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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

libfrom23 40 posts  |  Last Activity: 12 hours ago Member since: May 17, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Another SPAC Fraud

    by rutlando 16 hours ago
    libfrom23 libfrom23 12 hours ago Flag

    ULIN is a component integrated into the system they provide, other elements of the system are designed inhouse with proprietary technology. Does not seem to be as big a deal as zzg seems to be making it into. Few integrators design every single product they use.

  • Reply to

    Market overreaction?

    by zzg123 18 hours ago
    libfrom23 libfrom23 18 hours ago Flag

    patience is everything in investing, if you get batted around by the daytraders you have only yourself to blame.

  • Reply to

    Market overreaction?

    by zzg123 18 hours ago
    libfrom23 libfrom23 18 hours ago Flag

    They reported earnings of $0.60 for 2015, not bad. The cash balance of $25M is consistent with the pro forma projections. Cash was dependent on the number of share participating in the merger vs. tendering. The $40M you keep referring to was pre-merger.

  • Reply to

    what's a fair value for this?

    by thns2244 Apr 19, 2016 11:39 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 22, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    funny you mention RLJE... I believe a lot of the assets sold into the SPAC were, shall we say, less than desirable. I don't need to say more, but whether it was RLJ or Al Sharpton, neither are people I would ever invest with. I think if either had a public company, I would short it.

  • Reply to

    what's a fair value for this?

    by thns2244 Apr 19, 2016 11:39 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 22, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    Will, I've been investing in SPACs decades, they were called 'blind pools' before being called SPACs, and my experience is that with a SPAC or any other public company, if you don't do your homework, your results will vary. I like buying things that everyone else hates because often times the price is right. I was a large buyer of a spac called Chardan North (now Hollysys, HOLI) -- yep, that's right, a Chinese SPAC -- does it get more gruesome? I've made at least 500% on that investment, not including the warrants. I think ABIL a year ago at $10 was not a good risk/reward, I think at $6-7, now with increasing clarity on their future, it's interesting -- it's in the right space, share price is cheap enough to discount a lot of hair -- to make money, we'll have to see how management performs.

  • Reply to

    what's a fair value for this?

    by thns2244 Apr 19, 2016 11:39 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 21, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    I'd just add that the SPAC structure is a little bit different than a "reverse merger" -- RM's have a bad rap because they do not involve any vetting of the mgmt., their financials, their customers, etc. A SPAC on the other hand does involve this to some degree and that's part of what you're paying the sponsors (Cambridge) to do. From the target's standpoint, the SPAC has some attractions - it's instant public listing in the US with sponsors who presumably have some experience, provide partial liquidity to the target founds (i.e. a little cash) and capital to grow -- most reverse mergers simply involve a shell that has no assets, no mgmts., just a ticker symbol essentially.

  • I'm not a huge technical guy, but there are 3 charts that do seem to repeat with a fairly high level of success. If you google Investors Business Daily: "The 3 Most Common and Profitable Chart Patterns" and then have a look at the 2nd ("Double Bottom") and then look at BPY's monthly chart of the past year, it's almost an exact overlay. The good news is that according to IBD, we are now in the sweet spot to by buying. Fundamentally, BPY's pretty cheap, and throw in a 5% dividend and it looks all the better.

  • Reply to

    LPG Spot rates go sub-$20k

    by libfrom23 Apr 4, 2016 11:49 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 19, 2016 9:32 AM Flag

    Now $13K.... watch out!

  • Some very odd behavior, tons of "5-share" trades in HBP late in the day. This is telltale sign of 'trading bots' or HF activity of some type. It's odd and the company should ask their specialist what the heck is going on.

  • Reply to

    LPG Spot rates go sub-$20k

    by libfrom23 Apr 4, 2016 11:49 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 12, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    Spot at $15K today... it's all about supply and demand -- saving a few bucks on fuel isn't even a drop in the bucket when rates plummet from $75k to $15k.

  • Seems to be the view of investors and Wunderlich. I think we'd all like to know what the terms of their JV with Heitman are, and why an institutional investor is buying into this JV instead of buying JCAP shares... probably a much better deal. It is becoming increasingly worrisome that JCAP may just be in the public market to "get big" with fees that are driven by assets under management rather than in driving shareholder returns, the stock has already been nearly halved since the IPO.

