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Smith & Wesson Holding Corporation Message Board

libertee4all 208 posts  |  Last Activity: 19 hours ago Member since: May 3, 2014
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  • It is now a resistance level IMO...I believe this stock will become a buy again at some point....just not yet...looks to me like we will drift toward the $8 range now.

  • Reply to

    Molymet won't let MCP go under..

    by thewzrdaz Sep 18, 2014 9:15 PM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 11:44 PM Flag

    But if I were looking get total control of MCP, that is the way I'd play it. They diluted the company 10% by letting the Oaktree finance happen but they could be playing possum, making it look like they are fed up. If the company is going south, Oaktree just threw a bunch of money away no matter what the option terms are, and they aren't stupid either.

  • Reply to

    Analyst Revisions

    by rabies_00 Sep 18, 2014 3:10 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 9:54 PM Flag

    That should keep the ground hogs and coyotes alert!!! -and still bring home venison if the situation arises.

  • Reply to

    Analyst Revisions

    by rabies_00 Sep 18, 2014 3:10 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 8:27 PM Flag

    It's Alpo....lol

  • Reply to

    Analyst Revisions

    by rabies_00 Sep 18, 2014 3:10 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 8:25 PM Flag

    The bolt guns are fine.... I should have stated that. My gripe is with their breech guns. Years back S&W slapped their name on a #$%$ made bolt gun. Nothing to brag about. The Venture is a nice US made gun. Very functional and accurate. Won't win any beauty contests. lol. Problem is that the sales levels hardly move the earnings needle for S&W....

  • Reply to

    Analyst Revisions

    by rabies_00 Sep 18, 2014 3:10 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 6:10 PM Flag

    I'm just not a big fan....one exception. An early TC handgun that I shoot a factory 10 inch 30 Herrett and aftermarket 12 inch .556 barrels with. Both scoped. I just don't care for breech break rifled guns in general. I have found them to be inherently not as accurate(especially compared to bolt action, but even falling block single shots like a Sharps or the Ruger model 1 are far better IMO) ...the T/C design exposes the shooter to serious danger should their be an excess pressure issue. The guns have been known to open and release gas rearward. This is especially dangerous if the gun is shot with a shoulder stock., where the breech is close to the shooters face. ( Breech breaking shotguns operate at much lower pressure levels). . T/C has a minuscule % of the market from a business standpoint.

  • libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 3:48 PM Flag

    Are you aware that Alfred Nobel was the inventor of dynamite, cannon and other armament development? I even have an old 16 ga shotgun that is "Nobel" brand. Modern "nitro" (smokeless) powder is a derivative of dynamite. Until Nobel came along, there was only "black powder" which is much less explosive....

  • libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 3:27 PM Flag

    When someone has three 20 yr olds break into their house with baseball bats or tire irons in hand, I hope the homeowner still has the right to protect themselves loved ones, and property with a gun of their choice. Guns are tools. They are extremely efficient at their intended purpose. They level the playing field between size, strength, age and numbers of adversaries. Like any other tool, they can be used for good or evil. The deficiency of human civility is the problem, not the efficiency of guns.

  • Our friendly mutual funds will start "window dressing" for their 3rd quarter reports which end 9/30. None of them want 52 week low stocks in their holdings.. This is a stupid ritual that has been going on for decades and many funds use 9/30 as the end of their fiscal year as well. This adds tax selling to the mix.... SWHC should show additional weakness between now and month end and then bounce a bit in early Oct based on these practices. Nothing is certain of course. .... But the odds are in favor of this other things equal. For those out there who insist on continuing to defend this stock, remember it is near its 52 wk low while the Dow is near a 52 wk high... Haven't you figured out something is wrong with this picture?

  • Reply to

    Analyst Revisions

    by rabies_00 Sep 18, 2014 3:10 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 10:41 AM Flag

    There are too many more important issues. NICS become a statistical vagrancy.. I don't look at them at all anymore. For starters by the time the info is released, the information is already baked into the stock. As I said earlier, SWHC stock price is actually a leading indicator to NICS...

  • Reply to

    Analyst Revisions

    by rabies_00 Sep 18, 2014 3:10 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 10:36 AM Flag

    There is one other issue. We are going into hunting season. Retailers and distributors already are uncomfortable with their inventories. They aren't about to take on additional handguns at a time when long guns have the highest relative demand to handguns....SWHC's weakness is in the long gun hunting market. T/C is #$%$ IMHO...

  • Reply to

    OVERSOLD

    by frey_guy17 Sep 18, 2014 9:50 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 10:09 AM Flag

    The only thing that matters is the "market value". You can assign any value you want for the stock "in your mind", and it won't matter to anyone but you. This is similar to, "my house is worth $1mil"...but there is for sale sign outside and the house can't be sold for 1/2 of that...

