Haven't read it. Sounds like I should. Reserves are economically recoverable. As the price goes up, reserves increase. As technology changes, reserves increase. You may be right, but it is very hard to know. Remember what reserves were in the 1970's. Much more than that has been extracted in the last 40 years
good analysis, and at $150, capital flows back into drilling and fracking and the price plummets again. The only uncertainty is the time frame. Might not happen by 2018. Some of us remember. In the late 1970's, the experts predicted we would be out of oil by now. And this was not just government experts. Exxon invested over $500 million in the Colony oil shale project back when $500 million was a lot of money based on their prediction that oil would go to over $100/barrel. And of course, eventually we run out oil because it is a finite resource, but this is a lot longer in the future than previously thought.
the bear market starts long before the recession, I use 6-12 months as the typical lead time. And of course, we don't know we had a recession until after the GDP data are announced / finalized. In fact, the DJ is one of the official leading indicators for the economy. It is often wrong, however. The old economist joke is that the stock market has correctly predicted seven of the last four recessions.
the early 1970s was a much larger decline in the market than 1982 and so was 2000-2002. Although I believe that fear of deflation was the driver in those four bear markets.
market bottomed in 1974. Inflation continued to increase through the 1970s until it was double digit into the early 1980's. Do not remember which year it was but remember making double digits in my money market fund for quite some time. Paid taxes on over $10,000 of taxable interest /dividend income when I was making less than $50,000/yr. Had a few stocks then but they made much less than my money market fund generally.