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Compass Diversified Holdings Message Board

libfrom23 38 posts  |  Last Activity: May 20, 2016 11:00 AM Member since: May 17, 2007
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  • Reply to

    Change in control

    by libfrom23 Mar 31, 2016 2:17 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 20, 2016 11:00 AM Flag

    ...And last nights filing proposing a rights plan... (purportedly to protect NOLs) ... read the tea leaves folks... either HBP will consolidate profitable small shops into their organization... or some big fish will do the same with them.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Legal question

    by informalaffair May 11, 2016 11:02 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 19, 2016 10:33 AM Flag

    thns, the stock market is all about credibility and expectations. Although I agree that this is a real business with real and potentially innovative products, I think the mgmt., particularly the Cambridge people who seem to have gone radio-silent (probably at the advice of some overly assertive lawyer--they all default to 'just don't say anything') have created a deficit of credibility, which needs to be rebuilt by executing and communicating the company's plan.

  • Reply to

    Legal question

    by informalaffair May 11, 2016 11:02 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 18, 2016 10:43 AM Flag

    Been through this many times before -- even if they had legit claims (aside from the share price drop), the lawyers will very quickly figure out they're wasting their time. Part of the reason the ambulance chasers do this is for marketing -- they love having their name pop up a couple times a day on the broadtape -- eventually someone's going to call them out for this frivolous waste of space.

  • Reply to

    Egregious Fraud

    by rutlando May 6, 2016 11:21 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 10, 2016 2:51 PM Flag

    rutlando, Robert Johnson not only sponsored the SPAC, he ALSO contributed the #$%$ assets to it -- so he was not the fool in that transaction. I wouldn't touch anything Robert Johnson is involved with, with a 100 foot pole.

  • Reply to

    Egregious Fraud

    by rutlando May 6, 2016 11:21 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 9, 2016 10:41 AM Flag

    rutlando, do you seriously think CAMB guys would go into this deal, having done full due diligence on ULIN, if it were not part of a proprietary system with significant profit potential. One or both of the CAMB officers are Harvard MBAs, in other words, hardly naïve or unable to do thorough financial analysis. You, on the other hand, are on the outside, with NO real knowledge of the ULIN system, making all kinds of absurd allegations to support what is obviously a daytrading short. Pathetic -- I hope you don't have children that ask you what you do for a living.

  • Reply to

    Buyback

    by libfrom23 May 3, 2016 10:06 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 6, 2016 10:18 AM Flag

    How about rollback acquisition, sue Israeli's, get as much money back as possible, and payout div. of as much as of $8-9/share net of legal.

  • I'd like to know why we haven't heard a peep out of the Cambridge guys, were they even on the conference call? Its about time they stepped up and took some responsibility for the mess they've created. The Israeli management team have shown that they have little or no experience with investor relations. Staying quiet at this point, is not helping anyone.

  • libfrom23 by libfrom23 May 3, 2016 10:06 AM Flag

    I understand that ABILs cash is supposed to be devoted to growth, however, they would be remiss not to institute a buyback authorization -- if they had a buyback for 1MM shares, it would not overly strain the cash and would be sufficient to soak up far more than anyone with weak hands wanted to get out of.

    Time to start buying, I think there's a lot of misunderstanding about the company's prospects for 2016, and this is exactly what creates an opportunity.

  • Reply to

    Another SPAC Fraud

    by rutlando May 2, 2016 1:54 PM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 2, 2016 5:02 PM Flag

    ULIN is a component integrated into the system they provide, other elements of the system are designed inhouse with proprietary technology. Does not seem to be as big a deal as zzg seems to be making it into. Few integrators design every single product they use.

  • Reply to

    Market overreaction?

    by zzg123 May 2, 2016 11:03 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 2, 2016 11:24 AM Flag

    patience is everything in investing, if you get batted around by the daytraders you have only yourself to blame.