  • Reply to

    Analyst Revisions

    by rabies_00 Sep 18, 2014 3:10 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 9:27 AM Flag

    I love animals so I don't want to beat a dead horse out of respect, but Smith is swimming up stream right now. I believe the distributors are holding too much inventory right now and expect discounting to become more prevalent so they are hesitant to put in additional orders. Retailers will try to sell what they have in their showcases. SWHC might actually miss sales just because they don't have product on display. The customer who wants a specific SWHC gun will order it. The walk in guy or gal that just got a CPL will buy what the clerk sells them. There's lots of good pocket guns out there other than SWHC. I'm expecting to actually see a quarter with a loss when they take write-offs. It happens to companies all the time. The gun industry has always been a feast and famine business. There is way too much capacity presently. Most of it privately held. No telling what they are doing. SWHC is like playing poker where SWHC and RGR have all their cards face up on the table while the other players have them at their chests. SWHC isn't going broke, there is just more trouble before things get better IMHO....

  • Reply to

    Someone needs to through SWHC a lifeline...

    by libertee4all Sep 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 12:36 AM Flag

    I will likely be long this stock again at some point in the future...but as I have stated in an earlier post, at this point I don't think it would be above $8...

  • Reply to

    Someone needs to through SWHC a lifeline...

    by libertee4all Sep 16, 2014 10:31 AM
    libertee4all libertee4all Sep 18, 2014 12:33 AM Flag

    I meant "as in the case of a swimmer, gone under the surface, which in this case is $10.... So I was suggesting that $10 is the psychological support level that would tend to hold the stock up for a while...when it broke below it on the third time it would stay below it. Nothing scientific here... Just a fanciful metaphor... and no I'm not short. You know me, if I was short I'd be boasting about it. lol. But seriously. I don't short ... I don't use margin. EVER.... I don't believe those who do accomplish anything by posting opinions on this board either...long or short.

  • libertee4all libertee4all Sep 17, 2014 7:49 PM Flag

    What are you "lol"ing about?. The stock has sank from $17 to $10....you speak as though this stock has no issues. They wouldn't be the first company to buy back stock only to later reissue it at a lower price than they bought it for. As to restating earnings, it often comes with greatly reduced guidance. It gives management a bit of a "pass" claiming things really didn't that get that much worse on the grounds that in reality they weren't as good as they had originally said they were. I'm making illustrations of things I have seen other companies do that were in the situation SWHC us currently in. They are only possibilities.

  • libertee4all libertee4all Sep 17, 2014 11:38 AM Flag

    If we assume your 10 multiple (which I happen to agree is reasonable) proves to be accurate, then we are left with the issue of what to plug in for the "E"... Not only are forward earnings cloudy, we aren't even certain past earnings are accurate with as many restated earnings we see these days. If there is some kind if "clear the decks" maneuver, it is often accompanied by restating past earnings as well. "We overvalued our inventory"... Or "we didn't take enough depreciation". Et al.... Beyond that, stocks rarely have a soft landing on their proper valuation. It is almost always the case they overshoot on both the upside and low side. Using your 9.20 valuation as an "assumed" correct valuation, my guess is the stock would bottom about 20% below that before turning back up: $7 and change... Heavy emphasis on the "my guess" part.. Lol.... The real "need to know" part of this equation is "how plugged up is the distribution channel?" IMHO.

  • libertee4all libertee4all Sep 17, 2014 4:56 AM Flag

    That should work for you. Not a bad time to have some cash also. Even though our fiat money will become worthless over a long period, there is way too much complacency in the short run and we have a rookie at the helm. He'd rather be playing golf, and despite his 20 handicap, he's still a better golfer than Commander in Chief. Having just commemorated the 13th anniversary of 9/11, I reflected back to the horror this country endured especially during those immediate days following the attack. The loss of humanity cannot be calculated, but the financial setback was also significant. If you recall the first tower was struck 45 min before the opening bell on Tuesday. The market didn't open until the following Monday. When it did, it was hard to find a bid on most anything. Folks on margin were screwed. This ISIS outfit is way more sophisticated than Al Qaida ever was IMO. They have one mission. To bring us down. Then there is the issue of sovereign debt insolvency. Don't misunderstand me. I don't wake everyday expecting my house to burn down. But I do make sure my homeowner's premiums are paid on time.

  • libertee4all libertee4all Sep 16, 2014 5:29 PM Flag

    I'll unlatch my holster in $8's. I usually scale in and out of stocks.

  • libertee4all libertee4all Sep 16, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    I've been out since $15...

SWHC
9.80-0.24(-2.39%)Sep 19 4:00 PMEDT

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