  • Rates continuing in dive-mode. Before yearend it's going to get very messy in this sector.

  • Reply to

    End of day spike - to be short-lived

    by pinky76123 Mar 2, 2016 6:31 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Mar 31, 2016 2:22 PM Flag

    pinky, if what you had to say had anything whatsoever to do with stock prices, then you should have shorted the S&P500 five years ago. GAAP is an accounting construct which sometimes correctly reflects the realities of running a business and sometimes does not. Most professional investors do not pay much attention to GAAP numbers, but have their own proprietary methods of valuing securities. However, I appreciate your enlightening us on this "grand conspiracy." Best of luck to you.

  • libfrom23 by libfrom23 Mar 31, 2016 2:17 PM Flag

    Anyone notice the filing last night which modifies (upward) comp to Jon Vrabely in the event of a change of control transaction. It's very interesting, you generally start seeing these little tweaks in advance some type of strategic transaction.

  • libfrom23 libfrom23 Mar 31, 2016 10:47 AM Flag

    i think the key driver is fed posture. I'm not a daytrader.

  • Reply to

    End of day spike - to be short-lived

    by pinky76123 Mar 2, 2016 6:31 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Mar 29, 2016 3:24 PM Flag

    You have a lot of negatives to say for someone claims not to be short?

    Anyhow the insider buys are all the more relevant as they are from people in the company who don't have the same amount of wealth as the CEO (all the more relevant, even though they are smaller bites). Secondly, I'm not implying that insiders are somehow trying to 'put on a show' to push the price up, quite the opposite, they are buying because they have their eyes on the future (not a couple day trade).

    As for your obsession with GAAP accounting... would you care to walk us through the many, many, many changes of what's acceptable and what's not over the history of GAAP accounting... no, I didn't think so -- Can you at least explain why almost every major S&P 500 company offers non-GAAP figures? (It's all a right wing conspiracy, right?)

    Lastly, you are completely mistaken about AMRC's debt, much of which is non-recourse to the company. If you bothered to listen to the last few conf. calls, you'd know this.

  • Reply to

    End of day spike - to be short-lived

    by pinky76123 Mar 2, 2016 6:31 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Mar 25, 2016 10:51 AM Flag

    Since March 3rd, 8 new Form 4s have been filed, totaling in excess of 20,000 shares, or $100K... including the first buy by a member of the board who had not purchased for several years. The buyers don't include George Sakellaris, who has been a large buyer for past year, but I would not be surprised to see him active in the stock.

  • Reply to

    What is goig on?

    by barrytmiller2000 Feb 25, 2016 1:50 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Mar 22, 2016 2:50 PM Flag

    Rates now down to about $20K and most likely headed lower. As I've pointed out repeatedly here, there is a HUGE amount of new capacity delivering this year, there is no way the market will be even close to balanced by latter part of 2H16. Spot rates will sink, as will share price. Timecharter rates will remain higher, but at levels no owner wants to commit to (unless they are desperate). Funny how an analyst today finally notices this -- it's been written large for at least 4-5 months, and the management of LPG have certainly signaled their concern by backing off earlier plans to introduce massive dividends, etc. Wise choice, but the stock will be back in the single digits before long.

  • Reply to

    open tomorrow

    by amichael1981 Mar 7, 2016 10:46 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Mar 8, 2016 9:49 AM Flag

    Not such a bloody open, but I was disappointed that they aren't even projecting sufficient earnings to cover their distributions, and talking about the non-GAAP cash earnings is fine, but seriously, if they are putting out a pile of stock and non-cash comp to management, that MUST be considered as well.

  • Reply to

    Cutting through the crapola...

    by nadatownie Mar 3, 2016 5:56 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Mar 7, 2016 11:43 AM Flag

    Thank you, I appreciate your self-vaunted wisdom. I'll inform Warren Buffett that his approach is irrelevant. I am curious why someone with your level of enlightenment would bother with something even more archaic than Ben Graham... yahoo message boards, seriously, lol???

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