what kind of trading plan causes the CEO to step it up and sell 55000 share right before critical data is to be release? Seriously, although the plan is reported to have been put in place in Nov 2014, does anyone know the reporting requirements for amending the plan?
Smells fishy to me. They have the data. They can choose to release it when they are ready.
Any knowledge on what happens to options, both August and later expirations? Personally, I sold $230 covered calls (although you appear to have made out better with those $230 puts).
Near term, the price of the RCPT shares should rise to equal the total value of the deal. So he is probably fine through September expiration. I have no idea what happens if the deal closes before the option expires. Guessing it is up to the option holder to exercise the option and take possession of the shares before the the date of record. Can anyone confirm?
Here is a short summary of the case, from the Economist:
"The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission ruled this summer that grid operators should pay demand-response providers the going rate for megawatts. But an industry group, the Electric Power Supply Association, along with other incumbent firms, argues that real energy generated by real power plants should attract a higher price, in order to stimulate much-needed investment."
The supreme course case is getting ever closer, as demonstrated by the following article. Guessing this downdraft is caused in part by the uncertainty...hoping it's nothing more. Enjoy:
A slow drip downward followed by someone opening the spigot today. Is this what a leak looks like? Slow Q2 and poor outlook, given the cool summer and collapsing energy prices? Or something more?
Nice! I had been following ANAC for a while but never pulled the trigger. Really surprised by the size of that move. Will be watching for your picks in the future.
I would say that it follows the energy complex downward. Also, PJM is a near term overhang until we get that out of the way. After that, the Supreme Court hearing keeps a ceiling on this into the fall.
On the plus side, we have some nice insider purchases down here. I have been selling covered calls on this and may continue to do so for the next couple months.
Let's start with the assumption that the current market size is 9B for all antibiotics. Let's also assume that the actual number of infections is relatively constant. The only way the market size grows is if an inferior low-cost solution is replaced with a superior higher-cost solution. We know TTPH has a unique solution that allows doctors to send their patients home earlier, so TTPH can command a premium for this feature.
Unfortunately, doctors don't necessarily choose the antibiotics available within the hospital setting. Hospital boards must first approve. So, if you were on a hospital board and had to fill your stocks of antibiotics, would you choose: (A) Merck/Cubist's IV solution (with a proven track record from a big company that keeps your hospital's beds full a little longer) or (B) little Tetraphase (unproven, and that lets hospital revenue literally walk out the door).
I am not saying that Tetraphase can't fight this battle and win. It will take time, however, and it can certainly benefit from a brand-named partner. But I think we need to temper our expectations for the adoption rate of this drug.
From TTPH's own website:
"the worldwide market for antibiotics is more than $40 billion, almost $9 billion of which is in the U.S."
"Research conducted by the IDSA indicates that the overall cost related to antibiotic-resistant pathogens in the U.S. ranges from $21 billion to $34 billion annually, and requires
an additional 8 million hospital days."
On the one hand, TTPH will capture a small amount of the existing $9B market. I think their best chance is at expanding the overall market by reducing the hospital costs, but where is the hospitals incentive to reduce those costs?
I urge and implore you to be careful with the TBT calls. You may be okay for a bounce on a small position here, or as a hedge against your VXX position. However, we have two important NFP reports between now and expiration. The dialog on rates is really starting to change. It's no longer a matter of if, but when. Look at the 10yr Bund this week to see the amount of mispricing in bonds and the types of moves we can expect going forward.
Personally, I am on the other side of the trade, selling ITM calls on IEI. It's a different part of the yield curve, and easier to predict than the long end of the curve..