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Insmed Incorporated Message Board

levonchiko 20 posts  |  Last Activity: Nov 26, 2014 11:06 AM Member since: Aug 30, 2000
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  • Good luck to all.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend timing?

    by biobug Nov 13, 2014 2:44 PM
    levonchiko levonchiko Nov 13, 2014 2:56 PM Flag

    Last time i received mine on Sept 18th that alone should give the stock a nice rebound at these high levels.
    I went thru this with PTEN energy years ago and ended up making a fortune with it. don't panic just hang in there.

  • Reply to

    Closed Green.....

    by insmhistorian Nov 6, 2014 4:01 PM
    levonchiko levonchiko Nov 6, 2014 4:13 PM Flag

    Yes it did specially for my last purchases from today.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • levonchiko levonchiko Nov 6, 2014 2:25 PM Flag

    I just added 7000 shares and I think that share price will be heading back up soon.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • levonchiko levonchiko Oct 16, 2014 9:04 AM Flag

    I did provide you with a link if you need more you have to do some reading since I couldn't post the conclusion
    part either.

  • levonchiko by levonchiko Oct 8, 2014 4:47 PM Flag

    First, it is important to understand how important the Russian market is to North Atlantic Drilling. About half of all hydrocarbon resources in the world's Arctic regions are believed to lie off of the Russian coast. As much of North Atlantic Drilling's future is likely to be Arctic operations, as opposed to the limited opportunities available in other harsh-environment areas, the inability to operate in Russia would eliminate half of the company's potential market.

    Another factor to consider here is the personality of North Atlantic Drilling's Chairman, Mr. John Fredriksen. Mr. Fredriksen is a Norwegian-born shipping magnate who first made his fortune by shipping oil out of Iran during the time of the Iran-Iraq war. At the time, many countries had imposed sanctions against Iran and very few shipping companies were willing to operate in the area because of the near constant threat of Iraqi missiles that targeted oil tankers. In fact, Mr. Fredriksen's tankers were hit three times by Iraqi missiles. Mr. Fredriksen was so uniquely successful at this that he became known as the "lifeline to the Ayatollah." Mr. Fredriksen again breached western sanctions in the 1980s when he shipped oil into the apartheid regime of South Africa. In short, Mr. Fredriksen's personality would seemingly be one that could result in North Atlantic Drilling ignoring the sanctions or reincorporating itself into a country that has not imposed sanctions on Russia in order to ensure that this deal continues.

    Thirdly, there is the matter of Rosneft's ownership stake in North Atlantic Drilling. On August 25, 2014, North Atlantic Drilling announced that it is acquiring 150 onshore rigs from Rosneft in exchange for a 30% equity stake in the company. This huge equity stake makes Rosneft the second largest equity holder in North Atlantic Drilling. This also makes it more likely that North Atlantic Drilling will continue to do business with Rosneft.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • levonchiko by levonchiko Oct 8, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    As this chart shows, North Atlantic Drilling does not have a single rig coming off contract this year. Thus, the company is likely to have relatively stable revenue and operating cash flow for the remainder of this year.

    North Atlantic Drilling does have two rigs whose contracts are scheduled to end next year for which it has not secured new contracts. These two rigs are the West Venture and the West Phoenix and their contracts expire in July and October 2015 respectively. North Atlantic Drilling will see its revenue adversely impacted at that time should it fail to secure new contracts for these rigs. However, considering that the harsh-environment rig segment is much stronger than the offshore rig market as a whole and North Atlantic Drilling still has a long period of time before these contracts expire that it can use to find new ones. Thus, there does not appear to be any reason to worry just yet about these contract expirations.

