Maybe. As George used to say when he fitted me many years ago, 'Johnny, we are just a little fat right now.'
Eight years into FED policy (which has kept interest rates effectively zero) the expected return on stocks has changed. It used to be that a 15% return on stocks was good. Passbook paid 4%, mortgages 6%, etc. Stocks had higher risk and therefore paid more.
Not today. Zero borrowing cost has ruined (or changed) the risk-reward equation. Now a 20X PE retailer seems reasonable. The market is still adjusting to thisidea.
Erog MW stock price looks reasonable.
Yes, it is overvalued. And it's price is unsustainable - except with hyperinflation. Ditto 'free' mortgage and car buy money and our painless national debt.
The next crash? I don't know when.
Shoot lawyers and politicians. They created this mess.
Anything is possible near term with a flier like NFLX. But in the longer term? Two observations:
1. The company's strategy of using ORIGINAL CONTENT to differentiate its product has been a bust thus far.
2. Whether due to cost control or more aggressive demands from content owners, the Netflix film library has degraded significantly over the past 24 months. They have lost hundreds of their best titles. Anyone using the service over the years will have noted this.
you need to educate yourself on basics. mw and josb earned hard dollars - eps. they combined. the economics have not changed. those of us who played the merger/acquisition made fortunes.
you whine - a small timer
Your group: rookies who experience one store and then overdraw conclusions.
Stocks are about making money, not your single store experience.
You might consider T-Bills instead of stock trading. I bought MW a little above $40 and sold just shy of $51- inside eight weeks. Do the Math. My entry/exit are fully documented on this site.
Years ago I made some serious money trading this stock. Heck, on one over-reactionary stock market downer I put 40% of my entire corpus into ANF. I was rewarded with a 30% gain in ten days.
The stock never me lost money. But the company became uncertain. I went to other stocks. Days, months and years passed. ANF was simply too 'iffy' for me to trade.
It is back on my Watch List as of today - for potential buy. All these years later.
Good luck all,
Don't confuse one store's content with profit. Or maybe your 'short' refers to size? The Company's EPS future looks solid. MW might drop back to the $47 range based on projected income, but not much further IMO.
Disclosure: No position at this time.
Bagofswags has proven himself (or herself) to be a moron. Remember @ $52 when Bagofswags was saying that Netflix was going bankrupt?
HOWEVER, at $478 NFLX is seriously overvalued IMO.
Netflix management pursued original content imagining themselves as a creative network. Since anyone could rent movies, they desperately needed a competitive edge.
From what I have viewed thus far their original content is a bust. They have sacrificed a superior movie library to finance it. I have been positive on NFLX (and made lots of money with them) but at this point the future seems iffy. What has saved them is lack of competition.
Rule 1 is to find an investment strategy that is compatible with your personality. Rule 2 is 'Purchase at the Bottom.' It is more important figuring the initial 'buy bottom' than the 'sell top' which comes later. If you buy at the bottom, there is practically no risk. Make money. Fire up the Cessna.
My buy fundamentals - which is why I am $8/sh up (this stock) in less than two months. Talk is cheap.
'Pumped?' What evidence? MW has value in this high market. Pays a div, has FWD PE of 14.
Disclosure: up nearly $8/sh since initiating in mid-December.