I got dropped the stock years ago too - but not before making several hundred thousand dollars with it. Fire up the Cessna!
I agree the loss of EPIX is huge. My analysis: (1) 2-3 years ago they realized that content provider liabilities would never allow decent profits. (2) Ergo they had to shift business models. They have quietly discarding some of their highest quality content and the associated liabilities ever since. (3) The EPIX divorce has such huge content implications they had to get 'out front' about taking the plunge.
Net-net: Hastings wasn't just BS-ing about trying to make Netflix into an HBO. He has bet his company on it.
'Money always goes where it's treated best.'
Aphorisms are no substitute for intelligence.
Oops - another aphorism.
I suspect none of Netflix's original content (except for Orange) has attracted many subscribers - despite what Netflix claims. Being able to stream Breaking Bad probably has ten times of the impact of the lot.
Despite what you think, price and content go together. Existing content providers refuse to provide many top films at prices Netflix can afford. Would you pay a little supplemental (say a buck a movie) for top quality older films? I would. I think that is the fiscal reality of making such films available.
I don't think 'the market rewarded and wanted original content' at all. What led them to original content was ever high demands from existing content providers and prospective liabilities that would sink any ship.
As you point out, they have some revenue prospects - a higher base price and ad revenue. They could also restore top older films (and joint venture new ones) with supplemental PPV.
You make a good point. In business you don't have to be good to succeed - just better than the other guy. That's Netflix's situation. Their library is going down fast. But the alternative is spending $2.99 for one movie with the competition. Even in decline, Netflix has value.
Netflix's acknowledgement this week that they have been dropping large numbers of top movies in order to focus on original content represents a fundamental change in Business Model. Sure, they have been saying 'we want to be HBO' and 'we are focusing on original content' for some time. But this is the first time they have admitted they are abandoning their proven business to do so. See the Bloomberg discussion. It's interesting.
It's been evolving that way for two years - NETFLIX dropping many of their best films as they spend on original content.
There are still thousands of movies in their library - mostly rotten ones. But it hasn't affected their growth so far.
I tend to agree with you.
Cash flow has been reasonably steady (even some stock buybacks) with no accounting games or skimping. So they have plenty of cash to maintain divvies.
I specialize in intermediate trades from a stable of about 40 stocks. KSS has been a consistent winner. I've traded the stock several times during the past ten years and never made less than 23%.
The reason is two-fold: (1) the stock trades within a predictable range, and (2) the stock market retail sector over-corrects creating buy opportunities.
The floor has been around $45. The upper end is $55. Run the chart. It is blatant.
I am starting to buy now (if $49 is available this morning) and will accumulate more in the days to come if the stock reaches lower.
The reason for support is partly the dividend as you say. But it is more. At this price the forward PE is just 10X. Most important, a lot of people range trade KSS. $45 support is common knowledge.
Range play companies don't stay in the zone forever. I suspect KSS has one play left.
No. In fact, they've been eating their seed corn (they haven't renewed hundreds of their best films) just to stay even.
I'm not sure what your point is. My view: (1) It is unclear that ANY of Netflix's original content has contributed materially to growth; (2) Netflix has drastically cut its library of quality older films and British programs to finance original content, as anyone who uses the service knows to be the case; (3) the reason for Netflix's impressive growth continues to be value proposition (a few bucks a month for lots of on-demand video entertainment) not original content.
Don't be too quick drinking the Cool-Aide RE Netflix's claims about the success of their original programming. I have not watched 'Orange is the New Black.' It may be good. 'House of Cards' is dark and forgettable (Spacey taking Netflix to the cleaners?) not even close to a top HBO series. Every other Netflix series has flopped.
I've become a 'subscribe one month in six' because Netflix's library quality has gotten lousy. It had been much better. The deterioration started a couple of years back when Netflix failed to renew over 1000 top movie titles.
This may be part of a winning strategy by management - praying for success with their original content investments while at the same time dramatically improving margin by limiting the library to zombie movies and network retreads.
We live interesting times.