Upton: With all due respect, having you agree with me using your broken-record anti-republican mutterings leaves me totally conflicted thinking, on one hand, you have a clue and, on the other, you are clueless. Leave the politics -- especially your inconsistent and sometimes absolutely illogical mutterings -- off the investment board, will you? Your obvious agenda is not only getting old, it is lame. YOU are a democratic Rick Perry and I will let you figure out if that is an insult or a compliment. Lex
DCF: How can you say it doesnt matter; of course it does. Moreover, the issue is not April or August, but now April (with a hoped for mid year reserve report) vs December. One page says resting through the summer, but another page says it wont be on line until the very end of the year -- so likely NEXT year.
Switching gears, did anyone else notice the new Eureka Hunter slide that contemplates throughput for the pipeline several years out and over I billion mcf? Current pipeline has a design allowing for 350k, but now GE comes out with a triple that limit projection?
Finally, does it bother anyone else that the average production growth chart of 145% continues with the BS approach of using 3 years of average production only to use a BS eoy target exit rate for 2014 to obviously mislead the reader? Of course, this is on top of showing an 2013 avg production rate that includes 3 quarters of EFS production MHR did not produce and over 2000 boepd of shut in production.
I have been in love with MHR for several years, but I just dont get GE's penchant for what is obviously becoming on ongoing pattern of BS representations in the presentations that constantly change, are intentionally misleading, and proving consistently UNreliable.
I was hoping to see an end of GE's shenanigans, and now I am seeing more and more of them and I dont like it at all. JMO Lex
I need to look back, but I thought GE just said the Farley wells would be in production by mid-summer and, now, two weeks later, it is the end of the year? We NEED those wells to be on line, along with the Stalder wells, to be able to book more reserves. Again, it was GE's comments about these wells being on line by summer that led him to comment (as I recall) that MHR would be doing a mid-year reserve report. That report was going to allow for an expansion of their revolver. And now? How could so much change in two weeks?
JMS: Thanks for reviewing the new presentation and bringing this to our attention. Lex
Yes LINE has a history of ramping up on or about May 1, and in the past there has always been a quarterly distribution with an ex-dividend date around May 5 that explains why. Who knows what the trend will be this year based on monthly distributions.
I agree, post exercise; however, during the several week window period surrounding the redemption, the PPS will drop simply because the money being called is from existing shareholders, who will sell current shares to fund new share purchases (assuming there is a profit spread). Alternatively the current shareholders will not exercise the warrants, in which case MHR gets less new money and the potential for a post exercise pps increase is diminished. At least that is the way I trust it will play out.... hopefully, there will be a profit spread for all of the longs to benefit from....and....if there is, that will mean more HURT for the shorts. :-) Lex
Good luck with that timing move Slab. Always good to have extra margarita dollars lying around. But, I think it has become tough to time MHR. I admit I too caught the timing wrong on this most recent run up when I sold about 1/3 of my position around $7.40 or so in late December thinking bad production numbers would come out, it would drop to a buck cheaper (like you reference), and I would get back in, but it just kept going up. Heck it went right past $7.40 to over $9 and while I fared nicely on my January option spreads, my share count is down a bunch.
Then earnings came out and, while it dipped to $7.90 or so, I missed the bottom and, again, here it goes up on what appears to be a solid base. The longs really have to like this most recent ascent since the PPS is climbing against the limited liquidity back story AND, like today, it is going up on lower than average volume.
Anyways, I don't have much confidence being able to time this PPS anymore, so I am just holding on to what I have and living the boring life.... Nothing wrong with that, but be careful not to trade yourself out of too large a position because, in retrospect, I wish I had just sold about half of what I did. Anyways, good luck to the longs and here's wishing you safe travels in your big rig. Lex
Upton: Your H...d on for Bush is showing again. Why is it you blame GW for absolutely everything, but never give any "credit" to the democratic congressional majority for the last half of his tenure that controlled most of his moves? You are an illogical broken-record with your constant political rants. Can you maybe get back on point with discussing investments on an investment message board? Maybe just consider it? A little bit?
G8: Thanks for the heads up. SWN has been focused on the Brown Dense to at least some significant degree for the past year or so. How long to you think it will be before this segment of its business really takes off? Looking at 2016 option premiums, it appears a lot of people share your enthusiasm. Lex
Fastball, Just because I disagreed with you, you feel compelled to throw out the know everything card? You made a claim and I simply responded using your specific words as the launching point, and noting the specific numbers and reasons I was relying on in my reply. Isnt that how a discussion board is expected to work? As for the substance of your latest message, I admit I don't understand the recharacterization of your prior post, nor any new point you are trying to make. Lex
Forgive me, but I think this note is wildly mistaken. You claim cash flows "cant even dent the expenditures," when the capex is $87 mil for the YEAR and the pipeling had $18m in revenue for the QUARTER and it is just now ramping up? even without further growth, which is undoubtedly coming, this works out to $72m of annual revenue on your $87m of capex -- somehow it doesnt take sharp analysis to see that IS a MAJOR dent in in last years expenditures. Moreover, this $72m is a long term revenue stream vs one time buildout expense/. I will acknowledge the big reversal in capex involving Williston, but think that is primarily a question of focus on Utica in order to create reserve value while simultaneously considering sale of Willison. As for the rest of the note, I think it makes no sense at all and is simply wrong -- particularly given the strategic value of the pipeline in getting our product from a new territory to the market. Lex
Gulfport continues to rock along upward with good well results and excellent economics including $1.97 a share of net income for 2013. Now up to 165,000 Utica acres and over 32m boe reserves in Utica. Their acreage is in a better part of the play and they already have a number of Utica wells on line, so MHR comparisons involve some element of disconnect. That said, it appears MHR should be able to book some substantial reserves in Utica once we get more wells on line this year. Plus, CHECK THIS OUT, GPOR bought 8200 Utica acres with 1000 boepd production from Rhino Resources for..... wait for it ..... $185 million. We are talking $22,500 an acre! Even if super sweet spot acreage, sales like that bode well for MHRs NAV.
