I think you are right. I'm up $12 and would normally have sold when it bottomed a second time at $285.
Not unless Netflix experiences a disaster. It was a remarkable value at $53. The brand was worth more than that. But I think $150 at some point is possible.
That's not really accurate. He slid into Netflix quickly without making a ripple. Through contracts and small lot transactions he could be more than one-half liquidated right now.
The thing that might concern longs: what rumors if any started the liquidation yesterday? Look at how orderly it wa. Obviously one or more large funds selling. Did someone get a call about Netflix sub growth? Do they have a predictive subscriber model? Did someone spot a combination of brokerage identifiers suggesting that Icahn was selling? We will never know.
We've got many things that could be cleaned up - lawyers taking too much of the GNP; vast disability abuse; K-12 Education the most costly and worst performing among industrial nations; many public pensions excessive; over one-third of Medicare spent on diseases caused by bad habits.
But clean them up? Get serious. Our inefficiences are the accumulation of our political will. Nothing will happen until a state balks, their people refuse to pay federal taxes and set a better course providing a model for others to demand. That ain't likely.
Nobody said representative government works.
PS. What has struck me for some time with Hastings saying that Netflix's future rests with original content is how puny the results have been: promising Lilihammer with Steve Van Zandt aborted; Hemlock Grove a bust; recycling Arrested Development fails, Orange TBD; House of Cards wins Emmys but Spacey's dark version not nearly up to the British original.
Fascinating content that grows viewership is rare.
A correction right now makes sense: Icahn's investment just became LT gain; U.S. debt worry and two year DJIA run has Funds taking profits, particularly vulnerable stocks; NFLX stock is five times + its level of a year ago; NFLX holders go to the sidelines awaiting Q3 earnings and subscriber figures.
The slide is just 10% from NFLX's peak. A steep correction underway? Dunno, and neither do you. The big risk for longs: Netflix misses on subscriber growth.
You make me laugh - thinking 'they' conspiracists are pumping. An American institution called Penney's is on death watch. Sales are better and they project cash. It's news. The market reacts. End of story.
We need military bases in Texas - what with the Chicoms massing on the border.
Media outlets have had their own slants since GW was President - George Washington. Did you just fall off the turnip truck?
The bigger question has to do with regulated private insurance, extending life and Medicare. Why should five people's annual wages be spent extended my life a few years with a transplant? Why should you pay for cancer I caused by smoking? Why should I pay for your meds, amputations and even a scooter because you pigged out and got diabetes?
Medical coverage without personal responsibility is a bottomless pit we are incapable of dealing with. The rational 'let's get merciful and give them hospice' approach I like has no political allies.
I can't imagine any savvy investor sitting on a stock simply because he doesn't have attractive options in other stocks, and Icahn is as savvy as they come. So I don't think the 'better source for his money' argument holds.
Any public announcement of a significant reduction in his position will adversely impact the stock. He makes the market, just like he did when he purchased setting the $53 bottom.
So I don't think he waits for a downtrend. My guess: he's hedging with options, short sales and will unload expediously.
The US has already lost leadership in most industries, a continuing process that began when nations obliterated in WWII recovered and began competing in the 1970's.
Republicans AND Democrats supported the debt. The alternative in the aftermath of the 2008 Crash was Hoover-type retrenchment like which had been a disaster. Nobody is sure how to solve the debt crisis.
My Republicans potshot Obama. In truth their differences are small, two nats sitting on an elephant's back, neither offering solutions.
Amazon has been borrowing to cover negative cash flow. They may take on Netflix successfully, but thus far all they have to show is the same library, a high upfront fee and zip promotion.