    The final reason for a rapid and severe share price decline has to do with the company's recent agreement with Russian oil giant Rosneft (OTC:RNFTF). As the chart above shows, Rosneft will be contracting two of North Atlantic Drilling's rigs once their current contracts expire. In addition, North Atlantic Drilling is constructing three more rigs, which will be contracted by Rosneft once they are completed. Unfortunately, both Rosneft and its majority owner, the Russian Federation, have been the targets of Western sanctions over the past several months. The concern of many market participants is that these sanctions would make it impossible for North Atlantic Drilling to perform under these contracts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • levonchiko by levonchiko Oct 8, 2014 4:37 PM Flag

    Source: IHS Petrodata

    As this chart shows, not only has the utilization rate of harsh-environment jack-up rigs remained stable at 100% so far this year but dayrates have actually been increasing. This stands in stark contrast to the market for deep- and ultra-deepwater rigs that has caused such concern among market participants. That market has been characterized by falling dayrates and declining utilization, particularly among older rigs, as I have discussed numerous times in previous articles.

    In addition to operating only in a market segment that has very strong fundamentals, North Atlantic Drilling enjoys a very strong contract position. This chart shows all the contracts that North Atlantic Drilling currently has for its rigs:

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • levonchiko by levonchiko Oct 8, 2014 4:33 PM Flag

    The past several weeks has seen significant declines in the price of both WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, with WTI November contracts currently trading for $90.57 and Brent November contracts trading for $93.12. This has negatively affected the stock prices of all companies that are related to the oil and gas industry. In some cases, this makes sense. For example, upstream exploration and production companies can see their revenues and cash flows adversely affected when oil prices decline unless the company has fully hedged itself against such declines. However, not all companies in the oil and gas industry have their revenues directly impacted by oil prices. Offshore drilling companies, such as North Atlantic Drilling, Seadrill (NYSE:SDRL), and Ensco (NYSE:ESV), fall into the latter category. These companies instead generate revenue by contracting their rigs to oil and gas companies for a specified period of time. Over the term of these contracts, these rigs perform drilling operations for the oil and gas company, which then pays a fixed rate to the owner of the rig. While some of these contracts do include a variable component that could depend on the revenue that the oil company derives from the well that a given rig drills, by and large the revenue that a rig generates is fixed over the contract term regardless of oil prices. Thus, the decline in oil prices has not fundamentally affected North Atlantic Drilling's revenues, cash flows, or net income. The reason why the decline in oil prices has resulted in a decline in the share price of North Atlantic Drilling and other offshore drilling companies is because shares of these companies are frequently held by energy mutual funds and ETFs. As oil prices decline, investors tend to sell off their positions in these funds and this forces the funds to sell off all of their positions en masse. This mass selling results in share price declines even if the company's revenues are not particularly exposed to oil prices.

  • Seeking Alpha
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2548985-north-atlantic-drilling-sanctions-and-offshore-drilling-weakness-are-not-likely-to-be-a-problem?app=1&uprof=44&dr=1
    Summary

    North Atlantic Drilling's share price has suffered severely over the past few weeks.
    One reason for this has been the falling price of oil, but North Atlantic Drilling's revenues and cash flow do not depend on oil prices.
    Another reason for the share price decline has been the weakness in the offshore drilling industry but the company's focus on harsh-environment drilling makes this unlikely to be a problem.
    Finally, North Atlantic Drilling has been punished for its recent deal with Rosneft due to fear of sanctions preventing the deal from being executed.
    For several reasons, I do not believe that these sanctions will be a concern for the company and it will continue to operate as normal.
    Shares of harsh environment drilling specialist North Atlantic Drilling (NYSE:NADL) have been suffering from a severe price decline over the past few weeks and currently trade for $6.28, near to their all-time lows. There are a few reasons for this, but only one of them is something that shareholders should be concerned about and I believe that it is not as large of a concern as the market believes. In this article, I will discuss the primary reasons for the falling share price and discuss why shareholders need not be concerned.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    contracts

    by rooster4845 Oct 4, 2014 11:46 PM
    levonchiko levonchiko Oct 6, 2014 12:34 PM Flag

    Thanks for your concern.
    I am diversified and and hold more than enough.

