First Niagara Financial Group Inc. Message Board

mazel tov! Incidentally I also covered today. Hard to imagine gold going down much lower, and as a short I take advantage of every drop as an opportunity to cover.

The float has been shrinking, and longs have been collecting the short rebate (which is why shares are available to short in the first place). We'll have definitive answer on may 24

Actually, some stocks like AUQ have been significantly outperforming the sector recently. They've been buoyed by analysts pumping the shares. I wonder if ANV could do better by paying a few firms to pump as well.

Started with Forbes, then Barron's, then motley fool then seeking alpha and now this company.

Lemme define pumping here:

Giving grossly optimistic production estimates is pumping (Barron's article)

Talking about the fact that the high was 8.30 without discussing why it was there (the buyback at 8.30) is pumping

Comparing to other miners without comparing to those miners that saw even more carnage is pumping (google "Overton window" to understand what happens). For example, ANV fell from over 40 to its current price of 9.15

Saying that the dividend yield is appealing without understanding why it is so high is pumping (its high because the price was crushed from the point they announced the dividend, so you are a net loser for buying)

Seeing how many times AUQ has been run up while GDX has been crushed, my new fair value target is closer to $2.25-$2.75

With a PE 5x that of its peers, overvalued by every metric and with management that thinks a buyback was smart back when the stock price was double the current stock price, AUQ is one of the most expensive gold mining stocks you can find.

It's easy to write off the guy on the message board warning people, but then again people should do their own due diligence

It should be obvious now how he became successful: suckering people into bad trades

I think we can definitively say that crewcoachmike is a clown. "paid pumper" presupposes that he was paid to sucker board readers into AUQ, and for some reason I highly doubt that

UVXY down more than 25%, AUQ down 30% since you said this

Everyone seems to be saying it is a miss on EPS ... appears the 4 cents is the real number and 7 cents is artificial

I wonder if we'll ever see him again ...

You are an idiot. There are plenty of people here who are serious

(this is the only real way to play a directional bet in this market) you have to continually scale in and out of your position. I am significantly less short than I was back at $8.30, and I expect to exit the last trade soon.

On the long side, I use the constant-dollar-exposure framework (so if the price jumps 10%, you sell 9% so that your gross exposure in dollar terms remains roughly the same). You can't really do the same on the short side, so you have to pick your points and just continue to cover with every 5-10 cent move (and obviously short every pop). Today I covered in the morning at 4.80, shorted at 5 and 5.05 (1000 shares each), and then re-covered at 4.90 and 4.85. That way, in the net I covered 1000 shares on a down day and still managed to take advantage of an intraday pop.

If I were long, the play would be opposite: buy more as the price falls and sell on every pop. To do this, you need to be disciplined and make sure you always have some dry powder in case the price falls to a new 52 week low (same thing on the short side, but if you are shorting you probably have portfolio margin and more rope to strangle yourself with)

Don't worry -- he'll say he didn't buy when the price breaks below 4

Clearly 11 is a resistance (if for no other reason than because its a round number)

Do you think the next release could be the catalyst for the move?