Maybe. As George used to say when he fitted me many years ago, 'Johnny, we are just a little fat right now.'
Eight years into FED policy (which has kept interest rates effectively zero) the expected return on stocks has changed. It used to be that a 15% return on stocks was good. Passbook paid 4%, mortgages 6%, etc. Stocks had higher risk and therefore paid more.
Not today. Zero borrowing cost has ruined (or changed) the risk-reward equation. Now a 20X PE retailer seems reasonable. The market is still adjusting to thisidea.
Erog MW stock price looks reasonable.
Yes, it is overvalued. And it's price is unsustainable - except with hyperinflation. Ditto 'free' mortgage and car buy money and our painless national debt.
The next crash? I don't know when.
Shoot lawyers and politicians. They created this mess.
Anything is possible near term with a flier like NFLX. But in the longer term? Two observations:
1. The company's strategy of using ORIGINAL CONTENT to differentiate its product has been a bust thus far.
2. Whether due to cost control or more aggressive demands from content owners, the Netflix film library has degraded significantly over the past 24 months. They have lost hundreds of their best titles. Anyone using the service over the years will have noted this.