Dark... I agree that I would have like to see some sort of run up prior to the announcement as well... but I believe in stocks that are certainly much more widely/known and held... you'll see a run up prior to earnings announcements and what have you. But still very few people know about what's going on with FNGC. And most of the few that DO know are insider's... and they can't be doing much of anything before the quiet period of that announcement.
This should be very interesting.
More importantly Joeh... two wells should be in PRODUCTION by next week.
I won't make predictions in terms of price. The market will dictate ultimately where it should be... based upon what is then known and the prospects for the DB3 well... which supposedly is very promising... but time will tell.
That makes sense Joeh. So here... think about this. Essentially what Cornell just did was refinance Falcon's deal and give them access to a total of $35 million... at what amounts to .56 cents a share. The only reason Cornell would make that money available above the current share price... would be only if they were really confident that there was gas in the ground.
So that gets us up to .56 cents... which it could easily do by next week when they announce that 2 wells are now producing. And even then... the price needs to go above .56 cents in order for Cornell to make any profit on that. And even then... you're still talking about 63 million shares... which at current levels is not going to be sold very quickly. So if you extrapolate the whole situation out... Cornell is banking on the fact that in the next few weeks and few years... that the volume and liquidity of this company is going to increase substantially... where they can start taking some of their money out of the deal and turning a profit. They won't do it all at once... they'll probably take a little bit at a time to 1) at least pay themselves back and then determine from there how much of a return they really want... but it all depends upon what's really in the ground.
So the bottom line is... the fact that they did the financing at .56 cents and put as much as $35 million on the table is a VERY bullish sign. From what I know of Cornell... that $35 million is in the top eschelon of financing that they typically get involved in. That's a big statement. Think about it... would you be loaning $35 million to anyone if you did not have some sort of assurance that you would be getting it back. Of course there are no guarantees Joeh... but the implications of the filing are very positive.
Dark... I won't shoot from the hip. I'll check on it. Definitely feel free to call and check for yourself as well. I would be interested to see if your take was the same as mine. In Falcon investor relations talk to Jeremy.
Candidly that was stupid... Once these two wells start producing... I think at least .56 cents is right around the corner.
Ok... here's the deal. And you should all call investor relations to clarify on your own... just in case I am missing any important nuances of this.
Essentially this filing represents an additional $35 million dollar line of credit to falcon. In exchange for the $35 million... Falcon gave Cornell the right to exercise +/- 63 million shares at .56 cents... which equates to approximately $35 million.
Cornell has the ability to exercise these shares at any time in the next two years. They have ZERO motivation to sell them now... because anything that is below .56 cents... and they wind up losing money. But here's the other bottom line... that they wouldn't give a typically penny stock company a line of credit of up to $35 million unless they were very encouraged on what is occuring.
Here's what we should know by next week: More detailed data on Gemini and Live Oak wells... and the fact that both of those wells will likely be "producing" by next week. Additionally DB3 in Louisiana will also start drilling likely by the 15th of this month.
Bottom line Dark... after getting your note last nite I was a little nervous about this filing... but after reading through it and getting an understanding about what now amounts to a total line of credit of $35 million I am much more encouraged. Bottom line... there is no way Cornell would give them access to MORE capital... if they weren't excited by what it is the ground. And if there is really great stuff in the ground... then Cornell will likely take their time about exercising and selling any of those options... because they stand to gain quite about for themselves. The interesting question is... what sort of return do you think Cornell is expecting to get out of this? Time will tell.
Bottom line... I'm still all in. Thanks again for the filing. Please all follow up on your own to substantiate any or all of it.
Here's a couple of bottom lines...
- At .38 cents... the 60 million shares equates to approximately 22 million dollars. Ultimately they can exercise them anytime between now and the next 2 years.
- What's more important is to take a look just at the preliminary spreadsheet numbers at the bottom of the filing. If the numbers are certainly anywhere close... small dilution whenever it occurs will just be a drop in the bucket.
All that said... I am following up on all the other details this morning. As soon as I talk with them... i will get back to you.
I missed the call... because I didn't know that their investor relations office closed at 3 p.m. California time. I plan to call first thing in the morning.
That said... Armed has done a bit more homework than I on the subject.
That said... scroll down to the very end of the filing and then scroll up a few pages of that spreadsheet... to get a sense of what revenue they anticipate from the PROVEN reserves.
Apparently there is at least some information that is known on the existing wells that is included in these estimations.
Is it standard procedure Dark that information like this would be filed with the SEC first... before disclosing it to the general public?
While the filing seems to suggest that some shares could be sold over a 2 year period of time... causing some dilution... but when you consider some of the revenues that they anticipate from this... the small dilution that they mention... appears to be a drop in the bucket.
That said... we will all wait on hard data that is probably due out within 2 weeks on the wells that have already been drilled. But the real potential of the company lies in their DB sites in Louisiana... that I believe are going to start being drilled by the middle of February.
I plan to be on the phone with investor relations first thing in the morning... so they can give me the bottom line of the filing.
By the way... where did you find that? Is there a site search for all SEC filings???
Dark... thanks for this. I have a meeting with investor relations in about a half hour. I will let you know what I find.
Like a good woman... I too certainly hope these wells are not dry!! That said... I hear these wells should start getting excited in approximately 2-3 weeks. Still holding 40,000 patient shares that I originally started slowly buying at .65... but bought the majority of those at about .30. That said... keep doing your homework. Have a great nite.
Remember Joeh... it's wicked important to do your own due diligence... even though freeflywa was approximately right... you shouldn't take our word for it when it involves thousands of your dollars. If I had time over the course of the next couple of weeks I'd fly to the drill sites myself. Because unlike some of the cancer studies with oncy... at least you could actually see the drill rig in place and possibly talk to a few people on site. But short of that... there are some sources out there that you should be checking on yourself. If you have close to $20k in this... you shouldn't be relying on us.
A regular split will likely happen in March (same time as last year)... when it hits about $80. Look at the one year chart.
You're a moron. He has been at the helm of both of these for multiple years now. And now Pixar AND Disney both compliment Apple even more now.
Imagine for a second every disney classic film on your kids' ipods that is then hooked into your car's DVD system for those long road trips... or nite's in front of the integrated ipod/Disney entertainment system at home.
Just the beginning folks.