  • Reply to

    Market overreaction?

    by zzg123 May 2, 2016 11:03 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 May 2, 2016 11:24 AM Flag

    They reported earnings of $0.60 for 2015, not bad. The cash balance of $25M is consistent with the pro forma projections. Cash was dependent on the number of share participating in the merger vs. tendering. The $40M you keep referring to was pre-merger.

  • Reply to

    what's a fair value for this?

    by thns2244 Apr 19, 2016 11:39 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 22, 2016 10:36 AM Flag

    funny you mention RLJE... I believe a lot of the assets sold into the SPAC were, shall we say, less than desirable. I don't need to say more, but whether it was RLJ or Al Sharpton, neither are people I would ever invest with. I think if either had a public company, I would short it.

  • Reply to

    what's a fair value for this?

    by thns2244 Apr 19, 2016 11:39 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 22, 2016 10:20 AM Flag

    Will, I've been investing in SPACs decades, they were called 'blind pools' before being called SPACs, and my experience is that with a SPAC or any other public company, if you don't do your homework, your results will vary. I like buying things that everyone else hates because often times the price is right. I was a large buyer of a spac called Chardan North (now Hollysys, HOLI) -- yep, that's right, a Chinese SPAC -- does it get more gruesome? I've made at least 500% on that investment, not including the warrants. I think ABIL a year ago at $10 was not a good risk/reward, I think at $6-7, now with increasing clarity on their future, it's interesting -- it's in the right space, share price is cheap enough to discount a lot of hair -- to make money, we'll have to see how management performs.

  • Reply to

    what's a fair value for this?

    by thns2244 Apr 19, 2016 11:39 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 21, 2016 11:44 AM Flag

    I'd just add that the SPAC structure is a little bit different than a "reverse merger" -- RM's have a bad rap because they do not involve any vetting of the mgmt., their financials, their customers, etc. A SPAC on the other hand does involve this to some degree and that's part of what you're paying the sponsors (Cambridge) to do. From the target's standpoint, the SPAC has some attractions - it's instant public listing in the US with sponsors who presumably have some experience, provide partial liquidity to the target founds (i.e. a little cash) and capital to grow -- most reverse mergers simply involve a shell that has no assets, no mgmts., just a ticker symbol essentially.

  • I'm not a huge technical guy, but there are 3 charts that do seem to repeat with a fairly high level of success. If you google Investors Business Daily: "The 3 Most Common and Profitable Chart Patterns" and then have a look at the 2nd ("Double Bottom") and then look at BPY's monthly chart of the past year, it's almost an exact overlay. The good news is that according to IBD, we are now in the sweet spot to by buying. Fundamentally, BPY's pretty cheap, and throw in a 5% dividend and it looks all the better.

  • Reply to

    LPG Spot rates go sub-$20k

    by libfrom23 Apr 4, 2016 11:49 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 19, 2016 9:32 AM Flag

    Now $13K.... watch out!

  • Some very odd behavior, tons of "5-share" trades in HBP late in the day. This is telltale sign of 'trading bots' or HF activity of some type. It's odd and the company should ask their specialist what the heck is going on.

  • Reply to

    LPG Spot rates go sub-$20k

    by libfrom23 Apr 4, 2016 11:49 AM
    libfrom23 libfrom23 Apr 12, 2016 10:23 AM Flag

    Spot at $15K today... it's all about supply and demand -- saving a few bucks on fuel isn't even a drop in the bucket when rates plummet from $75k to $15k.

  • Seems to be the view of investors and Wunderlich. I think we'd all like to know what the terms of their JV with Heitman are, and why an institutional investor is buying into this JV instead of buying JCAP shares... probably a much better deal. It is becoming increasingly worrisome that JCAP may just be in the public market to "get big" with fees that are driven by assets under management rather than in driving shareholder returns, the stock has already been nearly halved since the IPO.

  • Rates continuing in dive-mode. Before yearend it's going to get very messy in this sector.

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