You are correct sir, hope is not a strategy. DJ's strategy is to hope that revenue increases enough to eventually hit 30+ percent margins so CPST will be profitable. Currently sitting at 16% with declining revenue is not a good sign that profitability is attainable within the next few years. At the current rate CPST will need to raise more funds in 6 months or so in order to be in compliance with Wells Fargo loan. No one believes CPST will be profitable in the next few years which is why insiders will not buy the stock for 3 quarters a share. The last dilution was a disaster and funds will not make the same mistake again. This leaves CPST is a very vulnerable position since DJ refuses to accept the fact that cutting costs is the only way they can survive.
At first glance it looked like CPST had a nice order (14 MW for 17 million) until you read the article and added the 6 -c800's and 16 -c30's. The shorts just looked at that and laughed.
IS DJ throwing in the 16 - c30 for free or what? This should be over a 20 million order. Can someone walk into DJ's office today and make sure there is an actual person sitting at the desk and not a baboon in a suit.
CPST will need to raise money in 6 months at the current cash burn rate. That is the reason shorts are not buying back the shares and continue to pounce on CPST. RS has nothing to do with short buying/selling. There is no indication that CPST is taking any action to avoid another dilution, hence everyone is waiting for the next dilution before buying back in
You could search google for "reverse split" and randomly select 5-10 recent RS to get an idea of the % of time the price increases or decreases in the sample over a 3-6-9-12 month period. Creating an Internet snooper to find PR's related to RS would not be that difficult for me and I am sure this is something that has been done in the past. The fact that a company is forced to RS is a very bad sign and the RS without change should result in a lower PPS over time since a losing strategy will still be a losing strategy.
Ladies, this is called logic. If this, then that. Nothing complicated about it. the author clearly states that 99% of the time PPS declines 50% after an RS. If that is true THEN you would be richer than Warren Buffet given you would make 50%, 99% of the time.
My left nut is literally smarter than all 4 of you idiots combined.
If what you say is true, and I have no way of verifying it without extensive data and analyst tools, then you should be a billionaire by now since you could make money shorting stocks that RS 99% of the time.
This is comical and is a huge red flag regarding honesty, integrity, and intelligence. DJ does not give any guidance and instead instructs analysts to use backlog to measure next years revenue. What a load of sheet considering the HUGE gap between actual revenue and backlog potential. This clown isn't even close to reality. They will need 40 million per quarter over the next 2 quarters just to meet last years revenue. With revenue in decline over the past 2 quarters DJ is flat out dreaming...I don't care how many disclosures you announce about future market conditions, when you are not even close to reality you need to pack your sheet and get the #$%$ out.
RS has no material impact on short/long positions (see below)In any event, more cash will be needed in a year or less so another offering will be needed unless DJ takes action and cuts cost now. Any RS will be followed by dilution/ short positions.
From investopdia -
"Neither a long nor a short position is materially affected by a stock split - the value of the position does not change. So, if a company has announced that it will split in six months, it should have no bearing on the attractiveness of the short investment."
I agree with everything you said, but there is more that needs to be done. Capstone has another 6-9 months before more cash will need to be raised and limited options for raising more cash. When you are bleeding out the first order of business is to STOP THE BLEEDING. Right now CPST is bleeding all over the place and has limited time and options available for survival. Since there are no signs of CPST taking action to stop the bleeding the smart money says CPST will die.
1. Cut head count by 20% STARTING WITH MANAGEMENT.
2. Leave California for Texas/Arizona, etc.., that will cut costs be another 20% or more. Too late now....
3. Start paying a % in salary with stock as Andy marsh from PLUG power did when PLUG was sucking wind. This will increase insider ownership and reduce cash burn.
4. Cut R&D costs as nothing new is making it out of the store and it's just a cash burn at this point.
The response was in the DL notice. The Company will monitor the closing bid price of its common stock and will consider various possible options if it does not appear that it will return to compliance.
At this time it is business as usual for DJ & Co. i have a hard time believing that Wall street would invest in Capstone given that last disaster of an offering, share count, declining revenue, inaction by management to cut costs, and cash is running low again. 40 million minus Debt owed to the bank leaves them in a dangerous position and shorts smell blood. A reverse split will be needed unless a miracle happens.
CPST has better margins than FCEL, and a cheaper product with lower revenue and a wider array of applications. Why is CPST at .75 cents? Margins matter of course, neither is profitable and I would expect CPST to profitable before FCEL. CPST is suffering because there is very little faith in CPST management. DJ's only strategy is wait for revenue to increase enough to make a profit eventually. Now that revenue is in reverse that strategy is in the sheeter.
The take away from the Titanic event is this, if there is a buffoon at the helm of the ship disaster is not far behind. CPST is steaming toward the iceberg field and DJ is not taking any action to avoid the danger.
I sympathize with CPST investors as I was one of them. The only upside is my tax bill to uncle sam will be a few thousand less. I am simply posting my opinion as I see it.
CPST has not collapsed? Take another bong hit and eat some cookies. CPST was forced to raise money due to poor management at 1.70, now at .74. 330 million shares outstanding, .056% held by insiders, and no cost cutting to mention.
That is a collapse of biblical proportions and shows what the street thinks of CPST management.
It's times like these that separate the men from the boys, and DJ is still wet behind the ears. The lack of insider investment, lack of cost cutting, share count, and overall poor management is killing CPST. A letter of non-compliance is a couple of days away. DJ is unable to make the tough choices to get costs inline with revenue and the result is what we have here today, 3 quarters per share. The street is tired of DJ's strategy of wait for revenue to increase enough to make a profit. At this pace, it will be 5-7 years before CPST is profitable and CPST will not survive that long.
If 87%, and 70% short 2 days before dilution does not trigger an investigation by the SEC, nothing will. What is the probability of that happening? DJ needs to get his house in order or make like horse poop and hit the dusty trail.
In my opinion this is a clear indication that insider information is being shared or stolen. I like the technology but there is something very strange going on at Capstone.