  • Reply to

    contracts

    by rooster4845 Oct 4, 2014 11:46 PM
    levonchiko levonchiko Oct 5, 2014 1:49 PM Flag

    I have been averaging down so much that I have a substantial position now.(100,000 shares to be exact).
    I can't complain about the dividends of course but i have dropped a small fortune here in the last 3 weeks.
    Last time this happened to me years ago I used to own patterson(PTEN) energy and I remember taking a heavy position when she had declined but i ended up loading the boat from low $3.00's and i ended up making over 5 times my investment in the shortest time and right after i sold it around $15.00 she took off and got taken over by UTI energy.
    Even Warren buffet on a CNBC interview was saying i keep on adding to my positions every time they decline and i hope for them to decline so i can buy more and i never buy for short time but i think of it as an investment for the future to come.
    Best regrads

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    A very small company

    by bohemianclubman Sep 25, 2014 4:22 PM
    levonchiko levonchiko Sep 25, 2014 9:18 PM Flag

    Could this be it something to do with( Inhalation)?

    NEW YORK, Sept 25 (Reuters) - MannKind Corp shares were among the most actively traded in premarket on Thursday, after the company said it had closed a licensing agreement with Sanofi for the development and commercialization of its inhaled insulin product.

    MannKind said it will receive a $150 million upfront payment within 10 days of the closing.

  • levonchiko levonchiko Sep 23, 2014 2:15 PM Flag

    I guess you will see the headlines tomorrow so no sense trying to prove anything to anyone.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • levonchiko levonchiko Sep 23, 2014 1:43 PM Flag

    I wonder if they are doing the same with NADL today since I have seen many uptick blocks of 50,000 shares in size.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Summary(8:15 AM)

    NADL has seen its shares decline 40% over the past 17 days as investors anticipate that sanctions will prevent the company from executing its contract with Rosneft.
    There are several reasons why NADL may be able to execute the Rosneft contract. If the contract is executed, shares look to have +128% upside.
    NADL does not participate in the commodity jack-up space and will be less impacted by excess supply in the rig market. As such, day rates should hold up relatively well.
    Even if Rosneft contract cannot be executed, if day rates do not decline more than 20-25% (and EBITDA does not decline more than 38%), shares look to have 40% upside.
    North Atlantic Drilling (NYSE:NADL) shares have been hammered - down 40% from their recent high just 17 days ago. Investors are fearful that NADL will be unable to execute its recently inked $4+ billion contract with Russian oil major Rosneft. This fear was exacerbated by a report that Exxon (NYSE:XOM) had halted drilling in the Arctic Circle. NADL shares are now trading 15% below where they were in May before the Rosneft deal was announced. NADL shares are also suffering from the negative sentiment surrounding oil services stocks in general - the supply of rigs has increased whereas demand has waned. If the Rosneft contract is executed (and there are good reasons to believe it may), I estimate that NADL is worth $18 per share (+128%). If the contract is not executed due to sanctions, NADL still looks to have +40% upside making the stock a highly asymmetric proposition at this price.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Making the case for a Seadrill LTD.Management BUYOUT by rupert Hargreaves .
    Seadrills recent declines have made the company look cheap and undervalued.
    Billionai owner ,Mr John Fredriksen could decide to consolidate this empire.
    conditions are perfect for a management buyout.

    Sentiment: Buy

  • Reply to

    Dividend

    by apax0260 Sep 18, 2014 5:33 PM
    levonchiko levonchiko Sep 19, 2014 8:14 AM Flag

    Td Ameritrade accounts yes but schwab perhaps tomorrow.
    Too bad price declined otherwise Dividends are huge for everyone.

  • Reply to

    Just added 5000 more shares

    by levonchiko Sep 11, 2014 11:08 AM
    levonchiko levonchiko Sep 11, 2014 11:40 AM Flag

    I will only add 10000 shares here .
    Don't forget she just dropped $1.80 since last week.
    I can't see the price fall any lower but maybe I am wrong.
    Besides I am here for dividend for the next 2 years at least.
    Best regards.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Total holdings over 90,000 shares now.
    Will increase 10,000 more shares today.
    These levels are just a no brainer IMHO.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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