What an absolutely ridiculous economic argument you make. Cant pick which one is sillier: the comment on the people growing up in the 50s and 60s having it all on a silver platter, or the one about raising 5 or 6 kids on minimimum wage, or the one about the only thing that matters is tax inequality. What a long winded lecture from someone that obviously doesnt have a clue about history or economics.
I am not taking issue with your second paragraph as much of what you say there is fairly accurate, but that first paragraph is nothing more than a fool's jibberish.... and that's coming from someong not in your target audience you are so interested in telling off. Please go back into your hole until you have a bit more common sense.
Never bad to take some profits off the table, but making a complete exodus seems odd since you are only 2 months away from what I suspect are LTCGs. Assuming you are in the 28-33% tax bracket, you are going to be paying 30% tax on those gains vs 15% LT rate so you effectively just "bought" your own 15% decline when you were worried about 20%
As for the equity issuance, I sure hope it is not 40mil as we already have about 15-17 mil of shares coming with the 10% dilution warrants. 20 mil shares at 8 would be 160m and 150m from warrants would get MHR 300m -- which I think should be plenty given potential asset sales
Hamrick: thanks for pointing out the MHProduction matter. Interesting that the subsidiary and operations is being put up for sale before and independently of the $100m of related acreage we spoke about in a prior thread. I wonder how GE has established the value he seeks to sell for independent of the acreage; well equipment and gathering lines??? Maybe this sale involves producing wells and producing acreage whereas the other $100m is undeveloped acreage?
At some point I need to call investor relations and ask this and some other questions I have. For example, GE ducked the question during the CC about what Stalder was producing a month in by commenting on it being off line for fracking of another well on the pad and the analyst failed to ask the obvious follow up "well what was the well producing right before hyou took it off line?" From what I have read on some other company sites, the super high pressure wells have a very significant initial decline rate and I wonder what it is at Stalder. No doubt Stalder will be a significant producer, but some of the other area wells have had 50%+ rate declines in the first 30 days, so it will be interesting to see how Stalder unfolds.
thanks for taking the time to read the sec filing. Lex
I am sorry. It was not my intent to argue, I just thought your comments were extended interpretations of the actual discussion. Out of money is not the same as having liquidity issues. I agree that most of the topics you mentioned are significant concerns, but didnt think discussion of those terms involved crises, which I considered to be at the core of your post. Again, sorry as it was a personal reaction. Lex
You may well be right about this being a good time to add, but if GE issues equity, we will immediately see an even better time to add so you may want to save a little powder.
If you have been around a long time, like I have, you may remember what happened in May 2012 when GE last issued equity and the PPS went from 6+ to below 4 in a heartbeat. I recall because I had some option spreads that took an unexpected beating even though the upper leg helped to limit my pain at least a little. In any event, if MHR issues equity, my guess is the price will drop for a few days or longer and THEN will be the time to load up your boat and mortgage the kids etc etc. Lex
Nomo: I certainly agree with the sentiment that MHR will survive and, over time, move back up, but nearly everything you call scary seems to be grossly exaggerated to make your point as I am not sure anyone has posted that MHR is out of money, or that ND values have declined, or the pipeline longer worth its previous value. Seems to be you are calling out posters for distorting reality in a message where you are doing so yourself. Or did I read your note all wrong?
Yes, but there seems to be some inconsistency between you calling those posters out and actively participating in the same type of postings that result in "ignored" posters. I used to have YOU on ignore given your constant name-calling spats with Welbie and see you even started a thread yesterday about "where's woobie" trying to incite him to post more BS rants than are already on here (without Woobie and You going back and forth fifty times a day.) Maybe you could let a sleeping dog lie for the benefit of us all. :-) Lex
I take it you must be logicaldeduction posting under a second name since you reposted the same message from two weeks ago. Apparently, you really want a response. Read my notes again and you will realize your premise is mistaken as I made no comment regarding his so-called respect "not to be singled out."
Apparently your comprehension is limited as the thread is about two things: First Ruby's desire to not have all readers included in the first email and his view thinking that was offensive to the others; however, the vote was 13-0 on no one taking offense. Second, I responded to his note on guruism and the unreasonable inference that I was looking to him as a mentor, when I just asked his opinion.
Bottom line is maybe YOU need to rethink your post because your premise is illogical and simply wrong.
Nice article on Motley Fool suggesting that yield is secure with valuation very low and plenty of parental drop down business potential. Nice run up the past few days. Welcome to the club. lex