This offering can't price soon enough. From 27+ to 17+, one of the most unfriendly, destructive, and ill-timed financing rounds I remember. Management sold investors out! Who would want to invest after that type of action?!
I don't think it's right to expect exponential growth here. Looking at other launches, a linear growth rate is more realistic. That's what the analysts will be using. The number of doctors, patients, and (most importantly) sales people are all constant here. The only thing that changes is awareness and comfort in prescribing a new medication. That all takes time.
I have my own linear model that unfortunately I've had to keep revising downward. My prediction for next month is 1544 starter kits and 1524 paid Rx. The other wrinkle here is that the paid Rx are starting to overtake the freebies. I don't know what to make of that quite yet, but I don't think it's good.
Nice volume today. I took advantage of the liquidity to reduce my position, and I sold June ATMs against the rest. Time will tell whether we stay at these levels, but we have had trouble up here in the past.
Before Idenix, there was Facet Biotec. Seems like the same playbook here. Facet was sold not long after Baupost revealed their big stake. Premium was 67%. I am hoping for 12+ but would be happy with anything over 10 here.
OK, so this may just be an administrative move on his part? If so, then this probably drifts lower. Still, better to have such a large voting block "at the ready", should a third-party buyer emerge.
Count me in one of those after hours trades. I don't see a reason to convert now unless he wants to use the voting power. If he wanted to reduce his exposure, he could have sold his common and kept the convertible and its inherent claim on Keryx's assets. No, something is going on. Either he has a pre-arranged buyer to unload his whole stake, or he wants to do some housecleaning. Either way, I think this is good news for current shareholders. Time will tell.
Where are you reading that? From their earlier PR: "The zero-coupon notes will mature in October 2020 unless converted in accordance with their terms prior to such date."
I'm finding it hard to fathom how Baupost could accumulate a stake like that on the open market without converting. It's also interesting that these were zero-coupon notes. I also don't see how he could liquidate this holding without having a buyer ready.
I think this is another piece of the puzzle falling into place.
Noticed Guy exercised a bunch of stock without selling it a couple weeks back. That's generally done for tax purposes. That is, he thinks the stock will be higher in the future when he goes to sell it (likely 2017). Not as great as an outright purchase, but still a good sign.
I agree with you that the hold-up has always been an agreement on price. One possibility is that mgmt may have leaked the last buy-out rumor in order to juice the stock price. That is, they weren't happy with low-ball offers, walked away from the deal, and then tried to show any would-be acquirer that they should bid higher. Unfortunately, the market reaction on Friday isn't helping our cause in any way. This stock just wants to go down!
I wouldn't put much credence on rumors next time. If mgmt wants to get this done, it will happen without us knowing about it.
Glenn, nice job with your trades, especially waiting for the info to come out before taking a position. The rest of us are just gamblers! Personally, I sold 21 calls against my position, so I'm hoping this doesn't get too far away here. With RLYP, you never can tell what's going to happen!
Any read on whether the FDA has problems with the drug itself? I would guess 'no' and the odds of a clean label for AZN just went up a bit. Guess we'll have to live with uncertainty for a bit longer. Should be plenty more opportunities to trade this up and down.
I would love to learn when the reconstituted board plans on meeting next. I doubt anything significant happens until then.
I am a bit new to Keryx, so I am still trying to understand the significance of these board changes. Can anyone here explain it further? Where are the connections to Baupost? If I read things correctly, three seats are up for election. Has Baupost put forward their own candidates yet?
From the proxy material, they seem to be getting ready to raise more capital. Baupost's vote on this matter will be telling.
The free starter kits are my main concern and are running way behind my expectations. They can't even give the stuff away! Expect the growth in paid scripts to really come down soon.
I've been keeping a simple linear model of prescription growth, which predicted 700 paid scripts last month and 1056 this month. That growth rate brings us to about $16 million for the year. We are obviously running way behind that at this point. At the rate we are going, we'll be lucky to cover the interest on the new debt!
It has been painful watching the script numbers come in over the past few months, especially the slowdown in starter scripts. Management needs to sell the company before people figure out that their market is going to take an extraordinarily long time to develop.
Congrats on Anacor today. In hindsight, one of the interesting "tells" had been the call options management purchased along with the convertible. It is also interesting that RLYP skipped a convertible outright. I think that too points to a quick sale for RLYP.
Another difference between Anacor and Relypsa: Anacor's management was much more practical and just plain smart. They are a bunch of academics with little interest in building a commercial organization. In contrast, Relypsa's team is made up of a bunch of arrogant, gambling empire-builders. I think a sale will happen eventually, but they may have overplayed their best hand already.
If I had $100 million, I would totally buy this company, keep the cash, and sell the pipeline. Seems like a no-brainer, but there would need to be a significant premium over where we are now. I don't think Guy is motivated to sell. He sold off a big chunk of his equity already, so he doesn't have much skin in the game. No, he'd rather keep his cushy job going and grant himself more options along the way.
Any word of a white knight coming in would immediately move this stock to at least cash value, negating any benefit to the would-be acquirer. Anyone interested in the the company would likely be making partnership deals here on future revenue from their pipeline. Tetraphase is in a very weak negotiating position here.
I am trying to see the silver lining here. So rather than just running one P3, we now have to run two? I guess the last two years have been pretty much a complete waste of time and money. We are now a P2 company, minus some of the risk, but also minus investor goodwill and minus a superlative funding environment. The next funding round (late 2016 or early 2017?) is going to eradicate even more shareholder value.
Prediction: they will basically have to give away the rights to either eravacycline or TP-6076 just to keep the lights on. I'm guessing it will be the former.