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Linn Co, LLC Message Board

lexpress56 103 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 8, 2014 8:36 AM Member since: May 9, 2007
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  • Reply to

    COP Bakken Reserves

    by g8trgr8t Apr 14, 2014 12:18 PM
    lexpress56 lexpress56 Apr 15, 2014 8:54 AM Flag

    Symon: You refer to "what we longs consider fair value," What do you understand that value is and how does it compare to the analytical pieces Zeits published this morning on Seeking Alpha?

    I am not challenging you as right or wrong, just asking an even-keel question in an effort to ascertain your views as to what the fair value is that you refer to when using the term.

    Would you please offer your thoughts? thanks, Lex

  • lexpress56 lexpress56 Apr 14, 2014 2:38 PM Flag

    Cuda:

    I agree AR has had some very big IR numbers, but the numbers are generally lower in the western zones and the more liquids, the lower the estimated EUR (by a pretty healthy margin I might add). Note in the press release that the EURs in the condensate and rich condensate zone are basically 1/3rd and 2/3rds the EUR rate of the rich gas and dry gas zone wells. What is great for MHR, is that MHR operates only in these higher EUR zones of the play (using AR's estimates anyways)..

    Again, I keep coming back to the conclusion that so long as some of our Utica acreage is not too far south, MHR should end up looking really good in the Utica given its acreage is in the preferred zones as early production histories are playing out. Until we hear test results on Farley 2 and 3, I guess we simply wont know for sure and, even then, we might just be getting a limited glimpse into the future. GL. Lex

  • AR has bounced back with up market, but it was down over 11% earlier today after announcing it was cutting EURs for its most western Utica acreage by 30% based on production histories in Condensate and Super Rich sections of its acreage. Significantly, AR did not cut its EURs for the zone where MHRs Farley wells are located, which is not in those highest two BTU content zones of the play. That appears to be the reason that MHR did not get an "associated hit" to its PPS. At least I hope so.... Lex

LNCO
29.84-0.64(-2.08%)Jul 11 4:00 PMEDT

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