The French are fatter and lazier. Germans don't have time. But even old American stuff is better than most of their stuff. The big international question: is someone already providing the best of Netflix's content? Dunno. Do you?
Because they are day traders going to the wallet after a great day. Happens all the time. While others sweat worrying about what tomorrow may bring, they sleep like babies.
What's gotten NFLX so high is near perfect execution for two years - strong subscription growth quarter after quarter, adding content while staying within available cash, aggressive marketing in the best viewer segments, etc. Plus competition has not materialized. IMO if management gets defensive, they lose. If they remain aggressive, a $500 plus stock value is very possible. Even saturated they have lots of options RE pricing, special broadcasts, cable deals, advertising, new content, supplemental pay-on-demand for top films, etc. What I do not understand (along with everybody else) is how they will be received in foreign markets - and the competition there. Is offshore potentially huge? Is Netflix management enlightened in that regard? Dunno. That's my two cents . . .
Traders this morning were certainly aware of it. Great action this AM, now correcting as traders take profits. When NFLX gaps the open, ride it.
You need to enroll in Fin 101. Techie stocks like multiple hundred value shares to keep the pissants out.
Big Sky, The blond Chotaw mystery healer and I were thinking about pointing the Cessna in your direction later in the week. How's the trout fishing in Montana this year?
You don't want the wishy-washy, do you? Netflix underplays expectations - so they can almost always beat. It'll have to be a BIG beat to pop up to $500. If $400 and $500 are the options, I side with you.
Netflix management sets low expectations so they beat - like many corporations. The key is subscriber growth.
Sure, why not? The sky isn't falling - just a Malaysian airliner. The Ukraine/Crimea has always been a hotbed.
It will take HUGE synergies to bring this stock to a reasonable 20X PE. Right now the stock looks 30% overvalued. I don't short w/o insurance, so I've got MW on 'Call Me if it Gets to $42' snooze alarm. Good luck.
I doubt as yet minor cord cutting or Netflix has much to do with it. Netflix doesn't have sports, weather, news, HBO, etc. Cable is definitely in a 'make more efficient' mode though.
'Motivated cognition.' I love it. Is that a disease? I guess I have it. Obviously ISP's who can gig high volume distributors or users would prefer someone else take the rate hit. So we watch the fight. It's temporary squabbling (the business press is short on subject matter) that shouldn't have much impact on Netflix either way.
It's the volume IMO. According to one research outfit Netflix is 50% of broadband usage. Even if it is less, Netflix is by far the biggest capacity eater. Cause congestion? Pay for it.
Bago, You've beating the same drum since NFLX was $53 and you were predicting imminent bankruptcy. While I share some of your scepticism, the fact is Hastings has executed the transition to streaming with skill, margins are improving and competition has not materialized. I have confined my NFLX activity to day trades (much less so these days because the bloom is off the rose) so I don't have a dog in this hunt. But if there is a reliable indicator, it is this: do the opposite of whatever you recommend.
Fraud? Nonsense. NFLX couldn't generate a gap up immediately following the upgrade - obvious weakness. Upgrades appeal mostly to retail buyers.
'The old 'they' theory. Ha, ha, ha. And here I thought 'they' were still looking of aliens in Roswell NM.
Netflix could go higher. But with Q2 reporting two weeks away there is also risk - possibly sluggish subscriber growth because zero content has been added for months, viewers turning to soccer, the NBA playoffs and summer kicking off. The incentive not to drop service: existing customers are grandfathered from price increase. Grandfathering was a smart play.